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Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 6, 2016 9:40:37 GMT -5
I never said the partnership was good. In fact all along I felt like we were getting sand bagged. That doesn't change the dire financial situation we are in. It was a catch-22 situation Yes I know, as bad as things are, I would rather this than another year of Sanofi bleeding us out. I hope diabetics boycott Sanofi. After Genzyme and MNKD, I can't imagine that SNY will have much luck parterning with other small biotechs in the future. Toujeou already has some problems and Praulent may have its own. They need a constant supply of new drug possibilities. Here's to their pipeline drying up! |
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 6, 2016 9:48:42 GMT -5
Yes I know, as bad as things are, I would rather this than another year of Sanofi bleeding us out. I hope diabetics boycott Sanofi. After Genzyme and MNKD, I can't imagine that SNY will have much luck parterning with other small biotechs in the future. Toujeou already has some problems and Praulent may have its own. They need a constant supply of new drug possibilities. Here's to their pipeline drying up! Hear hear indeed. I say don't get mad, get even. Come on Al, Duane and team, secure our finances with a deal, get back to real selling, preferably with a competitor of Sny, and set the ship on a long-term path upwards with deal after deal these next few years. Yes it is time to play some hardball, we deserve and God knows the millions of diabetics deserve it. |
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 6, 2016 9:48:50 GMT -5
If you thought the sny deal was bad, they have zero bargaining power with a next potential partner. Especially considering sny kicked us in the ass as they showed us the door with their comments on profitability. SNY comments ( www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/reuters-america-update-1-poor-sales-prompt-sanofi-to-pull-plug-on-mannkind-inhaled-insulin.html ) A Sanofi spokesman said Afrezza continued to suffer from a low level of prescriptions, despite substantial sales efforts. "The product never met even modest expectations and we do not project Afrezza reaching even the lowest patient levels anticipated at the time of entering the license and collaboration agreement, while costs are projected to remain very high for a significant period of time," he said. I've been theorizing that SNY couldn't lower the price due to the cost structure. If they lowered the price, what would be the point of selling afrezza? (from a business point of view, not a health point of view). If MNKD survives for a few years and keeps control of afrezza and tries to pick up sales and marketing, then we'll get a much clearer financial picture. Till then, we can only guess. But any company mnkd wants to partner with aren't going to be happy with what they know so far in terms of insurance coverage, pricing, sales, and mnkd's current financial condition all of which, as you point out, gives mnkd zero bargaining power with any new suitor.
I don't think it was high COGS. I think it's more likely that what happened is that Sanofi targeted early diabetes patients. More than once, Matt mentioned "patient profiles" or "the right kind of patient". What shareholders need to understand (especially with all this talk about suing Sanofi) is that Sanofi's initial target of early diabetics may have been at the insistence of Alfred Mann himself. Mann has long promoted the idea that early use of insulin would pay huge dividends to the long-term health of the patient. He may have been too eager to break into that market, IMO.
I think MannKind has plenty of margin in Afrezza to support an aggressive marketing campaign, but they targeted a population that is largely prescribed extremely low-cost oral anti-diabetic (OAD) medication. Sanofi tried to convince 3rd party payers to replace their current pennies-per-treatment with dollars-per-treatment in Afrezza.
Sanofi's initial commercialization target for Afrezza was presented by VP Andrew Purcell, so this is NOT speculation. Based on the low cost of OADs like Metformin, Afrezza didn't stand a chance without further empirical evidence that the treatment warrants consideration as the new gold standard for first treatment of diabetes.
Sanofi pricing of Afrezza was too high, whether as a mistake or intentional, especially if the target was to move early diabetics from cheap OADs to insulin. Good idea medically, but no payer was willing to provide coverage for an expensive, unproven treatment.
Some day, Afrezza's ability to repair the pancreas before it becomes too damaged may be proven beyond doubt. For now, however, MannKind needs to target the low-hanging fruit. Technically, MannKind can only claim non-inferiority to RAA insulin. I've estimated Afrezza costs and they'll still make plenty of profit at even the most conservative raw material, labor and burden expense. MannKind should match or even BEAT the price of RAA insulin and let the market decide for itself which prandial works best.
Go after the low-hanging fruit. Worry about paradigm-changing treatments later...
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Post by curiousdoc on Jan 6, 2016 9:55:49 GMT -5
I can't understand the blind optimism here regarding this split. Yes, sny sucked. But there is a reason mnkd partnered. They do not have the resources nor means to go it alone, 100℅ profits or not. If you thought the sny deal was bad, they have zero bargaining power with a next potential partner. Especially considering sny kicked us in the ass as they showed us the door with their comments on profitability. SNY comments (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/reuters-america-update-1-poor-sales-prompt-sanofi-to-pull-plug-on-mannkind-inhaled-insulin.html) A Sanofi spokesman said Afrezza continued to suffer from a low level of prescriptions, despite substantial sales efforts. "The product never met even modest expectations and we do not project Afrezza reaching even the lowest patient levels anticipated at the time of entering the license and collaboration agreement, while costs are projected to remain very high for a significant period of time," he said. I've been theorizing that SNY couldn't lower the price due to the cost structure. If they lowered the price, what would be the point of selling afrezza? (from a business point of view, not a health point of view). If MNKD survives for a few years and keeps control of afrezza and tries to pick up sales and marketing, then we'll get a much clearer financial picture. Till then, we can only guess. But any company mnkd wants to partner with aren't going to be happy with what they know so far in terms of insurance coverage, pricing, sales, and mnkd's current financial condition all of which, as you point out, gives mnkd zero bargaining power with any new suitor. A few years? Lucky to make it through 2016 unless I'm missing something... Without this unfounded hope of Al pouring more of his millions into the company |
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Post by kc on Jan 6, 2016 10:50:42 GMT -5
Al can't be the savior on this issue. The need a big time investor/partner. I hope they find it in time to save the company and our shareholder value. My avg is way too high at about $6.50 and that includes a lot of shares in the $2.00 + range. This is a tough position for the company. It needs to be sold to a investor or company that has the ability to get the product on the market. Sanofi wanted to cream the market by pricing it high and that failed. The next company needs to price it below the market perhaps even closer to the price of Generic Insulin pens. I don't know the cost to produce our product but I know that Insulin is cheap and the big boys make a bunch of money on it. The control the pricing and have moved it up higher than it needs to be. A smart company like a Teva could price very competitively and beat up the big boys.
I am sure that Al and his advisors know that they need to put the company up for Sale. I sure hope that we get a fair price and that I get close to my AVG cost per share. But If not than I have learned a very big lesson. Hopefully I get a pay out on my Mannkind stock and not a huge carry forward loss.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 6, 2016 10:59:53 GMT -5
Al can't be the savior on this issue. The need a big time investor/partner. I hope they find it in time to save the company and our shareholder value. My avg is way too high at about $6.50 and that includes a lot of shares in the $2.00 + range. LOL...I'm still going to be assigned shares in January for $5.00 puts sold a year ago and $3.00 puts sold a few months ago. Never thought the stock would get that low, but I'll take them! They will raise my average above the $1.99 it is after my purchases today, but what the heck, I already paid for them as they have virtually no value today and I did get paid $1.57/share last year. BesiThat leaves me with a cost on them (the $5.00 ones) of $3.43. If I had bought them straight out a year ago, I would have paid the full price. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 11:33:26 GMT -5
Yes I know, as bad as things are, I would rather this than another year of Sanofi bleeding us out. I hope diabetics boycott Sanofi. After Genzyme and MNKD, I can't imagine that SNY will have much luck parterning with other small biotechs in the future. Toujeou already has some problems and Praulent may have its own. They need a constant supply of new drug possibilities. Here's to their pipeline drying up! I was thinking the same thing but when a small biotech has no other options for cash they have no other choice. If they have choices then obviously they may second guess SNY. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 6, 2016 12:02:09 GMT -5
I never said the partnership was good. In fact all along I felt like we were getting sand bagged. That doesn't change the dire financial situation we are in. It was a catch-22 situation I've been skeptical of the "sandbagging" theory. Now I'm hoping it is true. It seems the theory that they wanted to bankrupt MNKD in order to grab Afrezza for themselves is dead. The question now (if it is even relevant at this point), is the reason they might have gotten into a deal and then sandbagged... to increase the likelihood that a game changing threat would fail in the market? because old SNY CEO believed in Afrezza and new one never did? If SNY was sandbagging then it seems more plausible that MNKD could make some recovery... perhaps find a partner, though that would likely require convincing others that SNY indeed was sandbagging. If SNY wasn't sandbagging that would seem to bode ill for prospects... as it would at a minimum seem to indicate that a business model acceptable to a large pharma is something that has proven difficult to make work. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Jan 6, 2016 12:06:06 GMT -5
I wonder if SNY made a low ball offer to Al before terminating the partnership? That would say a lot.....
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 6, 2016 12:43:54 GMT -5
...and I wonder if Al would accept ANY offer if he thought that BP was planning to mothball Afrezza.
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Post by kc on Jan 6, 2016 12:47:15 GMT -5
...and I wonder if Al would accept ANY offer if he thought that BP was planning to mothball Afrezza. I don't think that all wants to see MannKind go into bankruptcy. He is not stupid. Everybody loses with it going into bankruptcy. I think he needs to get the right commitment and sell it. Otherwise somebody will buy the bones in the bankruptcy proceedings and we all lose. |
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Post by scottiemac on Jan 6, 2016 12:47:51 GMT -5
My avg is way too high at about $6.50 and that includes a lot of shares in the $2.00 + range. This is a tough position for the company. It needs to be sold to a investor or company that has the ability to get the product on the market.... Hello, Google? |
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Post by frumenti on Jan 6, 2016 13:12:34 GMT -5
Great post mnholdem: I have been on Afrezza for about 6 months and take no basal or other diabetes medication. I was able to get
Regence to cover with a $95 copay during a 12 month trial. I changed insurance to United Health Care(AARP) to get a premium low enough to cover
cost of Afrezza if coverage is dropped by Regence. So far UHC has refused to cover Afrezza until I try Humalog. I am submitting an appeal to UHC
based on the fact I am 81 and too old and shaky to self inject and the fact I take no basal insulin or any other medication for diabetes.
My fasting BS is around 120 taken in the AM and my A1c was 6.3 on my last test. UHC is only concerned with the cost.If we do not have to
give SNY 65% off the top Afrezza will become competitive particularly when no basal insulin is required. In my opinion Afrezza has no
side affect. Sticking a needle in your arm is not listed as a side effect for Humalog so coughing should not be listed as a side affect for Afrezza.
The FDA allows a label of "Human Insulin" for Afrezza because the molecule matches human insulin. How can Human Insulin have a bad side effect?
No creature(except for a few bugs) can live without insulin.The legions of people who insist on natural foods and medicine will love Afrezza given the
chance. MNKD should run some ads to natural living publications.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 6, 2016 13:25:01 GMT -5
You just reminded me of an advertisement I suggested just after Afrezza won FDA approval.
"Afrezza. What nature intended."
Of course I was ridiculed for including scantily-clad "Adam & Eve" type actors... 
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Hey, that kind of advertising worked great in the '60s! In fact, the TV ads in some European countries are still pretty racy today! I'd post a video of one of my favorites, but it would violate board rules.   |
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Post by frumenti on Jan 6, 2016 13:59:11 GMT -5
I think the "Afrezza.What nature intended" is fantastic.Use of that in an ad in one of the "Natural"
magazines might pull this cart out of the ditch. I think the "natural" committed people
are very very dedicated and would much prefer Afrezza to any other diabetic medicine if
they only knew about it. Al or the new CEO should get an interview with those magazines.
Al is no dummy and he may have expected the cancellation when he mad the deal. He did get a lot of
cash and some help from SNY. The product is launched and the 65% fee to SNY is gone and there is cash
in the bank and a line of credit and further dramatic cuts in expenses expected. Matt should
run a projection and figure out the sales level necessary for break even cash flow. I have heard there are pure
pharmaceutical sales companies that could be hired to call on doctors, etc for a very low cost compared to 65%
paid to SNY. A few well managed salesmen could do a lot more than all of SNY because SNY did almost nothing.
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