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Post by compound26 on Jan 7, 2016 13:19:14 GMT -5
"It is probably not appropriate to use the JV expense of $175M- this predominantly factors in Sanofi's bureaucracy and cost structure; which targets support to many different drugs, devices, etc. The true estimate is going to be somewhere in between, and my WAG is about 1/2 to 2/3 of this. Certainly not the full amount. " estan2001, Deciding which SNY expense to allocate to the Afrezza joint venture was always going to be a little tricky, but if MNKD allowed Sanofi to charge the venture 1/3 to 1/2 of costs that are attributable to its own products, I would be extremely upset. Sanofi probably did not charge expenses for marketing other drugs. However, giving how ineffective their efforts have been, their claimed expenses probably are very stated compared to the efforts their employees made.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 7, 2016 13:41:27 GMT -5
"It is probably not appropriate to use the JV expense of $175M- this predominantly factors in Sanofi's bureaucracy and cost structure; which targets support to many different drugs, devices, etc. The true estimate is going to be somewhere in between, and my WAG is about 1/2 to 2/3 of this. Certainly not the full amount. " estan2001, Deciding which SNY expense to allocate to the Afrezza joint venture was always going to be a little tricky, but if MNKD allowed Sanofi to charge the venture 1/3 to 1/2 of costs that are attributable to its own products, I would be extremely upset. Greg, What they officially charge, and what they actually spend their time on (especially in light of the SNY attitude & plan regarding Afrezza) could certainly be 2 different things- I do not recall SNY specifically staffing only for Afrezza, any large Co. would transfer resources and you can bet they still have other responsibilities to continue to manage. But say I accept that ONLY dedicated resources were assigned- it is a behemoth of an organization with i am sure big overhead rates. Any targeted dedicated team from a small to mid sized organization will be markedly more efficient and require less resources to do the same thing. That is predominantly my point (and the dilution due to other responsibilities only adds to it).
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Post by greg on Jan 7, 2016 13:53:37 GMT -5
"It is probably not appropriate to use the JV expense of $175M- this predominantly factors in Sanofi's bureaucracy and cost structure; which targets support to many different drugs, devices, etc. The true estimate is going to be somewhere in between, and my WAG is about 1/2 to 2/3 of this. Certainly not the full amount. " estan2001, Deciding which SNY expense to allocate to the Afrezza joint venture was always going to be a little tricky, but if MNKD allowed Sanofi to charge the venture 1/3 to 1/2 of costs that are attributable to its own products, I would be extremely upset. Greg, What they officially charge, and what they actually spend their time on (especially in light of the SNY attitude & plan regarding Afrezza) could certainly be 2 different things- I do not recall SNY specifically staffing only for Afrezza, any large Co. would transfer resources and you can bet they still have other responsibilities to continue to manage. But say I accept that ONLY dedicated resources were assigned- it is a behemoth of an organization with i am sure big overhead rates. Any targeted dedicated team from a small to mid sized organization will be markedly more efficient and require less resources to do the same thing. That is predominantly my point (and the dilution due to other responsibilities only adds to it). esstan2001, I agree with much of what you said. The approximate $175 million loss for 2015 is just a starting point, with so many refinements possible, all representing guesses, though. Bottom line, I think (emphasizing "think") sales of $200 million could get us close to breakeven, for the product itself. Obviously, there are other operating costs to be taken into consideration, but a breakeven Afrezza would buy the company substantial breathing space, including, most likely, a higher stock price, which would also give management more options. All in all, I'm far more optimistic today than I was two days ago. In fact, I'm actually excited about the possibilities, almost like going back to the days pre-Sanofi.
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