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Post by compound26 on Jan 6, 2016 19:03:05 GMT -5
Now that Sanofi has terminated the license agreement, Mannkind is probably looking for another BP partner, but even if it has to do it by itself, I still think it is doable. Al Mann did it with insulin pump (MiniMed) before and Duane DeSisto did it with OmniPod. Pursuant to this podcast, at one point, Insulet had only 5 sales representatives. And when Duane DeSisto stepped down, it is stated in this article that: "OmniPod has given the freedom and simplicity of tubeless pumping to more than 60,000 people living with diabetes..... Insulet reiterated its revenue guidance, saying it still expects to pull down $73 million to $77 million for the 3rd quarter and $290 million to $300 million for the year. ...." If Mannkind can reach 60,000 patients, we will have a weekly refills of 5,000. Current average sales per script is around $500. Let's cut it by 50% to account for any anticipated price cut of Afrezza. That will lead to an average sales per script of $250. That will translates to a weekly sales of $1.25 million and an annual sales of $65 million, equal to $16.25 million a quarter. If Insulet, starting with 5 sales rep can sell OmniPod to 60,000 patients, Mannkind should be able to sell Afrezza to 60,000 people. |
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 6, 2016 19:12:52 GMT -5
I agree with the logic up to a point. The issue is that many initially doable processes don't scale well particulaly when selling in multiple countries. I suppose it could be a jump start and cross the scale issue down the road.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 19:18:53 GMT -5
Tier 2 with low pricing for out of pocket paying patients ( domestic and international ) - international being like Matt from Australia and Brendan from UK -individual buyers will alone cross 60k by a mile
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 6, 2016 19:43:32 GMT -5
Tier 2 with low pricing for out of pocket paying patients ( domestic and international ) - international being like Matt from Australia and Brendan from UK -individual buyers will alone cross 60k by a mile Big question is whether SNY has done ANYTHING with regard to international approvals... likely not. Are MNKD's remaining precious resources wisely spent on chasing after approval overseas, or better spent trying to turn on revenue in U.S.? If SNY had at least been in discussions with other regulators there might be some info to make a wise decision... such as likelihood of better label with existing data. But alas, I fear that SNY did nothing and we are flying blind... or rather MNKD is flying blind... obviously we investors have been blind, deaf and dumb for a long time. |
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Post by compound26 on Jan 6, 2016 19:55:58 GMT -5
Tier 2 with low pricing for out of pocket paying patients ( domestic and international ) - international being like Matt from Australia and Brendan from UK -individual buyers will alone cross 60k by a mile I agree. If the price is low enough, say $100 per month out of pocket. I think we could certainly cross a threshold. A lot of people (patients and doctors) would be glad not to deal with insurance, prior authorization and step therapy requirement. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 19:56:57 GMT -5
Tier 2 with low pricing for out of pocket paying patients ( domestic and international ) - international being like Matt from Australia and Brendan from UK -individual buyers will alone cross 60k by a mile Big question is whether SNY has done ANYTHING with regard to international approvals... likely not. Are MNKD's remaining precious resources wisely spent on chasing after approval overseas, or better spent trying to turn on revenue in U.S.? If SNY had at least been in discussions with other regulators there might be some info to make a wise decision... such as likelihood of better label with existing data. But alas, I fear that SNY did nothing and we are flying blind... or rather MNKD is flying blind... obviously we investors have been blind, deaf and dumb for a long time. when i say international - not through regulatory bodies. Individual patients can order through Internationalpharmacy.com if priced is right - no overhead costs. Social media can bring down regimes.. it can get 10,000 patients easy. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 6, 2016 20:13:41 GMT -5
Big question is whether SNY has done ANYTHING with regard to international approvals... likely not. Are MNKD's remaining precious resources wisely spent on chasing after approval overseas, or better spent trying to turn on revenue in U.S.? If SNY had at least been in discussions with other regulators there might be some info to make a wise decision... such as likelihood of better label with existing data. But alas, I fear that SNY did nothing and we are flying blind... or rather MNKD is flying blind... obviously we investors have been blind, deaf and dumb for a long time. when i say international - not through regulatory bodies. Individual patients can order through Internationalpharmacy.com if priced is right - no overhead costs. Social media can bring down regimes.. it can get 10,000 patients easy. Social media certainly hasn't done a heck of a lot for us so far. I suspect people with diabetes tend to discuss all the same trivial stuff that everyone else does on social media rather than the drugs they are using. Insulin, especially one that has been on the market for a year, isn't going to "go viral" on social media. MNKD can't afford to price this like an over the counter. The number of patients that could afford even half the current price is pretty limited. Unless MNKD can quickly negotiate dropping of restrictions with payers we will need a marketing partner to come to our rescue... I don't rule out the later, but it sure seems high risk as to whether anyone else will feel Afrezza worth it... we now have not only the distant ghost of Exubera but the much more lively spectre of Afrezza's apparent market place death with a partner that was once described as ideal. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 20:19:43 GMT -5
when i say international - not through regulatory bodies. Individual patients can order through Internationalpharmacy.com if priced is right - no overhead costs. Social media can bring down regimes.. it can get 10,000 patients easy. Social media certainly hasn't done a heck of a lot for us so far. I suspect people with diabetes tend to discuss all the same trivial stuff that everyone else does on social media rather than the drugs they are using. Insulin, especially one that has been on the market for a year, isn't going to "go viral" on social media. MNKD can't afford to price this like an over the counter. The number of patients that could afford even half the current price is pretty limited. Unless MNKD can quickly negotiate dropping of restrictions with payers we will need a marketing partner to come to our rescue... I don't rule out the later, but it sure seems high risk as to whether anyone else will feel Afrezza worth it... we now have not only the distant ghost of Exubera but the much more lively spectre of Afrezza's apparent market place death with a partner that was once described as ideal. Most of the new afrezza users are through social media and taking that plunge. I am 100% positive that most of them are introduced through Sam/Eric and then the patients doc get on board. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 6, 2016 20:26:08 GMT -5
Social media certainly hasn't done a heck of a lot for us so far. I suspect people with diabetes tend to discuss all the same trivial stuff that everyone else does on social media rather than the drugs they are using. Insulin, especially one that has been on the market for a year, isn't going to "go viral" on social media. MNKD can't afford to price this like an over the counter. The number of patients that could afford even half the current price is pretty limited. Unless MNKD can quickly negotiate dropping of restrictions with payers we will need a marketing partner to come to our rescue... I don't rule out the later, but it sure seems high risk as to whether anyone else will feel Afrezza worth it... we now have not only the distant ghost of Exubera but the much more lively spectre of Afrezza's apparent market place death with a partner that was once described as ideal. and taking that plunge. I am 100% positive that most of them are introduced through Sam/Eric and then the patients doc get on board. Wow... 100%... what evidence is there of this? Have these two guys even made such a claim themselves? |
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Post by ricguy on Jan 6, 2016 20:33:26 GMT -5
My concern/fear/question with this would be why didn't MNKD go it alone in the first place and not even bother with a slimy French partner? They wanted/needed a partner for a reason and were in much better shape financial back then.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2016 20:40:40 GMT -5
Most of the new afrezza users are through social media and taking that plunge. I am 100% positive that most of them are introduced through Sam/Eric and then the patients doc get on board. Wow... 100%... what evidence is there of this? Have these two guys even made such a claim themselves? reread.. I am 100% positive that the flat lines on the CGM on twitter made most of the diabetics try out Afrezza and stick to afrezza.. some of them out of the way to change doctors to get prescriptions and some doctors finally got it... there is no way by reading the label and bound by label , I would try/prescribe afrezza and the social media would bias me towards afrezza |
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Post by curiousdoc on Jan 6, 2016 20:42:35 GMT -5
Any budding comedians that can create a humorous viral ad alla Dollar Shave Club's "Our blades are F%%king Great"? Ha
Kidding, obviously... although a free 10+ million views would do wonders for word of mouth, which, sadly, is our best weapon at this point.
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Post by sluggobear on Jan 6, 2016 20:49:34 GMT -5
If Al Mann was to spend ANY more money on Afrezza - he should buy his own sales distribution team of about 25 diabetes reps and attempt to get US sales up for 2 years. Just spit-balling...
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Post by ricguy on Jan 6, 2016 21:00:23 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 6, 2016 21:13:51 GMT -5
Wow... 100%... what evidence is there of this? Have these two guys even made such a claim themselves? reread.. I am 100% positive that the flat lines on the CGM on twitter made most of the diabetics try out Afrezza and stick to afrezza.. some of them out of the way to change doctors to get prescriptions and some doctors finally got it... there is no way by reading the label and bound by label , I would try/prescribe afrezza and the social media would bias me towards afrezza Your experience with doctors is 180 degrees from my own. Most doctors I've interacted with give very little weight to the "I found this on the internet" patient input... very little weight to active hostility. I'm sure there are some exceptions but it is quite a leap to think that most of the obviously very few prescribing doctors were convinced by patients rather than being convinced by education sessions or simply by professional networking with the doctors that we know supported Afrezza even before it hit the market such as Edelman, Bode, etc. |
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