|
|
Post by spiro on Jan 10, 2016 13:14:32 GMT -5
daduke38,
THE 50% number was just a ballpark. MNKD is sitting on a monster supply of inventory, considering the slow sales during Afrezza's 1st year. So why not slash the price to clear out all of it's aging inventory. Also, this would not only increase insurance coverage, but get thousands of more people to try Afrezza. Many of them will get hooked on Afrezza. After the inventory is near depletion, MNKD revs up the production lines again and can gradually start increasing the price . MNKD can easily afford a small sales force of 12 -15 reps for 6 months or so. They need to prove that if Afrezza is marketed properly in a small region, that it can produce solid sales. Spiro's hope is that this can be done with an elite sales force of enthusiastic and motivated sales reps, within 6 month's. With this evidence, MNKD should be able to secure a solid marketing partner, maybe even sooner than 6 month's as the evidence builds.
Spiro here, stubbornness may be a curse, but Spiro now controls 5,700 more shares than he did last weekend.
|
|
|
|
Post by daduke38 on Jan 10, 2016 15:29:00 GMT -5
daduke38, THE 50% number was just a ballpark. MNKD is sitting on a monster supply of inventory, considering the slow sales during Afrezza's 1st year. So why not slash the price to clear out all of it's aging inventory. Also, this would not only increase insurance coverage, but get thousands of more people to try Afrezza. Many of them will get hooked on Afrezza. After the inventory is near depletion, MNKD revs up the production lines again and can gradually start increasing the price . MNKD can easily afford a small sales force of 12 -15 reps for 6 months or so. They need to prove that if Afrezza is marketed properly in a small region, that it can produce solid sales. Spiro's hope is that this can be done with an elite sales force of enthusiastic and motivated sales reps, within 6 month's. With this evidence, MNKD should be able to secure a solid marketing partner, maybe even sooner than 6 month's as the evidence builds. Spiro here, stubbornness may be a curse, but Spiro now controls 5,700 more shares than he did last weekend. Yeah, I realized 50% was a ballpark! I guess my point was maybe it didn't need to be quite that much. Whatever the cut, we know it needs to be made, and at a substantial amount. Thanks for the further explanation. As we are in 100% agreement on pricing; your idea of regional roll outs makes more sense to me on a 2nd reading. I actually added 3K myself last week.  |
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Jan 10, 2016 15:37:23 GMT -5
Nothing to lose now by slashing price. The more users = better user results! Word will get out.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Jan 10, 2016 15:51:30 GMT -5
I would think that investment analysts will pay attention to scripts growth before earnings when they update their ratings on MNKD stock.
|
|
|
|
Post by matt on Jan 10, 2016 18:39:21 GMT -5
1. Based mnkd current debt structure, how much control(##%?) Will Al have if Al decides to file chapter11? The answer to that is very little. Secured lenders can go after the collateral outside of the bankruptcy process, so Deerfield can sell their security in an UCC-3 sale. I just looked at the covenants and it DOES INCLUDE most of the intellectual property and all of the property that is important. Either somebody ponies up all the money Deerfield is owed, or Deerfield can sell the assets out from beneath the bankruptcy estate. That leaves the company with basically nothing of substantial value with which to restructure, which is exactly how Deerfield wants it.
If the mythical "somebody" puts up the debtor-in-possession financing necessary to take out Deerfield, then that party become a priority creditor and will get paid out upon exit from bankruptcy. If that "somebody" is Al Mann he basically gets the company handed back to him, but the shareholders (and Al's initial investment of $1 billion or so) are gone.
Bankruptcy court is not somewhere common shareholders want to be.
|
|
|
|
Post by figglebird on Jan 10, 2016 18:51:46 GMT -5
Actually, it is unclear which senior debt holders could get what but the only two in play would be Deerfield and Sanofi. Not going to speculate why mnkd would even consider as rationality has been rarely part of the evolving story, but
MANNKIND has under 13m this year of servicable debt and one principal payment on a tranche b for five million. That is just south of 19m for 2016. Then, moving forward and not accounting for terms or valuation of the milestone agreement made with deerfield(unclear and not worrisome at this juncture) it's not like the debt would grow to an unsustainable level - there would need to be some cash flow from funding or sales but not as much as folks seem to think.
|
|
|
|
Post by u1682002 on Jan 10, 2016 18:57:52 GMT -5
Hi Matt, thank you for the analysis. A follow up question: is it legally feasible for Al to pay Deerfield to get all assets back through BK court? Would this process lead to some kind of lawsuits?
|
|
|
|
Post by figglebird on Jan 10, 2016 19:00:46 GMT -5
Again, aside from milestone agreements, Al is on pace to pay back deerfield outside of bnkrptcy. He also from what I understand converted 300m in debt to common shares... that's why the mann loan facility stands at only 50m w 30 left.
|
|
