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Post by ricguy on Jan 11, 2016 15:35:05 GMT -5
For what it's worth I enjoyed (as best I can) being in this sh*t show with you guys/gals. I have a feeling we will know our future here sooner than we think even though the wait for any kind of insight seems agonizing. Some very good ideas and some good people on this board that I agree and disagree with and it's nice having civil conversations on here. I got baited into a politics discussion at my Aunts house last night and wow did that get ugly, talk about some adults acting like 2 year olds instead of having meaningful discussions. As much bad news as we have been having this is def an outlet for me to deal with MNKD predicament. (reading and writing).
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 11, 2016 15:51:26 GMT -5
Yes, the price now is $0.67 ps. If we get up to $5, a lot of longs are even. It's the creeping up of the price to a level that is better for longs based on nothing except hope. This will be a distressed merchandise sale. Nothing in MNKD is producing a profit. For profits to flow, the new owner must invest heavily. The backdrop shows two other companies (SNY and PFE) who poured 8 figures each and failed to profit from inhaled insulin. Not that it really matters but PFE spent more than $3,000,000,000 and about a decade on its inhaled insulin, and that's $3 billion with a B. What has SNY put into its inhaled insulin? About 15 months and $400 million, that's it. Putting them into the same boat is rather silly. As to "distressed merchandise sale," things aren't that clean cut. MannKind may be strapped and not have many options. But this may not be all that relevant if several, or even just two, potential acquirers decide the company's various asset are attractive. You may have concluded that Afrezza is spoiled merchandise, many would disagree. I chose the simplicity of "8 figures" for sales and marketing alone to get my message across. I think you get the idea. The circumstances surrounding Afrezza is distressed. MNKD must sell or else the BK court will sell the assets. Maybe we will hear something about TS this Wednesday. But otherwise the potential for TS is limited to Afrezza. The entire deal has warts.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 11, 2016 17:33:13 GMT -5
Just when you think it can't get any bleaker or weirder - DeSisto can't accept due to "A non-compete" ? One would think that would have been discussed prior to the announcement of his coming onboard. Geezus already. We'll have to see what Matt does on WEDS. It has to be one of two things: 1. Duane just bailed after termination. I just can't imagine an executive such as himself would not do his due diligence and ask not only MNKD but the industry about the MNKD and SNY relationship. How could he not ask the question, "What if SNY terminates agreement?" Knowing MNKD they probably said we have not seen any indication of this and if this happens you can cancel your appointment. Or 2. A new partner is in fact violation of his non-compete clause. I'm tired of trying to speculate and stay positive so I will say it's most likely #1. I have no faith in Matt running the show as CEO. I was extremely excited about Duane with his prior experience. This has been a costly lesson but I'll hang onto shares to see if there is a miracle of some sorts. I'm a big fan of Al Mann and I'm sad to see his and our company has come down to this. Well said.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 11, 2016 17:35:19 GMT -5
For what it's worth I enjoyed (as best I can) being in this sh*t show with you guys/gals. I have a feeling we will know our future here sooner than we think even though the wait for any kind of insight seems agonizing. Some very good ideas and some good people on this board that I agree and disagree with and it's nice having civil conversations on here. I got baited into a politics discussion at my Aunts house last night and wow did that get ugly, talk about some adults acting like 2 year olds instead of having meaningful discussions. As much bad news as we have been having this is def an outlet for me to deal with MNKD predicament. (reading and writing). I hope Trump buys MNKD - Great election cycle decision. LOL
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Post by ricguy on Jan 11, 2016 17:39:50 GMT -5
For what it's worth I enjoyed (as best I can) being in this sh*t show with you guys/gals. I have a feeling we will know our future here sooner than we think even though the wait for any kind of insight seems agonizing. Some very good ideas and some good people on this board that I agree and disagree with and it's nice having civil conversations on here. I got baited into a politics discussion at my Aunts house last night and wow did that get ugly, talk about some adults acting like 2 year olds instead of having meaningful discussions. As much bad news as we have been having this is def an outlet for me to deal with MNKD predicament. (reading and writing). I hope Trump buys MNKD - Great election cycle decision. LOL lol nice 1!
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Post by goyocafe on Jan 11, 2016 18:39:42 GMT -5
Yes, the price now is $0.67 ps. If we get up to $5, a lot of longs are even. It's the creeping up of the price to a level that is better for longs based on nothing except hope. This will be a distressed merchandise sale. Nothing in MNKD is producing a profit. For profits to flow, the new owner must invest heavily. The backdrop shows two other companies (SNY and PFE) who poured 8 figures each and failed to profit from inhaled insulin. Not that it really matters but PFE spent more than $3,000,000,000 and about a decade on its inhaled insulin, and that's $3 billion with a B. What has SNY put into its inhaled insulin? About 15 months and $400 million, that's it. Putting them into the same boat is rather silly. As to "distressed merchandise sale," things aren't that clean cut. MannKind may be strapped and not have many options. But this may not be all that relevant if several, or even just two, potential acquirers decide the company's various asset are attractive. You may have concluded that Afrezza is spoiled merchandise, many would disagree. If you go back to the Phizzler days, SNY sold their half of Exubera to them for $2 billion before the drug went to market. So you could go as far as to say the $200 MM that SNY spent on MNKD was house money.
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Post by afrizzle on Jan 11, 2016 22:24:28 GMT -5
If you guys think this will resolve at 2 or 5 a share, are you buying? That's a 3 to 7 bagger from today
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Post by james on Jan 11, 2016 22:39:03 GMT -5
Matt as CEO might put a different spin on expectations for the forward operating plan, but I'm not looking for a conclusion in the next few months. I expect an attempt to string things out; particularly through a near term TS deal and possibly a new marketing partner (very different terms) in the March - April timeframe. There should be time for this wild ride to continue. Who knows, we may even see Duane back in the picture this September... The importance of Juergen Martins and the director of finance (forgot her name) have certainly expanded.
A buyout might be better for the long term future of Afrezza. That's likely to be a factor in Al's calculus.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 12, 2016 8:14:22 GMT -5
Regarding Sanofi's notice of termination of the License and Collaboration Agreement, I agree with several reporters' assessment that MannKind Chief Financial Officer Matt Pfeffer was upbeat during a late afternoon conference call with investors, saying that executives realized not long after Afrezza’s release a different course of action may be needed “for the market success we believed, and still believe, is possible.” At that brief announcement, Matt mention a new pricing and reimbursement strategy. I see that as a positive remark.
Commercialization of Afrezza does not become non-exclusive until April 3, but nothing in the contract prevents MannKind from announce a new marketing partner for Afrezza before the effective date of termination. It also sounds like Matt will be providing some news on partnerships for Technosphere-delivered medications being developed within the MannKind pipeline.
I prefer to withhold judgment on the future of MannKind Corporation until I hear what Matt has to say.
Good fortune all.
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Post by frumenti on Jan 12, 2016 16:21:35 GMT -5
Yesterday I talked to someone who is an MD and researcher. His take is that SNY deliberately sabotaged Afrezza because it is possible it could be the only medication necessary for many diabetics which would destroy SNY's insulin business. I am Type 2 and I take only Afrezza because my fasting blood sugar is usually around 120 which is 5.8 A1c. That is in the normal range and as long as I use Afrezza for mealtime I can get into the normal range for an A1c under 6.0. I was 6.3 on my last test but enjoyed some ice cream, key lime pie, etc without adjusting my mealtime dosing because my doctor is very happy with 6.3. I talked to someone who I believe has connections with SNY and bragged about needing only Afrezza and he was upset at the thought that I did not need Toujeo or Lantus, both SNY products.
I read a speech by Al Mann who described the structure of the sale of a company he had started. He was approached by someone who wanted to buy his company but Mr Mann told him he would not sell then because the company would be worth x times more when the company had achieved certain goals. The buyer then proposed a deal where the price paid was X but additional payments would be made in the future if the company reached certain goals. I would not be surprised at a deal like that being made in the case of MNKD. Such a deal would obviously would require the buyer providing financing for further development of MNKD's business. Security for the financing could be the patents and technology.
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