|
Post by mnholdem on Jan 12, 2016 18:36:02 GMT -5
Signing up w/ regional players was Mnkd game plan before the Sanofi deal. This is more diversifying lest one partner terminates. Mnkd may fall back to the original plan. Griffins also said the same thing. Sanofi publically promised Second Afrezza Launch. They can be pinned down for that. Regional players? I keep hearing about them ... but any names out there? Does it mean regional marketing/distributing/payer negotiating companies? Takeda Pharmaceuticals Limited (Japan) comes to mind. They have one diabetes drug, an oral medication called Actos45, if I'm not mistaken. They have no basal/prandial insulin so there's little conflict, if any.
|
|
|
Post by bioexec25 on Jan 12, 2016 18:42:14 GMT -5
Mnholdem, just saw that about Takeda and even Samsung. I remember how hard it was to break into Japan but I also recall that when it was a fit that they can really move quick. No question in my mind the Asian countries will embrace inhaled insulin and strategic application to avoid complications or even needles at all. If we can find companies like these with drivers and without conflicts, then fantastic. Due to timing and ramp, Mnkd should playball with the first regional onboard. Play hard to get later if ever, but for now, let's make a deal.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2016 19:12:00 GMT -5
I'm trying to put out numbers without blowing smoke. Is $200M for a novel drug delivery platform a fairy tale? How did MNKD have a value in it's early stages of development? And yet there were investors... We do not know how far along the product development really is. We only know that there is at least 2 or 3 years of work on potential formulations and that trials have not begun. The suggestion has been that 2 TS formulations are near to entering a clinical stage. Apparently, we may hear from the CMO this Wednesday with more detail about this very topic. My contention on Afrezza is that many folks are writing off the value of Afrezza without committing numbers to paper. With due respect, they may lack the tools to perform that kind of analysis properly. Sales are growing and as such, we can make extrapolations, estimate likely expenses and discount future value. Certainly my valuations may be off as well, but I would like to see additional informed attempts at this. MNKD is like a baseball phenom who came on the scene having a 100 mph fastball. The kid was sure to succeed and was worth a lot. Today, the same kid is 30 yo and everybody can hit his fastball that has degraded to 88 mph. His baseball worth is far lower and consequently investors have shied away. As I have written before, the key to the NPV analysis is how fast can Afrezza sales rise due to a price decrease. This is guesswork which means the NPV model for Afrezza is guesswork. Even using the early adopter model, neither Exubera nor Afrezza gained early traction. Perhaps inhaled insulin is not a "gotta have" product. As for TS: What company will want to burn a billion dollars in drug development after seeing the Afrezza and Exubera debacle? There is value to Afrezza and TS. It will not be $5 ps. You are comparing to a pitcher who has been in the majors for how long? Afrezza hasnt evem been on the market 1 year. And again. Pulling numbers from out of thin air. How did you arrive at your figure? Magic?
|
|
|
Post by afrezzamiracle on Jan 12, 2016 19:49:52 GMT -5
AFREZZA was only half assed launched in a single country in the entire world without so much support of even a single TV ad. With the pricing and insurance coverage fixed (shouldn't take very long) and a decent launch we will indeed prove to be a blockbuster.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 12, 2016 20:03:06 GMT -5
AFREZZA was only half assed launched in a single country in the entire world without so much support of even a single TV ad. With the pricing and insurance coverage fixed (shouldn't take very long) and a decent launch we will indeed prove to be a blockbuster. Year by year PBMs are removing drugs from their formularies. I doubt "fixing" insurance coverage will be as quick and easy as you seem to imagine. Even if Afrezza were priced at or below SQ RAAs, insurers would likely be hesitant given that existing RAAs would more or less be considered equivalent and can be played off against each other, whereas Afrezza though potentially priced reasonably now could always go up in price if the ease of use and other benefits of Afrezza prove to be real... and SQ RAAs may have downward price pressure from biosimilars whereas all the patents on Afrezza and the delivery device would make it proprietary long into the future. We can't know how much of a serious effort SNY made to sway insurers (as that is truly something that was done behind the scenes), but it is common knowledge that it is becoming harder and harder to secure placement on formularies... and keep placement. Until you get the diabetes medical establishment behind Afrezza, I think it will be an uphill battle to get Afrezza broadly accepted by payers.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 12, 2016 20:05:32 GMT -5
MNKD is like a baseball phenom who came on the scene having a 100 mph fastball. The kid was sure to succeed and was worth a lot. Today, the same kid is 30 yo and everybody can hit his fastball that has degraded to 88 mph. His baseball worth is far lower and consequently investors have shied away. As I have written before, the key to the NPV analysis is how fast can Afrezza sales rise due to a price decrease. This is guesswork which means the NPV model for Afrezza is guesswork. Even using the early adopter model, neither Exubera nor Afrezza gained early traction. Perhaps inhaled insulin is not a "gotta have" product. As for TS: What company will want to burn a billion dollars in drug development after seeing the Afrezza and Exubera debacle? There is value to Afrezza and TS. It will not be $5 ps. You are comparing to a pitcher who has been in the majors for how long? Afrezza hasnt evem been on the market 1 year. And again. Pulling numbers from out of thin air. How did you arrive at your figure? Magic? My baseball analogy was to highlight why Afrezza is worth less now than at the beginning. If MNKD spent over a billion to commercialize Afrezza, why would this not be true for another drug using TS?
|
|
|
Post by bradleysbest on Jan 12, 2016 22:35:09 GMT -5
Is it possible that Takeda market Afrezza in Asia, Novo in USA etc.... Different partners for different countries?
|
|
|
Post by mindovermatter on Jan 12, 2016 22:36:05 GMT -5
Is it possible that Takeda market Afrezza in Asia, Novo in USA etc.... Different partners for different countries? possible but not probable.
|
|