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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 13, 2016 11:19:06 GMT -5
So I'm wondering IF (IF IF IF) the pps hits any of our break-even points in the coming months, will anyone be selling as soon as you break even or will you risk it and hold longer? This is something I have been wrestling with, I guess it depends a lot on the surrounding circumstances. My avg is 5.39, if the PPS gets close to get break-even, I'd just sell. (That is if there aren't any news) If there is no news regarding MNKD, that would coincide with news of snow in hell. $5.39 would require MNKD news on what I'd characterize as the awesome end of the realm of possibilities.
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Post by themarlin on Jan 13, 2016 11:23:47 GMT -5
My bet is that shorts are covering. They don't want to be like the gofundme guy and get trapped if we somehow get a favorable buyout. Like others have stated, there's not a whole lot of milk to squeeze out of this cow. Trapped how? The average short is sitting on TONS of profit. Even in an unlikely scenario of a buyout with significant premium they'd still be sitting on huge winnings. Perhaps locking in profits, but let's not act like we've got shorts scrambling in fear that they might lose a small fraction of their huge profits. There will also be greedy ones planning to hold through bankruptcy... and even if bankruptcy doesn't happen there will be plenty of the greedy ones that get out with handsome profits even if we double or quadruple in share price from here. Dreamboat, newbie question: When 1 share is "covered", or bought back, is that 1 share now in their account? Or was it held all along by someone else? I'm wondering if 100m+ shares that get covered can just get sold again they day they're bought/covered.
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 13, 2016 11:28:42 GMT -5
I'm with Factspls and lakemann. We've been to this party over and over again.
Shorts don't expect anything different -a rinse and repeat. And why? Because Matt presented the other times.
So they let it rise slightly from retail swing/momos so they can simply milk the cow again with the cover of the hit pieces.
But - Is it possible Matt does a 180 on them now? I do think it is possible. But I don't think the shorts do.
If he does, and the price spikes up more, it will no doubt fry some short swingers. But the institutional shorts already in the money big time won't care. And I don't think this is covering activity at all. I think they are salivating at their firm conviction of $0 and BK, with little risk to losing - even if it doesn't.
Me - though I'd love to see them fry, I'm more interested in myself not frying long term. At this point I'm blackened Cajun-style.
Sorry to be a dish rag.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Jan 13, 2016 11:28:54 GMT -5
So I'm wondering IF (IF IF IF) the pps hits any of our break-even points in the coming months, will anyone be selling as soon as you break even or will you risk it and hold longer? This is something I have been wrestling with, I guess it depends a lot on the surrounding circumstances. I have been adding some shares at various points all the way down. Bought some shares at 0.68 last week and some 1.00 Jan 2018 calls yesterday. I tried to restrain myself, but just couldn't help it. They were so darn cheap. I am already down over a $100k like others, but the way I see it, the odds are much better now than they were two weeks ago. I sure would like to see a profit from this investment in the end. As for selling some or all of my position, it depends on what Matt has to say today and how things develop over the next couple of months. Especially if the price of Afrezza is cut in half and insurance coverage improves, I will look to see how this affects scripts over the next two months. With 6 months of cash in hand I believe there is time to turn things around. MNKD management has enough time and several options to raise cash including, as some have mentioned, a parting payment from Sanofi. So I am not about to give up just yet. I may be wrong, but that is the way I see it.
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Post by taylor810dn on Jan 13, 2016 11:32:57 GMT -5
When a share is sold short, it is borrowed from someone who already owns it, and folks who have premium accounts get paid interest for their borrowed shares, I think I saw where Fidelity is now paying 18% on borrowed shares, it has been much higher in the past months. But when the short is covered (bought to cover), it is just returned to the original owner.
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Post by inittowinit on Jan 13, 2016 11:34:54 GMT -5
My guess is that the market likes the idea of an unbridled Mannkind from Sanofi. They know the risk is very high but that MannKind can license Afrezza to whoever and where ever they want to license. Think about how big this is now that we know what Afrezza is about in terms of how it works. We were saddled with a single entity who had the responsibility to market it worldwide and they sat on it as it was going to hurt their injectionable Insulin business. I guess nobody really saw that coming. But fortunately Al Mann and the MannKind team figured it out. Now MannKind has the opportunity to market anywhere they can get a solid commitment. We need sales and distribution in countries that have easy access for FDA approved products. MannKind had their hands tied behind their back with Sanofi. They couldn't do anything as they gave up that right. How ever the deal was broken by Sanofi or Mannkind it was a genius move by Mannkind Management to accept and move on down the road. This will be Sanofi's ultimate loss and a big win eventually for Mannkind and Shareholders. Too early to call realistically. Love the new look K!
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 13, 2016 11:45:22 GMT -5
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 13, 2016 12:10:17 GMT -5
So I'm wondering IF (IF IF IF) the pps hits any of our break-even points in the coming months, will anyone be selling as soon as you break even or will you risk it and hold longer? This is something I have been wrestling with, I guess it depends a lot on the surrounding circumstances. I'd look at the actual situation with Mannkind at that point. You can't make an informed decision before we know why it's at that future price. For me, it would also depend on whether another stock is a better bet from that point forward. My original plan when I bought my first shares was to sell half at $25 and hold half as Mannkind became one of the big pharma companies (10 - 15 years out). I've only traded in and out of Mannkind with 5% of my holdings. The 95% are my original shares just under $6.00.
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Post by kc on Jan 13, 2016 12:14:19 GMT -5
One license deal that could happen very quickly is to Teva in Israel. Israel accepts the FDA approval.
Teva can have it packaged and on the market in Israel in less than 60 days from the time an agreement is accepted. Hit the small Israel market to gain knowledge how to get into the hands of patients quickly. The Nice thing about the Israel Market is that they are a socialized medicine country. So the pricing issue could be quickly overcome with MannKind and Teva. Al Mann has a very good reputation in Israel for the funding he has given the Technion (MIT of Israel for Bio Medical research). He has several start up companies already funded at the Technion that will eventually be on the market.
Go do your research on Israel the start up nation. Read about the medical technology and medicine that has come outof the that country for the last 25 years. Its truly amazing.
MannKind needs to move forward and its nice to be unplugged from Sanofi who only wanted to do business to help their existing insulin products. Sanofi is a bloated and bureaucratic company that didn't really understand what Afrezza could mean to a diabetic. A company Like Teva does. They are Young and Nimble andwould know how to bring it to market first under licence in Israel and potentially in other countries. Teva wants to be in the Branded drug space. They do not have any competing drug like Afrezza at this time and they have a very strong sales staff worldwide. Let's hope that Teva and MannKind can explore at least a licensing deal for Israel to get the ball rolling.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 13, 2016 12:18:09 GMT -5
When a share is sold short, it is borrowed from someone who already owns it, and folks who have premium accounts get paid interest for their borrowed shares, I think I saw where Fidelity is now paying 18% on borrowed shares, it has been much higher in the past months. But when the short is covered (bought to cover), it is just returned to the original owner. Of course someone that borrowed the shares could hold onto them after covering in order to short later. At that point that have a net neutral position in the stock since they owe someone the share... they wouldn't gain anything from an increase or decrease in price (though costing them the interest for the borrowed shares while they hold).
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Post by taylor810dn on Jan 13, 2016 12:40:20 GMT -5
Someone needs to read a little about stock trading basics, a short sell trade is selling a share of stock that you do not own, hence the need to buy a share to "cover" that short position and that is why it is called a short trade, it was never owned so when you sell it, you are short the shares you sold. Key here is "never owned", so you can't hang on to something you never owned. Only option to close a short position is to buy the shares that you sold short, which just gives them back to the broker who borrowed them, if you wanted to short again, then you would have to sell more shares short.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 13, 2016 13:06:45 GMT -5
Someone needs to read a little about stock trading basics, a short sell trade is selling a share of stock that you do not own, hence the need to buy a share to "cover" that short position and that is why it is called a short trade, it was never owned so when you sell it, you are short the shares you sold. Key here is "never owned", so you can't hang on to something you never owned. Only option to close a short position is to buy the shares that you sold short, which just gives them back to the broker who borrowed them, if you wanted to short again, then you would have to sell more shares short. For retail investors the borrowing/returning occurs automatically with the shorting/covering, but I believe larger traders handle these transactions separately, such as building up inventory of borrowed shares before shorting in order to unleash them onto the market at one time for a bear raid. Likewise they potentially could still hold the borrowed shares after repurchasing them as a "cover" of their short.
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Post by lakemann on Jan 13, 2016 13:31:09 GMT -5
Short= A has bought and paid for share, he lends to B who then sells to C=treated as a real share to C... C can now lend his share to D who now sells it to E. Treated as a real share to E.... The process can go on forever or until shares are called back,,, that's when we get the squeeze.. All shares unfold all the way back to A
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 13, 2016 13:54:33 GMT -5
Short= A has bought and paid for share, he lends to B who then sells to C=treated as a real share to C... C can now lend his share to D who now sells it to E. Treated as a real share to E.... The process can go on forever or until shares are called back,,, that's when we get the squeeze.. All shares unfold all the way back to A In theory one can consider that it unfolds. In practice, I think this all happens in the Clearing Firms and could happen in one fell swoop if for instance all shares were covered in one day (near impossibility as large as SI is in MNKD). In that case everything just gets reconciled at the end of the day without figuring out if E's shares go to D or to B.
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Post by lakemann on Jan 13, 2016 13:59:26 GMT -5
Your absolutely right,but it's easier to understand using my example,,
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