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Post by liane on Jan 14, 2016 9:05:31 GMT -5
Forgiving the loan balance doesn't help. The loan isn't due until 2024. I would rather SNY lend MNKD another $100 million and add it to the balance if Matt can't get anything else from SNY. If MNKD can't pay back the loan in 8 years then Afrezza will have failed to become the blockbuster we assumed it would be and we made a terrible mistake investing in this company. Thinking the same thing
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Post by kball on Jan 14, 2016 9:16:15 GMT -5
James What did you think of the Royalty Pharma comment regarding financing going forward? I'm sure a Royalty venture would require a steep % of the profits, but so did SNY. I'm not sure I really grasped this discussion. My notes on what was said for that were incomplete as I was trying to catch up to the concept. I have no specific experience to judge this at present. I think we would need to look at some representative transactions to see how favorable that kind of deal might be. My gut is that this would be something similar to what I don't want to see via Deerfield. Maybe to step back, I think MNKD clearly does not have the resources to float both TS development and Afrezza market development, yet both must be done. It could be questioned whether they have the resources for either. My takeaway from this presentation is that the near term plan is to sell what rights they can on the TS side to provide development funding there while focusing what remains of their resources on market development for Afrezza. The question of selling US royalty rights to Afrezza could be seen in a better light in the second half of this year with an inflection of sales growth, or it could also become a strict necessity if plans fail to gain traction. The only thing I am really confident in is that operations should continue past 2016 and that Afrezza will stay on the market for the next couple of years minimum and patient access should increase. So a win for diabetics if nothing else. Perhaps that is what matters most.Pretty concise and reflective of my thinking as well...though i'm still not sure how far past 2016, and should plans not take hold as soon as hoped for, i still see Bankruptcy possibility looming 2nd half this year if we are being realistic of all the things that need to go right with fewer people and a lot less money to get us there
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Post by suebeeee1 on Jan 14, 2016 12:26:45 GMT -5
Forgiving the loan balance doesn't help. The loan isn't due until 2024. I would rather SNY lend MNKD another $100 million and add it to the balance if Matt can't get anything else from SNY. If MNKD can't pay back the loan in 8 years then Afrezza will have failed to become the blockbuster we assumed it would be and we made a terrible mistake investing in this company. Forget a loan!. Sanofi needs to pay up big to keep another lawsuit out of the courts. We should be able to walk away with at least $100,000,000. If not, we sue them and watch how quickly they settle. The evidence that they sandbagged as they have done to other small biotech seems to be their pattern. Time to pay up big!
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 14, 2016 13:12:47 GMT -5
At the very least, the ex-U.S. launch milestones would have been paid by now if Sanofi hadn't made an early decision to bail. Because of them, everything was basically put on hold for a year. $100M to $200M, IMO.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 14, 2016 14:16:38 GMT -5
Is there any precedence for MNKD shareholders to file class action against SNY?
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Post by bighaus89 on Jan 14, 2016 14:35:33 GMT -5
Is there any precedence for MNKD shareholders to file class action against SNY? I think a "severance package" could be given to MNKD to mitigate this.
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 14, 2016 14:40:36 GMT -5
Is there any precedence for MNKD shareholders to file class action against SNY? I think a "severance package" could be given to MNKD to mitigate this. It can't be mitigated if it doesn't exist,,, where do I sign?
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Post by prosper on Jan 14, 2016 15:03:51 GMT -5
I think you are answering a different question. The opening comment was regarding Afrezza. I think your reply was regarding the bulk Pfizer insulin in freezer storage. That brings up an interesting question. If MNKD sells overseas, could we use the bulk in storage for international use as long as it tests OK? That could be either a highly profitable way to sell overseas, or allow a dramatically reduced sales price and still maintain good margins here.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 14, 2016 16:58:13 GMT -5
Is there any precedence for MNKD shareholders to file class action against SNY? I think if you could you would have seen an ambulance chasing law firm touting for business by now. Enough of them seem to be eager to sue the management for us.
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Post by matt on Jan 14, 2016 17:31:12 GMT -5
Is there any precedence for MNKD shareholders to file class action against SNY? Shareholders cannot file suits directly. They must demand that the board take action and, if the board fails to do so, the shareholder may file a derivative suit. However, there are substantial hurdles to get a derivative suit past the Rule 23.1 hearing (where the board will argue that they used their best business judgment). The chances of winning are slim enough that the typical contingency firms won't take it so shareholders have to be willing to advance the case past the Rule 23.1 challenge. We are talking hundreds of thousands of dollars with the likelihood of losing.
Pretty much any talk of suing Sanofi is silly. They did enough to meet the minimum contract obligations they signed up for. Certainly they could have done more, but the contract did not require them to do more. From MNKD's perspective, you do not want to be a small biotech trying to restart with new drugs having just sued your previous partner because nobody is going to partner with you in the future. Just let Sanofi walk out the door and hope that it hits them in the butt when it slams shut. Anything else burns money and management attention, both of which are in short supply. Sanofi has a market cap of $105 billion; they are not the ones that are going to blink first and will be perfectly happy to wait this one out.
As I have said in other posts, Deerfield is not your friend. If you think Sanofi gave the shareholders a raw deal, just wait and see what Deerfield can, and has, done. Do your homework on what happened to previous clients of theirs. I would rather see the company take money from my personal loan shark "Guido the Detroit Torpedo" rather than Deerfield. In the worst case Guido will just break your legs, Deerfield will take everything.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 14, 2016 18:05:39 GMT -5
At the very least, the ex-U.S. launch milestones would have been paid by now if Sanofi hadn't made an early decision to bail. Because of them, everything was basically put on hold for a year. $100M to $200M, IMO. Sue and mn, not so sure about the lawsuit angle. Sure, there's a claim to be made, but I will guarantee you there would be a dozen people from SNY that would sit down with their own lawyers and they would be just as certain as you guys are that their (SNY) side has now issues. There may be some smoking guns, but it is very costly to find them. Now if we had an inside guy that would blow the whistle, that's something else, it could short-circuit the whole thing. Otherwise, it's too much time, energy and money spent for something that is very speculative at the end of the day. I'll go so far as to say that some of the comments on this board over time regarding the merits of a law suit show a misunderstanding of how these darn things normally turn out. Again, with a smoking gun or two, fine, absent that, work a deal and move the hell on.
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Post by harryx1 on Jan 14, 2016 18:31:51 GMT -5
Obviously we don't really know if these people are real but if they are, then it does add to the sandbagging theory. Hopefully they are and do contact Matt with their experience. postimg.org/image/kepzmnqmj/
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Post by slapshot on Jan 14, 2016 18:41:15 GMT -5
Obviously we don't really know if these people are real but if they are, then it does add to the sandbagging theory. Hopefully they are and do contact Matt with their experience. postimg.org/image/kepzmnqmj/Yeah, its hard to know who / what you can trust, but he is using the name of a real endo... Dr. Harold Miller is an endocrinologist in Hammond, Louisiana and is affiliated with multiple hospitals in the area, including East Jefferson General Hospital and Lakeview Regional Medical Center. health.usnews.com/doctors/harold-miller-260416
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 14, 2016 18:59:32 GMT -5
Obviously we don't really know if these people are real but if they are, then it does add to the sandbagging theory. Hopefully they are and do contact Matt with their experience. postimg.org/image/kepzmnqmj/The rep never returned their call? There are a lot reasons for why that might be. The obvious one was that he was not an Afrezza salesman, equally likely is that he was a lousy salesman. Either way you cannot make a law suit out of it. In my experience incompetence is a far more common occurrence than malice.
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 14, 2016 18:59:50 GMT -5
Obviously we don't really know if these people are real but if they are, then it does add to the sandbagging theory. Hopefully they are and do contact Matt with their experience. postimg.org/image/kepzmnqmj/Keep it up Harry! I gotta be honest, until I read that link, I never considered emailing Matt and telling him anything, and for obvious reasons. I'm just a guy on a msg board. But I do have a personal story with Afrezza, some of which I have shared here but not all. Like the part about me personally knowing an SNY rep who handles Tojeau (I don't want to know how to spell it, fckrs) and his reactions to our conversations. The reactions from my wife's old and new endo's, the pharmacist, her ins company, NO ONE knew a damn thing! btw, I'm talking about this just past October/November. I am now thinking about emailing a CEO to tell him my story incase it could help at all, if nothing else add to the number of similar stories. SO, either I really have lost my effing mind, OR thank you Harry!
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