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Post by parrerob on Jan 21, 2016 10:48:23 GMT -5
For the sake of the prior baseball analogies that were posted here; no it's not the homerun many here are yearning for but I'll take this sweet little single to start the rally.... P.S. Stevil...depends on what the ~10% is based off of ...right? :-) as an optimist I'm thinking it must be 5-10 percent of more than you may be thinking. ..just my guess. ;-) Let's throw numbers out so people can see what we're talking about. I don't know how generous you want to be regarding future sales, but at around 10-15% sales royalties, (single digit to low double-digit) even at $1billion/year, we only get $100-150 million/year. That's roughly our current burn rate. I don't know about you, but I'm not nearly that generous in my estimates. It sounds like we have 3 drugs in the partnership, so maybe eventually they can all reach that number combined, but just to give you an idea, these were the top 200 drugs in 2010. If you want to assume these drugs will be in the top 200, they will net us at least $150mil/year x 3= 450 mil. So I think an average of 333 mil (x 3 to reach 1 bil) is quite generous as that would place them at an average of top 100 drugs. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? TBD. So we're not going to be able to develop the company further with R&D, not be able to hire new employees, not be able to pay a new CEO, although if Matt pulls this off we probably don't need one. But hopefully you get my point. This is merely a tourniquet right now to keep us from hemorrhaging out. This will not save the company by itself. We need more, and likely much better if we want this company to survive. From the comments, it sounds like Matt is still counting on Afrezza to become what we all hoped it would and that's what we're banking on. Keep the ship afloat long enough until Afrezza catches traction. I don't see how this deal does that for us in the short term, but I guess we need to take what we can get right now just to try. Top 200 drugs of 2010 www.drugs.com/top200.htmlStevil, 100 million / year with no expense ? It will be a dream, believe me. no expense means also reduced cash burn ! (Obviously no way for us to make calculation as cash burn will increase on Afrezza side too and bla bla...)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2016 10:48:40 GMT -5
Website was created 11 days ago.
Domain Name: RECEPTORLIFE.COM Registrar: ENOM, INC. Sponsoring Registrar IANA ID: 48 Whois Server: whois.enom.com Referral URL: www.enom.com Updated Date: 10-jan-2016 Creation Date: 10-jan-2016 Expiration Date: 10-jan-2017
ENOM is located in Kirkland, WA, about 2 miles and essentially down the street from Microsoft HQ in Redmond. May not be a coincidence. its just a domain name registrar and Web hosting company .. might have gone with go daddy to add some life / color
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 21, 2016 10:48:47 GMT -5
Website was created 11 days ago.
Domain Name: RECEPTORLIFE.COM Registrar: ENOM, INC. Sponsoring Registrar IANA ID: 48 Whois Server: whois.enom.com Referral URL: www.enom.com Updated Date: 10-jan-2016 Creation Date: 10-jan-2016 Expiration Date: 10-jan-2017
ENOM is located in Kirkland, WA, about 2 miles and essentially down the street from Microsoft HQ in Redmond. May not be a coincidence. May well be that the website company used by Receptor to set up their website domain is indeed located near Redmond because it was started by some people that live there because of Microsoft. Why on earth is that interesting to us?
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Post by biffn on Jan 21, 2016 10:52:21 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 21, 2016 10:54:45 GMT -5
good points. now that this is out of the way, the next fire to put out is how Mannkind can raise much needed cash unless Receptor Life is part of a plan to take MNKD private. Why not read the MannKind 2016 Blueprint Summary (posted above)? It's covered there: "Generate immediate cash and increase volume by rapid expansion into selected international jurisdictions."
Can I hear an "Israel - amen, brother!" Saudi Arabia? Others include any country that basically rubber stamps FDA-approved drugs.
Seriously, are shareholders, who have been complaining for years about lack of transparency, ignoring Matt Pfeffer (out of habit) now that MannKind's new CEO is providing guidance?
Thrice bitten, ... oh heck, what means 4 times shy. The rub comes with the word "immediate". Since it was not concurrent with the presentation it merely means "immediate" at some future indeterminate point in time.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 21, 2016 10:56:31 GMT -5
ENOM is located in Kirkland, WA, about 2 miles and essentially down the street from Microsoft HQ in Redmond. May not be a coincidence. May well be that the website company used by Receptor to set up their website domain is indeed located near Redmond because it was started by some people that live there because of Microsoft. Why on earth is that interesting to us? And eNom is supposed to be something like the second largest domain name registrar. It has to be located somewhere. I suspect relatively few of the millions of people and companies that use it have any connection to Microsoft. I mean, I think it's like saying if Mannkind uses plastics from some Chinese company then Al must be in cahoots with Xi Jinping.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 21, 2016 10:57:34 GMT -5
Why do we care which domain name registry service they've used? Are they running some special where it's $4.99 per year... first year free, and it comes with a Visa card loaded with $100M?
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Post by seanismorris on Jan 21, 2016 10:58:11 GMT -5
Waiting for color...not enough here it make MNKD a buy.
Could be Al trying to kickstart interest in TS...
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Post by biffn on Jan 21, 2016 11:00:18 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 21, 2016 11:03:24 GMT -5
ENOM is 4000 ft from the new GOOGLE Kirkland campus. I nearly bought a condo near one of Google's numerous offices. Are they known for giving away money to all their neighbors? If so... wow, another bad mistake.
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ssaq
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Post by ssaq on Jan 21, 2016 11:04:20 GMT -5
What's interpretation on this bit? "MannKind will also transfer manufacturing technology to the licensee" Is this a transfer of TS IP? That doesn't sit well for nothing upfront + possible $100m down the road + possible ~10% sales down the road Can it be viewed as a spinoff of TS? Its exactly what it is - Manufacturing technology so Mannkind doesnt have to run production facility. They didnt say Technosphere IP True, hope that is correct. Thinking back though, I recall this was something they specifically did not want to give up to SNY for strategic reasons. Wonder why it was necessary now, if not a valuable gain for Receptor (& loss for mnkd). Why not just keep everything as is, and pass along expenses...
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Post by liane on Jan 21, 2016 11:07:30 GMT -5
I'm sure SNY would have commanded a higher % price concession.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 21, 2016 11:09:19 GMT -5
Its exactly what it is - Manufacturing technology so Mannkind doesnt have to run production facility. They didnt say Technosphere IP True, hope that is correct. Thinking back though, I recall this was something they specifically did not want to give up to SNY for strategic reasons. Wonder why it was necessary now, if not a valuable gain for Receptor (& loss for mnkd). Why not just keep everything as is, and pass along expenses... Risk mitigation for Receptor. MNKD has creditors that could still march in if MNKD becomes insolvent. If I were Receptor I'd demand this based on where MNKD is at. The royalties paid to MNKD may also only run until patents expire on TS.
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Post by peppy on Jan 21, 2016 11:13:02 GMT -5
My thought is Matt can schedule the conference call with investors he spoke about at the JPM healthcare conference any time now.
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Post by compound26 on Jan 21, 2016 11:13:49 GMT -5
I think what Matt said in the JPM presentation sheds some light on the terms of this license agreement (and probably some other future licensing agreements). seekingalpha.com/article/3809206-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-matt-pfeffer-presents-at-34th-annual-jpmorgan-healthcare-conference-transcript?part=single"So clearly the Technosphere pipeline is something that's important to us. It’s going to be important from a licensing standpoint. This is probably not huge upfront dollars, but I think and in fact I think, if that were very close to when I or I think my predecessor promised me we have in this quarter. I actually thought we have one today. That didn’t happen, but I think it will happen soon to have the first one to announce. But there will be more of these and these are things that could actually yield some short term cash and not huge upfront dollars, but some of the milestones are quite near term and could make a big difference for us to show that the technology is sustainable. There is interest in it and there is lot of places we can use it. That’s something relatively new for us because what we've been focusing on heretofore has been our own products based on this technology because that’s really what are most profitable in the long run, but we can also be opportunistic with these licensing opportunities and I think you’ll see more emphasis on that in the future. That said, as I said before I was going to take that opportunity of having right here to talk about just briefly, just I think I'll give you three or four minutes Ray to briefly talk about some things that are going on in the pipeline because we can be a lot more specific on what we’re doing and I think there are some really interesting things in it." P.S., when I heard the above on the JPM call, I was wondering perhaps there would be little or no upfront fee for the first T.S. partnership. That turns out to be the case. We will need to see the details of the agreement to see if " some of the milestones are quite near term". Also, per the statement that " there will be more of these", we will wait to see if there are other licensing agreements in the work.
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