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Post by silentknight on Jan 22, 2016 19:35:43 GMT -5
I don't think you can see the deal as anything but a positive. Yes, we need cash, but Matt said the milestones would be easy to meet and I'll take him at his word on that. As others have stated, someone with at least 100 million dollars sees some value in TS or they wouldn't have signed any deal at all. I think companies see it, as Afrezza works better than anything else on the market when used properly. If that can be replicated with other products, then MNKD is on the right track.
I've intentionally tried to watch the stock less over the past few days, for my own peace of mind. After hearing Matt's presentation at the JPM Conference and seeing him put together a deal in almost NO time as CEO, he has my confidence. Granted he wasn't my first choice, but I think he's going to do a good job. We've already seen DRASTIC improvements in the way the company is being run in only three weeks with better transparency, better results, and better leadership. The stock is trading in the toilet and likely will be for some time until we see improvements in Afrezza sales which hopefully start to come under MNKD 2.0.
For anyone expecting a watershed moment where the stock jumps into the $2 or $3 range, I'd say that's a pipe dream at this point barring a miracle that none of us will see coming. I'm content to let Matt do his job and I'll make a determination on how things are going when he's had a quarter or two to show signs of increasing sales with Afrezza. Heck, they don't even have it back from SNY yet.
Patience folks. Give them time, but I certainly like what I've seen thus far.
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Post by nylefty on Jan 22, 2016 19:51:03 GMT -5
Seems like just yesterday when gs and others were saying that technosphere had absolutely no value. In fact, the share price also suggests that it has no value. So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively?? Some other entity, controlled by folks who obviously weren't born yesterday (even if the entity was), thinks there's value and is willing to shell out $100 million, plus royalties. By all indications, those same folks have a portfolio of products plus the wherewithal to shell out those $100 million. As for lack of details, who can blame MNKD and the partner, given the never ending crap that the haters continue to spew. Also, contrary to what some are saying, it's a nonexclusive deal, meaning that the company is hardly giving away the store. As to those haters, it's obvious the vast majority, if not all, are associated with institutions. How else to comprehend their persistence when MNKD shares are trading where they're trading. If the price were higher, then it would be understandable for little retail investors to continue hammering away. As to what kind of institutions these minions work for and their ultimate motivations, one can only speculate. But it's hard to believe that they're working day and night just to make a few more pennies. And while I'm at it, I must say I hate seeing all those toujeo ads. I've never disliked a company, but I must admit I'm getting there with sny. Greg said it well and I thank him for his forward looking post. As for all the negative comments, I have to wonder why this board has been so infested by bashers and why they spend so much time spreading FUD about this stock.
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 22, 2016 20:44:48 GMT -5
"i don't think it is seen negatively more so that it is seen as being a non event being that nothing is known about the partnering company and that Mannkind got no up front money. I think if Mannkind received a few hundred million dollars up front, Wall Street would use that as a way to evaluate the importance of the deal. No up front money means the deal wasn't that important to the street. Wall St is all about "show us the money." Mannkind has yet to show anyone anything." (edited to add quotation marks) Mindovermatter, Just out of curiosity, how do you see it? Getting away from Wall Street, which, collectively, hasn't liked anything MNKD has done for years, how do you see the deal? Was it a net negative, net positive, or a nonevent? Is the company, not its stock, better off with the deal or without the deal? We know very little about the partner, but how many people out there evaluate something for months, assuming this is the deal Hakan talked about several months ago, go to the trouble of setting up a new entity, and sign an agreement that obligates them for something, exactly what still to be determined? When Desisto's hiring was announced last month, one of those haters rushed out to publish a horrible piece trashing Desisto, muting any positive impact. I've seen a fair amount of negative commentary about this deal, even though very little is known about it. Why? Does it hurt the company in any way? I see it as a positive step that hopefully will further validate TS as a viable, cost effective and revenue generating platform. When that will happen is anyone's guess. I am rooting for Receptor to find great success with it. I just hope to see it sooner rather than later.
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Post by chuck on Jan 22, 2016 21:21:11 GMT -5
Here's the part I don't understand... 1. What long, who is still long, is going to sell anywhere near this level? Almost none. 2. Short interest isn't moving in a significant way, percentage-wise. To me, that doesn't make economic sense. You have to close your position to book the profit. There have been months of low prices where a few million shares a day could have been covered, unless the shorts are really just selling among themselves to drive the SP down so Mannkind can't finance with an offering (like TASE). Are the shorts betting they can mechanically hold the SP down AND that Mannkind doesn't have other options besides dilution to raise money? That doesn't sound realistic to me. It's as if the shorts are willing to throw away money to cause Mannkind difficulty, rather than simply playing the market. There are so many more attractive stocks to short than Mannkind at 80 cents. There is a REAL possibility that someone like Bill Gates or Paul Allen could instantaneously inject 5 years of operating capital with no one knowing about it beforehand except Al. The danger seems extreme for shorts, but they aren't playing it that way. 3. How are the shorts who are in now not afraid of some other greedy hedge fund coming in and causing a short-term spike for a quick profit? It's a big, greedy world out there. For a few million, a rival hedge could spark a runup and take the profits right away, most likely scaring some shorts into covering in case it's the big run we all expect to eventually happen. 1. I wouldn't disagree that longs who are still in this stock won't sell now given that there is not much left of their original investment.
2. The short interest isn't moving because they believe (rightly or wrongly) that mnkd shares are worthless. At 80 cents a share, that's a $100 million of profits still to be captured. Shorts that sold last year and the year before don't at all impact the stock price today. They have sold and are holding. Rather, today's price is impacted by longs giving up and selling combined with new potential shareholders looking at a market cap of $350m, an enterprise value of $550m, and comparing that to a product that is generating huge losses, a difficult turnaround strategy to execute, and insignificant TS deals and saying "no way I'm buying this" at this huge valuation. Shorts aren't causing any difficulty or are scared. They are sitting comfortably on huge profits right now. There is little danger as most of these hedge funds will be sufficiently diversified that a run-up wouldn't work. They will hold tight and may in fact short sell into any artificial buying. Once the artificial buying runs out, the stock price will collapse and the rival hedge fund will be left with a bunch of shares they overpaid for. That would be a dumb move.
Mnkd is a simple story now. Mnkd is betting the entire company on their re-launch of Afrezza. TS is simply a non-factor. The $ involved in the near-term is too small to move the needle. Long-term there may be more $ to be had if they are able to make something of this proof of concept deal but until they progress the products further along no one will assign any material value to them.
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Post by gamblerjag on Jan 22, 2016 21:37:27 GMT -5
I guess I look at this with a more simplistic view.. (since that's in my DNA). MNKD was trading about 5-6 bucks before the SNY partnership (give or take) it jumped to 11 on the news. Granted we probably have about 20% more shares then we did back then (give or take).. so now we don't have a partner for Afrezza.. ..fine.. we didn't when we were at 5-6 either. so if we were at 5 -6 before partnership news and have perhaps 20 % more O/S through dilution then we should be minimum now about 4 bucks...... add to the fact we have 12 months of social media saying how wonderful the drug is and a Techno Partner.. and more and more physicians hearing about the drug. We had neither of these three things before. I believe we get back to the 4-5 buck range by late Spring.
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 22, 2016 23:14:43 GMT -5
Rather, today's price is impacted by longs giving up and selling combined with new potential shareholders looking at a market cap of $350m, an enterprise value of $550m, and comparing that to a product that is generating huge losses, a difficult turnaround strategy to execute, and insignificant TS deals and saying "no way I'm buying this" at this huge valuation.
I think that's where the longs who are holding are in a different universe of perspective. My thinking is: 1. Look at the medical results. They are literally astonishing. They are enabling diabetics to alter their lives in a positive way, in some cases to the point where diabetes is no longer limiting their lifestyle (training for marathons, eating recovery carbs, flat-lining the CGMs, lowering their HbA1C numbers to the point where there is a significant lessening of the risks of the disease). On top of that is the no more needles, the ability to descreetly take a dose right at the table as you begin your meal. A valuation of $350 million in the light of the sheer size of the diabetic market and the MONOPOLY on those features described above. To me, the stock situation is literally unbeleivable considering Mannkind has a proven drug with near-miraculous performance and there are dozens if not hundreds of biotech stocks with none of these strengths priced many times higher than Mannkind. 2. I have never seen such malice directed at a company from all quarters. Mannkind is literally trying to save lives and they are being attacked non-stop. If Mannkind wasn't a threat to take significant market share, why the sustained and co-ordinated attacks?
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Jan 23, 2016 2:34:37 GMT -5
The shorts proofed several times last year that they can handle a potential short squeeze with a lot of money and well designed algos that just break the waves. This and balls of steel.
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Post by peppy on Jan 23, 2016 7:58:06 GMT -5
Rather, today's price is impacted by longs giving up and selling combined with new potential shareholders looking at a market cap of $350m, an enterprise value of $550m, and comparing that to a product that is generating huge losses, a difficult turnaround strategy to execute, and insignificant TS deals and saying "no way I'm buying this" at this huge valuation.
I think that's where the longs who are holding are in a different universe of perspective. My thinking is: 1. Look at the medical results. They are literally astonishing. They are enabling diabetics to alter their lives in a positive way, in some cases to the point where diabetes is no longer limiting their lifestyle (training for marathons, eating recovery carbs, flat-lining the CGMs, lowering their HbA1C numbers to the point where there is a significant lessening of the risks of the disease). On top of that is the no more needles, the ability to descreetly take a dose right at the table as you begin your meal. A valuation of $350 million in the light of the sheer size of the diabetic market and the MONOPOLY on those features described above. To me, the stock situation is literally unbeleivable considering Mannkind has a proven drug with near-miraculous performance and there are dozens if not hundreds of biotech stocks with none of these strengths priced many times higher than Mannkind. 2. I have never seen such malice directed at a company from all quarters. Mannkind is literally trying to save lives and they are being attacked non-stop. If Mannkind wasn't a threat to take significant market share, why the sustained and co-ordinated attacks? Inappropriately, the situation you describe makes me wonder what would happen to a true advance in the war on cancer.
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Post by lakon on Jan 23, 2016 8:11:55 GMT -5
Whenever you see the phrase "War on X", I always define X in simplest terms: X is the newest source that profits can be extracted easily without anyone noticing there is no intention of winning, just prolonging the profit center. Perhaps I am cynical, but I dare you to research all its uses to date. When has a large profitable enterprise not sprung up around such a "War"? I keep a pin that says, "I like Ike," to remind me. I think I get your point peppy, and it is unfortunate.
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Post by jpg on Jan 23, 2016 11:13:55 GMT -5
Seems like just yesterday when gs and others were saying that technosphere had absolutely no value. In fact, the share price also suggests that it has no value. So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively?? Some other entity, controlled by folks who obviously weren't born yesterday (even if the entity was), thinks there's value and is willing to shell out $100 million, plus royalties. By all indications, those same folks have a portfolio of products plus the wherewithal to shell out those $100 million. As for lack of details, who can blame MNKD and the partner, given the never ending crap that the haters continue to spew. Also, contrary to what some are saying, it's a nonexclusive deal, meaning that the company is hardly giving away the store. As to those haters, it's obvious the vast majority, if not all, are associated with institutions. How else to comprehend their persistence when MNKD shares are trading where they're trading. If the price were higher, then it would be understandable for little retail investors to continue hammering away. As to what kind of institutions these minions work for and their ultimate motivations, one can only speculate. But it's hard to believe that they're working day and night just to make a few more pennies. And while I'm at it, I must say I hate seeing all those toujeo ads. I've never disliked a company, but I must admit I'm getting there with sny. Greg said it well and I thank him for his forward looking post. As for all the negative comments, I have to wonder why this board has been so infested by bashers and why they spend so much time spreading FUD about this stock. FUD or simply reality? Do notice many of us long term bulls have given up and sold. Capitulation before the short squeeze or seeing reality for what it is? So far I'm happy to have sold when I did and can't find a reason to buy back in.
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Post by esstan2001 on Jan 23, 2016 12:45:14 GMT -5
.... The other risk in staying short is that at any moment, a celebrity, a politician, someone like Gates could easily sing the praises of Afrezza to a huge audience. That danger is there every minute of every day. There is, in my opinion, ZERO probabability that all the reports of Afrezza's effectiveness on social media are fake. Given that, how the #$% aren't shorts terrified that any one of the following things could happen at any moment: 1. What I described already in this thread. 2. A large sale to a country that accepts FDA approval (many) or a country that can do whatever the heck they want to (middle east, etc.). 3. A hedge fund intiating a squeeze mechanically to coincide with news or rumors, possibly of their own creation. The risk / reward seems so far on the risk side at 80 cents. risk side at 80 cents... for the shorts. Al seems to have many many wealthy friends- this includes Hollywood the entertainment industry. Nearly every Gala photo throughout the years, he is usually at the same table with Quincy Jones ($billions), he is friends with Danny DeVito, etc. I would think as part of a Hail Mary someone could convince Hanks & Perkins (a user) to do an advert stating how Afrezza is revolutionary advance in the treatment of D, and at the end state that they volunteered and did not get paid for this message. OK, time to stop dreaming :-)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2016 16:14:34 GMT -5
Greg said it well and I thank him for his forward looking post. As for all the negative comments, I have to wonder why this board has been so infested by bashers and why they spend so much time spreading FUD about this stock. FUD or simply reality? Do notice many of us long term bulls have given up and sold. Capitulation before the short squeeze or seeing reality for what it is? So far I'm happy to have sold when I did and can't find a reason to buy back in. There's no point in responding to him. Sometimes I. Wonder if people like him are short and pumping the stock. How anyone is that confident is beyond me.
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Post by stevil on Jan 23, 2016 18:24:30 GMT -5
FUD or simply reality? Do notice many of us long term bulls have given up and sold. Capitulation before the short squeeze or seeing reality for what it is? So far I'm happy to have sold when I did and can't find a reason to buy back in. There's no point in responding to him. Sometimes I. Wonder if people like him are short and pumping the stock. How anyone is that confident is beyond me. You would be surprised how people can brainwash themselves into believing a certain way. I'm convinced that some on this board genuinely think that MNKD cannot fail. I think they are too in love with the science that they can't see the forest through the trees. It's why when I got here I took such a firm stance and tried to even things out. Afrezza has become a cult following it seems. People have almost adopted it as a part of their identity. They want so badly for it to succeed that they don't even want to consider that it could fail. It's like a parent who loves their kid but is in denial. Their kid is failing all their classes, gets caught with drugs, gets in trouble with the cops, but the parents still back them up and thinks they're a good kid and not a failure. Pretending that reality isn't real is easier than facing it. I honestly think that's part of what's going on here. But your theory makes sense also...
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Post by benyiju on Jan 23, 2016 19:37:57 GMT -5
"Too in love with the science"?!?!?! In most cases the love affair was with a greedy fantasy of easy riches. I'm not saying Afrezza and MannKind might not some day be a success, I hope a big success, but Afrezza isn't the 'most important discovery for diabetics since insulin' (it's simply a more convenient form of insulin delivery) and at this point if you're at all being serious, the odds are not in our favor that MannKind will succeed or even that Afrezza will be on the market 5 years from now. But, as I said, I'm willing to let my stake ride on the hope of at least breaking even. After all, there's not much more to lose at this point...
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Post by greg on Jan 24, 2016 9:52:14 GMT -5
Seems like just yesterday when gs and others were saying that technosphere had absolutely no value. In fact, the share price also suggests that it has no value. So, how can any deal for Ti be seen negatively?? Some other entity, controlled by folks who obviously weren't born yesterday (even if the entity was), thinks there's value and is willing to shell out $100 million, plus royalties. By all indications, those same folks have a portfolio of products plus the wherewithal to shell out those $100 million. As for lack of details, who can blame MNKD and the partner, given the never ending crap that the haters continue to spew. Also, contrary to what some are saying, it's a nonexclusive deal, meaning that the company is hardly giving away the store. As to those haters, it's obvious the vast majority, if not all, are associated with institutions. How else to comprehend their persistence when MNKD shares are trading where they're trading. If the price were higher, then it would be understandable for little retail investors to continue hammering away. As to what kind of institutions these minions work for and their ultimate motivations, one can only speculate. But it's hard to believe that they're working day and night just to make a few more pennies. And while I'm at it, I must say I hate seeing all those toujeo ads. I've never disliked a company, but I must admit I'm getting there with sny. Greg said it well and I thank him for his forward looking post. As for all the negative comments, I have to wonder why this board has been so infested by bashers and why they spend so much time spreading FUD about this stock. Constructive criticism is useful, and it's always welcome. Like you, what really bothers me is the incessant fud emanating from some people on this board. This comment probably won't survive our minders but it's the fakes and phonies that really bother me, the primary example being STEVIL. STEVIL claims to be a first-year med student who has to work his ass off, but somehow he's found the time to post 100s of messages on this board. Who knows where else he's posted his stuff. As to his stuff, almost without exception, his comments indicate that he's a shareholder but, quite frankly, it doesn't pass the smell test. There's always a pretense at objectivity, but, again, almost without exception, there's a negative tilt, always designed to inject fear and uncertainty. His claim is that we need to be objective in our assessment of MNKD. This claim obviously makes sense but if you look at the bigger picture, there's something very off about him. If you look closely at his comments, he sees doom and gloom for MNKD. Its balance sheet is horrible, the outlook for Afrezza is terrible, Ti is worthless, and the deal for Ti is meaningless, etc. (Speaking as an analyst of almost three decades, I can say his critiques are incredibly simplistic and easily debunked; not worth the effort, though, because it would take forever.) Given this, why does he remain a stockholder. If I felt the same way, I would be long gone. There are 7,000 other stocks in the U.S. that I could buy, why stay with a stock that's doom and gloom. And if one were to argue that he didn't want to lock in a loss, then why the constant negativity. Who in his right mind not only hangs onto the stock of a company that he thinks in dire trouble but spends all day long bashing that stock? I apologize for singling one person out but I do take it personally when that person works so hard against my economic interest. If you want to trash a stock, at least be honest about your position. There are enough haters out there without our having to constantly hear trash from someone who claims to be one of us.
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