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Post by factspls88 on Jan 26, 2016 15:09:42 GMT -5
How could this possibly be good news for longs at the current pps levels...? I'm sure breakeven looks good to many of us, especially to those like me who hold a large number of shares. That said, if there were really to be a buyout, I think many of us could do better than breakeven. I'm not counting on anything soon, but I will hold until something does. |
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Post by lorcan458 on Jan 26, 2016 15:11:18 GMT -5
How could this possibly be good news for longs at the current pps levels...? The current share price means nothing. Whoever is buying is buying the IP and the medical results, both of which are FAR more meaningful than a mechanically-manipulated share price. |
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Post by BlueCat on Jan 26, 2016 15:11:41 GMT -5
Selling the company at these depressed levels could be quite frightening. I wonder what the minimum we could get per share would be? What do you all think the maximum would be too? My guess is that the bottom line is that Old Mann would want to do a bit better than his investment in ($1B+ and over 10 years). So it would be that, and what it would take to buy out the rest of the stock. Because that would be insultingly low - perhaps that would be price tag to sell Afrezza alone, with e.g. 1 time dividend to current holders who get to continue to hold MNKD stock while it delivers licensing agreements like RLS and stays a penny stock. Or Old Mann takes it out private. Not likely good for us in either case - my guess is that latter is the absolute worst. I don't see BK happening - worst case would happen before that. Best case? Depends on what else the Wizard has going on behind that curtain. Any additional deals, offers, etc. |
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Post by boytroy88 on Jan 26, 2016 15:14:12 GMT -5
Even with these "rumours" the pps doesn't go above $0.99. Why is that?
I told myself that I should buy more shares early this morning before the market opened but forgot. Saw that it was up to $0.85 by the time I remembered and thought it probably won't go any higher today...but was I wrong...kicking myself for not doing anything....
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Post by mnkdorbust on Jan 26, 2016 15:14:21 GMT -5
Doesn't posting complete articles from newspapers, magazines, and news agencies such as Reuters violate copyright laws? Links are OK, as are brief quotes, but not complete articles. Stock manipulation is illegal also and we've all seen how that is enforced.  |
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Post by kball on Jan 26, 2016 15:15:14 GMT -5
Doesn't posting complete articles from newspapers, magazines, and news agencies such as Reuters violate copyright laws? Links are OK, as are brief quotes, but not complete articles. I think all the law firms are busy suing mannkind. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 26, 2016 15:17:05 GMT -5
now that Al Mann has said he will entertain offers, we get to see who is interested in Technosphere.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 26, 2016 15:17:27 GMT -5
How could this possibly be good news for longs at the current pps levels...? What a company could/would reasonably pay for MNKD is not going to be what it would have been a year ago for sure. But, the share price of a company does factor in risk. A reasonable argument could be made that there is significant bankruptcy risk factored into the trading price. An acquirer would be buying on value of company without that risk factor built in. The trading price causes difficulties for MNKD in negotiations, but if a company acquires MNKD they will need to argue to their shareholders that Afrezza has value and market potential, and if they do that they certainly could justify more than $1 even if Afrezza were to only get a small slice of prandial market. How much more than $1 could be negotiated successfully by MNKD, and justified to shareholders by the acquirer (assuming it were public) is another question... I doubt it would be $7.5 as someone above is wishing for. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Jan 26, 2016 15:18:19 GMT -5
Doesn't posting complete articles from newspapers, magazines, and news agencies such as Reuters violate copyright laws? Links are OK, as are brief quotes, but not complete articles. Posting whole articles without the expressed consent of the publisher is ILLEGAL. |
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Post by silentknight on Jan 26, 2016 15:20:17 GMT -5
First off, this article is garbage. It doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Matt has made it very clear since the termination of the partnership that MNKD was exploring options on the way forward. Of course that included a sale. If they didn't consider it, they wouldn't be considering all options now would they? As such, I question the timing of the article at all. It reeks of manipulation by a Wall Street entity that is looking to pump MNKD now that they covered their previous short position where they depressed the stock to a point where it made it cheap to now go long.
Second, unless they can get a hefty premium for the company, far above where the stock price is now, I'm not in favor of a sale. I actually think they're on the right track assuming they can get Afrezza headed in the right direction after it returns to MNKD in April. With the recent deal, and hopefully more to follow, development milestones and royalties on sales can be a very lucrative business plan and lead to significant profits if the drugs are success. My break even is now around $4 per share, but I'd want at least double that to feel good about the sale.
I said earlier that I'd take $3, but honestly that was before I saw what Matt was capable of and before the recent deals for TS development. I wonder what Al's breakeven point is. I doubt he'd accept anything less than a 25% bump from his original investment. I wouldn't.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 26, 2016 15:20:37 GMT -5
Doesn't posting complete articles from newspapers, magazines, and news agencies such as Reuters violate copyright laws? Links are OK, as are brief quotes, but not complete articles. Isn't there a fair use argument that desperate investors in MNKD are dependent on scraps of good news to avoid jumping out of windows... maybe that's a compassionate use argument. |
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Post by madog365 on Jan 26, 2016 15:20:40 GMT -5
while i agree with you, i don't believe a company will come in and buy Mannkind right now anywhere near what we all think it's worth in the long run.
Would you be willing to accept an offer under a billion? If MNKD is sold, it's because our hand was forced and not because Al Mann wanted it.
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Post by kball on Jan 26, 2016 15:22:24 GMT -5
So now you know what they talked about at the Deerfield meeting. It is much the same conversation Deerfield had with Dendreon in the late summer of 2013 right before they hired JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch to quietly shop the company. So a possible chance for GS to make a shit-ton on the long side now if we hire them as IB? |
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Post by stevil on Jan 26, 2016 15:24:28 GMT -5
while i agree with you, i don't believe a company will come in and buy Mannkind right now anywhere near what we all think it's worth in the long run. Would you be willing to accept an offer under a billion? If MNKD is sold, it's because our hand was forced and not because Al Mann wanted it. Correct. MNKD doesn't sell here if they feel like they can avoid bankruptcy. |
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Post by jonnykrush on Jan 26, 2016 15:26:56 GMT -5
How could this possibly be good news for longs at the current pps levels...? What a company could/would reasonably pay for MNKD is not going to be what it would have been a year ago for sure. But, the share price of a company does factor in risk. A reasonable argument could be made that there is significant bankruptcy risk factored into the trading price. An acquirer would be buying on value of company without that risk factor built in. The trading price causes difficulties for MNKD in negotiations, but if a company acquires MNKD they will need to argue to their shareholders that Afrezza has value and market potential, and if they do that they certainly could justify more than $1 even if Afrezza were to only get a small slice of prandial market. How much more than $1 could be negotiated successfully by MNKD, and justified to shareholders by the acquirer (assuming it were public) is another question... I doubt it would be $7.5 as someone above is wishing for. Good point about BK risk factor on current sp. Pretty much all depends on what Al will accept. I don't think $3-$4 billion is out of the realm of possibility for the whole enchilada, but is definitely ambitious for Afrezza at this point. One thing is certain, big/ smart money will know before we do and the sp will react accordingly... |
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