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Post by robsacher on Feb 16, 2016 17:26:44 GMT -5
Here's a thought. Should MannKind find a deep pocket partner to take over costs associated with Technosphere, or sell off Technosphere, in order to significantly reduce operating expenses and focus on making Afrezza a success in the diabetes community?
The pros associated with such a move would be to find capital needed to market Afrezza. Also, selling a large part of Technosphere might reduce the bulk of MannKind's overhead costs.
Is the potential financial upside of Afrezza significantly higher for MannKind than the upside associated with Technosphere even if Technosphere can be used for several new drugs?
The cons associated with selling off a large part or all of Technosphere are obviously that this would make MannKind singularly focused on one product with all management's eggs in one basket.
Does management think of itself as a technology company or a product driven company if the decision should have to be made?
In any event, is this a possible course of action if MannKind find themselves another four months up the road and still losing a lot of money?
Thoughts, please...
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Post by mnkdorbust on Feb 16, 2016 18:08:48 GMT -5
Selfishly i would like to see MannKind keep both. I would like to see them partner with someone for foreign countries for Afrezza but take it and run with it in the US. I realize the lack of information we have as investors currently suggests they are on the red Empty mark on the fuel tank in regards to cash so cash is king and we appear to be lacking it. Like most of us long timers here some days i'd just like to see $3 or $4 per share again and get out as close to unscathed as possible (and never look back) but other days I envision the potential to say 10 years down the road that MannKind is known as one of the big Pharma companies changing lives for the better which seems to be frowned upon by most Pharma these days. All that said i think the potential for Afrezza is huge but i think the potential for Technosphere is larger. But once again that thinking has proven financially painful.
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Post by kc on Feb 16, 2016 19:59:56 GMT -5
Rob,
Good thread. I always appreciate your thoughtfulness on MannKind. This is a cut and past from two other threads that I commented on. The company should be kept whole as the cost to split it will again result in a diminution of value to the shareholder and will take a lot of time and be costly to the shareholder. We frankly don't have the time or the money to spend on the legal work to split the company. A buyer will find more value in the total package especially if they have the ability to monetize Technosphere. I have never really put the value into Technosphere as others have on this board. My valuation for it is its an add on piece of MannKind that has yet to be developed. Yes we have lots of patents but no other tested and FDA approved drug other than Afrezza. Without another drug the value is minimal. My view is that Afrezza has tremendous value to the company that figures out how to market it in the USA and Worldwide. You can read my comment below:
I made this comment on January 6th when things looked very bad for MannKind. My view is still the same in that the company needs to be owned by a larger better financed company. What is the value? that will be determined by the market. but on the low side its what my comment below states and on the high side I would put it no higher than about $15 to $20. if the buyer gives us their stock its would be ok with me. The right owner or partner will make Afrezza a blockbuster drug.
My comment below:
Al can't be the savior on this issue. The need a big time investor/partner. I hope they find it in time to save the company and our shareholder value. My avg is way too high at about $6.50 and that includes a lot of shares in the $1.0 + range. This is a tough position for the company. It needs to be sold to a investor or company that has the ability to get the product on the market. Sanofi wanted to cream the market by pricing it high and that failed. The next company needs to price it below the market perhaps even closer to the price of Generic Insulin pens. I don't know the cost to produce our product but I know that Insulin is cheap and the big boys make a bunch of money on it. The control the pricing and have moved it up higher than it needs to be. A smart company like a Teva could price very competitively and beat up the big boys.
I am sure that Al and his advisors know that they need to put the company up for Sale. I sure hope that we get a fair price and that I get close to my AVG cost per share. But If not than I have learned a very big lesson. Hopefully I get a pay out on my Mannkind stock and not a huge carry forward loss.
Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/user/284/recent?page=4#ixzz3yP0GA7j5
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Post by benyiju on Feb 16, 2016 22:39:36 GMT -5
Selfishly i would like to see MannKind keep both. I would like to see them partner with someone for foreign countries for Afrezza but take it and run with it in the US. I realize the lack of information we have as investors currently suggests they are on the red Empty mark on the fuel tank in regards to cash so cash is king and we appear to be lacking it. Like most of us long timers here some days i'd just like to see $3 or $4 per share again and get out as close to unscathed as possible (and never look back) but other days I envision the potential to say 10 years down the road that MannKind is known as one of the big Pharma companies changing lives for the better which seems to be frowned upon by most Pharma these days. All that said i think the potential for Afrezza is huge but i think the potential for Technosphere is larger. But once again that thinking has proven financially painful. MannKind can't market Afrezza alone in the US. It just isn't possible, they don't have the resources and they can't afford to pay for the experience and resources they would need. This is why analysts call Matt P's harebrained ideas about 'social media marketing' and opening Afrezza clinics 'desperate' and 'designed to convince unsophisticated investors not to sell'. Personally I think Matt is just playing for time until they can find a new partner. At least I hope he's not stupid enough to think that either of those knucklehead schemes are going to work. Either MannKind finds a partner for US marketing or they need to sell Afrezza, period. There are no other options at this point, short of selling the whole company lock, stock, and barrel. Likewise, Rob Sacher's idea is not workable without a partner, and if MNKD can land a partner, it would be stupid to sell TS at the low valuation they would get currently (unless things are so bad that they can't get any upfront money for Afrezza, which I desperately hope is not the case). |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 17, 2016 1:02:51 GMT -5
And as per a recent tweet reply, none of the TS patents seem to give any protection from the nasal breath powered migraine drug that just hit the market. So the value of TS patents would be in 1) potential for inhaled drugs and 2) the effectiveness of these patents stopping people from developing competing powdered delivery methods. I'm assuming that the migraine probably works by being absorbed in the nasal passages. Perhaps TS does provide broader protection for powders aimed at the lungs... though perhaps even with the 900 patents the only thing they prevent is someone from using the same carrier particle. |
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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 17, 2016 12:58:12 GMT -5
"Should MannKind find a deep pocket partner to take over costs associated with Technosphere, or sell off Technosphere, in order to significantly reduce operating expenses and focus on making Afrezza a success in the diabetes community?"
Even if it should, I am not optimistic it could. IMO, history has demonstrated that industry interest in TS is underwhelming.
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Post by mindovermatter on Feb 17, 2016 13:15:42 GMT -5
"Should MannKind find a deep pocket partner to take over costs associated with Technosphere, or sell off Technosphere, in order to significantly reduce operating expenses and focus on making Afrezza a success in the diabetes community?" Even if it should, I am not optimistic it could. IMO, history has demonstrated that industry interest in TS is underwhelming. The fact that Mannkind has yet to sign anyone for a TS deal, a technology it has had for about a decade, other than Afrezza --and that was only done after approval-- tells us all we need to know about what the industry thinks about it or more about partnering with Al. |
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Feb 17, 2016 13:51:42 GMT -5
Interesting thread. Techno sphere has great potential, I think I would rather see them sell Afrezza. But, all of the posts above are valid. We have to see what happens with RLS. If they can bring some light to "the industry" about TS, there would be a lot of interest as opposed to none. But that's the scenario that is still scary- time. It will take time.
Here's another thought. About 60 years ago Corningware developed a glass that no one was interested in. There, it sat, because nobody thought it was useful.
All of a sudden, it's now in everyone's homes, offices and pockets. I may be a little off on the specifics, because I haven't though of the example in years, so feel free to correct. If I remember correctly, the product was referred to as gorilla glass....?
I hope the timeline for TS is sooner.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 17, 2016 15:00:57 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I think it is Afrezza which is drawing the fire and the stock price manipulation. I think Afrezza could be sold for a few billions and save Mannkind Corp's hind side. Selling Afrezza for a few B would nicely capitalize MNKD for developing TS, and it would remove the stock from the cross-hairs of interests wanting to kill Afrezza and placing them on some company who hopefully can more successfully market Afrezza and fend off the crazies.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 17, 2016 16:51:11 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I think it is Afrezza which is drawing the fire and the stock price manipulation. I think Afrezza could be sold for a few billions and save Mannkind Corp's hind side. Selling Afrezza for a few B would nicely capitalize MNKD for developing TS, and it would remove the stock from the cross-hairs of interests wanting to kill Afrezza and placing them on some company who hopefully can more successfully market Afrezza and fend off the crazies. Undoubtedly several BP in diabetes space are hoping Afrezza fails and doing what they can to make that happen... but I wouldn't call them crazies... just business as usual in the cut throat world of capitalism. The people going after MNKD purely as a short target are probably more the wild west ones. They are driven crazy by the taste of blood in the water. |
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Post by robsacher on Feb 19, 2016 20:45:47 GMT -5
Thank you for your thoughts on the question. I am hoping that MannKind can continue to afford to spend money on Technosphere and that issue will not be a burden on marketing Afrezza. At this point, I would think that Afrezza is not a huge financial burden on the company and that Afrezza will generate revenue in many ways within the next year.
However, in an unrelated issue, I am concerned that Al Mann has not expressed anything about his willingness to see MannKind through this period. The thought that he might take the company private does concern me, a lot...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 19, 2016 21:41:13 GMT -5
Thank you for your thoughts on the question. I am hoping that MannKind can continue to afford to spend money on Technosphere and that issue will not be a burden on marketing Afrezza. At this point, I would think that Afrezza is not a huge financial burden on the company and that Afrezza will generate revenue in many ways within the next year. However, in an unrelated issue, I am concerned that Al Mann has not expressed anything about his willingness to see MannKind through this period. The thought that he might take the company private does concern me, a lot... Wouldn't resigning from the board be a strange move if he were going to take it private. |
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Post by lakon on Feb 21, 2016 11:37:35 GMT -5
Resigning from the Board resolves many issues, especially if Mr. Mann wants the freedom to act without the burden of being the Chairmen of a public company and all the regulatory oversight that goes along with it. Of course, continuing as a non-executive employee in an advisory role would continue to limit him somewhat. Personally, I think his resignation is just prudent planning for the future, and I hope his health continues for a long time to come.
Back on topic: No, I think executive management has been clear that MNKD is a drug development company. Afrezza is the first drug that they will see through marketing one way or the other. I do not see them throwing the baby out with the bath water. I would not want this, unless existing shareholders get a significant piece of the spin-off. I view Technosphere as the goose that lays eggs that become geese that lay golden eggs. Afrezza just hatched. Give her time to start laying golden eggs. Technosphere is the medical device, albeit smaller than most can imagine, including the FDA.
BTW, Rob, I like your contributions and articles.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Feb 21, 2016 15:45:57 GMT -5
Back on topic: No, I think executive management has been clear that MNKD is a drug development company. Afrezza is the first drug that they will see through marketing one way or the other. I do not see them throwing the baby out with the bath water. I would not want this, unless existing shareholders get a significant piece of the spin-off. I view Technosphere as the goose that lays eggs that become geese that lay golden eggs. Afrezza just hatched. Give her time to start laying golden eggs. Technosphere is the medical device, albeit smaller than most can imagine, including the FDA. BTW, Rob, I like your contributions and articles. I agree fully. I would rather see Afrezza sold off to some Pharma that can market it properly, get it accepted by numerous insurance companies and find acceptance throughout the world. Get whatever they can for it, with the understanding that this new entity will not squash Afrezza but rather work to make out one of their top drugs. Then take the hundreds or thousands of millions (i'd even accept billions, thank you) and build MNKD into the development company it is supposed to be. It is the drug delivery device of the future and can't be allowed to languish or die from lack of funding. Ditto... Thanks Rob for all of your hard work, fine reporting and ongoing support! |
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Post by quark44 on Feb 21, 2016 16:06:34 GMT -5
Back on topic: No, I think executive management has been clear that MNKD is a drug development company. Afrezza is the first drug that they will see through marketing one way or the other. I do not see them throwing the baby out with the bath water. I would not want this, unless existing shareholders get a significant piece of the spin-off. I view Technosphere as the goose that lays eggs that become geese that lay golden eggs. Afrezza just hatched. Give her time to start laying golden eggs. Technosphere is the medical device, albeit smaller than most can imagine, including the FDA. BTW, Rob, I like your contributions and articles. I agree fully. I would rather see Afrezza sold off to some Pharma that can market it properly, get it accepted by numerous insurance companies and find acceptance throughout the world. Get whatever they can for it, with the understanding that this new entity will not squash Afrezza but rather work to make out one of their top drugs. Then take the hundreds or thousands of millions (i'd even accept billions, thank you) and build MNKD into the development company it is supposed to be. It is the drug delivery device of the future and can't be allowed to languish or die from lack of funding. Ditto... Thanks Rob for all of your hard work, fine reporting and ongoing support! I could be wrong since it's been a while, but I seem to remember Matt Pfeffer stating that Mannkind no longer considers itself a "drug company" but rather a technology (that may be the wrong word) company that will concentrate primarily on its patented and approved delivery system through partnerships. Did I dream that? I don't see the company spinning off Technosphere to concentrate on Afrezza. I think Mannkind would be more likely (though I still don't think it'll happen) to outright sell the Afrezza rights and continue with partnering to license out Technosphere like we are seeing with RLS. |
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