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Post by mnholdem on Feb 24, 2016 13:01:21 GMT -5
I have approximately 12-14 stocks from the biotech industry that I keep track of using a watch list in my Scottrade account.
Many MNKD shareholders are of the opinion that powerful Wall Street forces have singled out MannKind Corporation and are manipulating its stock. I'm not so sure. Take a look at the 3-month graphs of just a few of the stocks that I've been tracking:
MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) is displayed in the 2nd column / 2nd from the top. Now, I could easily add another dozen of the Bio stocks that I'm tracking which have the pretty much the same pattern on the 3-month graph.
Still think that it's just MannKind that "they" are after?
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I post this message because I think that it's easy to lose perspective sometimes. It's all too tempting to look at recent events surrounding MannKind Corporation or at management and to solely blame them for the continuous slide in share price. I think, as you can see from the graphs (above) that there is more to the story. There is much larger picture we have lost sight of.
This pattern could be cyclical in nature. It could be the result of negative investor sentiment caused by the attention this sector is getting (ie Shkreli) prior to the 2016 political elections, with candidates promising to do something about "scandalous" drug prices and bring an end to outrageous profits by drug companies. The slide in share prices that is affecting hundreds of companies in this sector/industry could be the result of many things. But whatever it is, it's happening to nearly every company similar in nature to MannKind Corporation.
So I think we, as shareholders, should be cautious about blaming poor management for the recent decline in MNKD stock prices. If poor management is the reason, then there must be an awful lot of stupid CEO's and BoD's in the biotech/drug development/pharmaceutical industry.
Good fortune all.
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Post by longinvstr on Feb 24, 2016 13:48:49 GMT -5
Good to have context in this environment
I do blame management for most all that ales us but not MNKD management. They, like the rest of us, have been passengers on the bus. The bus that has been abandoned w/ two wheels off the road, over a cliff! Yes, they inked the deal w/ SNY but what SNY did w/ Afrezza defies logic.
June/July seems to mark the beginning of the flight of speculative capital away from speculative investments. True to form, it signaled the six month lead to money becoming more expensive and the FFR bump in Dec.
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Post by gcozz on Feb 24, 2016 13:49:16 GMT -5
There's no doubt that MNKD has suffered due to company specific issues, but I agree with MN. IBB the biotech ETF is off approx 24% YTD (yes, MNKD is a small part of the underlying index) while MNKD is down approx 30%. In general, the markets in 2016 have displayed an aversion to taking on risk.
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Post by jurystillout on Feb 24, 2016 16:14:13 GMT -5
I have to respectfully disagree, and I think Matt even made reference to the mistakes that were made in the contract w/sny. From day one of the contract with SNY I have been harping about having signed an exclusive contract with total lack of product control, and the lack of documented contractual commitment on behalf of sny. The contract was signed with the assumption that SNY would do what they said however the contract didn't bind them to any time line, committed sales, agenda for marketing...This in itself is a huge boo boo on managements part and it's what put us in the position we are today. I can't speak to why the other companies you have mentioned have had such poor performance, I think Janet Yellen's comments about there being a bio-tech bubble sure didn't help. With that said, everyone makes mistakes, I don't know who dropped the ball on the sny contract and at this point it really doesn't matter, what does matter is what they do going forward. I believe they are capable of righting the ship if they make smart decisions and sign good contracts.
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Post by sportsrancho on Feb 24, 2016 16:30:30 GMT -5
I have approximately 12-14 stocks from the biotech industry that I keep track of using a watch list in my Scottrade account.
Many MNKD shareholders are of the opinion that powerful Wall Street forces have singled out MannKind Corporation and are manipulating its stock. I'm not so sure. Take a look at the 3-month graphs of just a few of the stocks that I've been tracking:
MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) is displayed in the 2nd column / 2nd from the top. Now, I could easily add another dozen of the Bio stocks that I'm tracking which have the pretty much the same pattern on the 3-month graph.
Still think that it's just MannKind that "they" are after?
---
I post this message because I think that it's easy to lose perspective sometimes. It's all too tempting to look at recent events surrounding MannKind Corporation or at management and to solely blame them for the continuous slide in share price. I think, as you can see from the graphs (above) that there is more to the story. There is much larger picture we have lost sight of.
This pattern could be cyclical in nature. It could be the result of negative investor sentiment caused by the attention this sector is getting (ie Shkreli) prior to the 2016 political elections, with candidates promising to do something about "scandalous" drug prices and bring an end to outrageous profits by drug companies. The slide in share prices that is affecting hundreds of companies in this sector/industry could be the result of many things. But whatever it is, it's happening to nearly every company similar in nature to MannKind Corporation.
So I think we, as shareholders, should be cautious about blaming poor management for the recent decline in MNKD stock prices. If poor management is the reason, then there must be an awful lot of stupid CEO's and BoD's in the biotech/drug development/pharmaceutical industry.
Good fortune all.
Very good point. And the people on their stock boards, I've read some, are also screaming manipulation.
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 24, 2016 16:40:16 GMT -5
Those charts are interesting to compare. Makes me feel a little better about the last three months. However, i bet if we look at the same companies' 6 months and one year charts the similarities will end. I don't know for sure, just a strong suspicion. As for biotechs in general, it seems reasonable to predict continued weakness until the election is over.
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 25, 2016 11:11:35 GMT -5
I wondered that, too, so here are charts showing 1-Year by Week:
Mannkind is 2nd column / 2nd from bottom. Some may argue that it looks better than the others, having turned sideways for the past couple months.
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Post by kc on Feb 25, 2016 11:35:00 GMT -5
We are just focused on Mannkind but personally I have more than 30 different positions and most of them have that downward trail. Some of the worst are in the industrial sector like Trinity, Chicago bridge and iron, oil patch stocks are hurting. The entire market is gasping for energy. Good Bio stocks are hurting, bank stocks are down. What we are seeing is the end of federal reserve stimulation. The election creates much uncertainty. Our economy is hurting badly. Jobs creation in America are not high paying ones. It's fast food.
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Post by mnkdfann on Feb 25, 2016 11:37:34 GMT -5
I cannot make out the vertical scales. In any case, for this sort of comparison, you really need to compare plots that include the zero on the vertical. Otherwise the difference is scale between plots can be very misleading. passyworldofmathematics.com/misleading-graphs/
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 25, 2016 12:32:15 GMT -5
Your point about graph can be addressed by looking at percentages.
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TICKER / 52-wk Hi / Current / +/-% ACAD / 50.00 / 18.48 / -63% CARA / 21.75 / 6.93 / -68% EXAS / 29.78 / 5.69 / -79% HALO / 24.72 / 7.77 / -68% INO / 10.40 / 6.35 / -39% IONS / 74.00 / 33.06 / -55% MNKD / 6.14 / 1.09 / -82% NLNK / 55.50 / 21.67 / 60%
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MannKind share price has eroded more than others, but not by much and, as sportsrancho pointed out, shareholders of these other companies are complaining about stock manipulation similar to what MNKD shareholders are saying.
I have no doubt that there is some daily manipulation in the stock market, but it's not narrowly confined to MNKD, even though it feels like it some days. I merely illustrate that investors as a whole seem to have diverted their investment $$$ outside the biotech industry. When they return, I suspect that MNKD will look very attractive compared to others in this industry. When that happens, there will be little stopping a significant rally, IMHO.
While we wait, news may cause some +/- adjustments to MNKD share price, but I think my point is valid. This entire sector is not faring well and has been pulling MNKD (& many others) down with it.
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Post by nylefty on Feb 25, 2016 12:50:44 GMT -5
But if you look at the past 30 days, you get this:
Biotechs in general (IBB): DOWN 8.97 percent MNKD: UP 44.79 percent
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 25, 2016 12:51:46 GMT -5
CONSIDER
While I heartily agree that biotech overall has taken a beating, that doesn't mean manipulation is not prime here.
1. Note that for biotech industry, a number of articles in business press about HFs e.g. using law suits against patents to drive prices down
2. The percentage/number of short interest on MNKD making it one of the top shorted stocks
3. Sheer amount of FTDs
So while they are all down, it would seem that biotech is especially susceptible (likely because the high valuations put a big target sign on there), and that of biotech, MNKD may have one of the biggest signs.
So agreed . When IBB is down, or market overall is down, people are quick to screen 'funkers'. But that doesn't mean its also still not true.
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Post by BlueCat on Feb 25, 2016 12:52:59 GMT -5
But if you look at the past 30 days, you get this: Biotechs in general (IBB): DOWN 8.97 percent MNKD: UP 44.79 percent Yes. and lest we not forget that manipulation goes both ways. See also: Pump and Dump
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 25, 2016 19:55:26 GMT -5
mnholdem, thank you for addressing the point about vertical scales, that was going to be my question as well. Nice job presenting that info, we do indeed have lots of company. MNKD has been hammered more than even those others, but perhaps because of the obviously precarious cash situation. We gotta get that resolved, and survive until post-election, hopefully then biotechs in general will surge and we can benefit from the rising tide.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 20:56:48 GMT -5
I have to respectfully disagree, and I think Matt even made reference to the mistakes that were made in the contract w/sny. From day one of the contract with SNY I have been harping about having signed an exclusive contract with total lack of product control, and the lack of documented contractual commitment on behalf of sny. The contract was signed with the assumption that SNY would do what they said however the contract didn't bind them to any time line, committed sales, agenda for marketing...This in itself is a huge boo boo on managements part and it's what put us in the position we are today. I can't speak to why the other companies you have mentioned have had such poor performance, I think Janet Yellen's comments about there being a bio-tech bubble sure didn't help. With that said, everyone makes mistakes, I don't know who dropped the ball on the sny contract and at this point it really doesn't matter, what does matter is what they do going forward. I believe they are capable of righting the ship if they make smart decisions and sign good contracts. This is on their lawyers though or not paying for top notch lawyers. I cannot imagine a change in management clause not thrown into the contract. These guys should cover all angels. This was beofre my time but weren't trials set up poorly to show superiority and that was on MNKD
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