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Post by biotec on Mar 21, 2014 7:04:27 GMT -5
Goyo had a great post, Why are we paying Greenhill then?Take a good look at their site, Most of the work is buyouts/acquisitions, Not many partnership deals.
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Post by StevieRay on Mar 21, 2014 8:49:19 GMT -5
Goyo had a great post, Why are we paying Greenhill then?Take a good look at their site, Most of the work is buyouts/acquisitions, Not many partnership deals. I told myself I wouldn’t be drawn into these highly speculative discussions but here I am speculating again. I guess that’s just part of being human. We all know Al’s history of creating successful enterprises and selling them. But how many of these has he actually put his name on? How much time and money has been spent developing Afrezza? The true measure of success is Afrezza’s market penetration. This takes time and I believe a shrewd and prudent strategy would consist of multiple partners which facilitates competition resulting in deeper market penetration. If and when a buyout does occur I speculate it will be long after the launch. Looking back at several conference transcripts and 10K fillings you see words such as Partners/Partnerships vs. For Sale/Buyer/Buyout. Here’s an excerpt with Al discussing partnerships from 5/10/2013: “Having multiple potential partners engaged in last step will keep us fairly busy this fall. At the same time, our potential partners will themselves have to be quite focused. The company that can quickly translate its diligence findings into a decision to move forward will have a distinct advantage over its peers in the partnering process that we are creating. So we are expecting some exciting events that we’re confident will lead to FDA approval and launch of this important drug device combination which is to address the enormous diabetes pandemic. The need is so great that I believe AFREZZA could potentially even become the most significant [medical] product ever. People ask why at my advanced age and after such a successful career I’m so committed to AFREZZA, even having personally provided about $930 million of the $2 billion so far invested. If we could significantly contribute to resolution of the enormous diabetes crisis, wouldn’t that justify all this? Perhaps you can now understand what is driving me. So thank you all for joining us today and we’ll now open up the call to your questions.”
I speculate we will see multiple partnerships followed by a few years of sales & marketing before we ever see a buyout. This will fetch more long term gains than an out right buyout from the get go in my opinion. Once again this is just all speculation.
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Mar 21, 2014 9:30:28 GMT -5
StevieRay,
I have always believed the best thing for MNKD would be multiple partners who can all harness Afrezza but also have access to Technosphere for their own desired drugs. It allows MNKD to fully exploit their technology without limiting it to just one company and allows those pharmas to further enhance their older drugs. It's a win win for everyone unless there is something I have over looked. Let me also add, Mannkind will control the manufacturing but the build outs will be paid for by each pharma that partners. If that "dream" of mine comes to fruition, how would you value MNKD as a company? What type of valuation would it garner? That question boggles the mind.
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Post by StevieRay on Mar 21, 2014 10:07:18 GMT -5
mnkdmillionaire,
I definitely agree having multiple marketing partners increases Afrezza’s market penetration. I have an interesting question about manufacturing. Can the same Afrezza manufacturing plant produce another Technoshpere drug? Or is the plant/production line solely dedicated to a single application. My guess is you could use the same production line equipment to produce multiple drugs assuming the line is thoroughly cleaned each time you switched to a different drug batch. Depending on the demand for the particular drug you may require dedicated lines that run 24/7. I assume that will be the case for Afrezza. But for some other drugs like pain medication may not need a 24/7 production line. MannKind’s long term outlook might just be in the manufacturing business of combining Technosphere with other pharma company’s drugs. If this is where they are headed then it’s very difficult to predict what the value will be. It really depends on each drug. Once Afrezza is launched and we launch another drug soon after then I think we will have a better handle on the real possibilities.
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Mar 21, 2014 10:41:07 GMT -5
mnkdmillionaire, I definitely agree having multiple marketing partners increases Afrezza’s market penetration. I have an interesting question about manufacturing. Can the same Afrezza manufacturing plant produce another Technoshpere drug? Or is the plant/production line solely dedicated to a single application. My guess is you could use the same production line equipment to produce multiple drugs assuming the line is thoroughly cleaned each time you switched to a different drug batch. Depending on the demand for the particular drug you may require dedicated lines that run 24/7. I assume that will be the case for Afrezza. But for some other drugs like pain medication may not need a 24/7 production line. MannKind’s long term outlook might just be in the manufacturing business of combining Technosphere with other pharma company’s drugs. If this is where they are headed then it’s very difficult to predict what the value will be. It really depends on each drug. Once Afrezza is launched and we launch another drug soon after then I think we will have a better handle on the real possibilities. That's a good question in regards to different drugs on the same line of machinery. I don't know. I figure an email to Matt could answer that. I'll attempt to email him that and see if I get an answer. I would assume that as of right now, all resources will go to producing Afrezza and nothing else. But, there was a hint about that inhaled pain medication. That's coming soon, imho. So maybe the same line can be used for different drug productions. update..i emailed IR/Matt in regards to using the same equipment to manufacture other drugs with out any retooling. Hopefully I'll get an answer back soon
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Post by biotec on Mar 21, 2014 11:43:00 GMT -5
I find it fun to speculate. Also keep in mind that Al will not be around forever, This is another issue worth thinking about in the long term of MNKD.
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Post by alcc on Mar 21, 2014 12:16:32 GMT -5
Having a few special-case local partners (say, India and China) is one thing, but I think multiple global partners is unlikely and undesirable. I am not aware of any major drug that is marketed in multiple markets by more than one BP partners. Should that happen, a buyout would not be in the cards. The most likely, and best, scenario remains a royalty-based (i.e. no MNKD manufacturing) partnership with one BP that includes a buyout clause with a valuation based on multiples of revenue and say a 3-5 yr expiration.
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Post by StevieRay on Mar 21, 2014 12:30:48 GMT -5
I find it fun to speculate. Also keep in mind that Al will not be around forever, This is another issue worth thinking about in the long term of MNKD. When I was a kid setting around the Christmas tree with my other siblings we often speculated about each present. This wild speculation often led us children in attempting to unwrap packages in such a way that it would go unnoticed by our parents. After disappointing discoveries it was more difficult to take the necessary time and care required to conceal our package peeking. And when confronted by our parents we all lied as well as 8, 10 and 12 year olds can which is not very well. So the next year our parents played a little trick on their mischievous children. Of coarse we have absolutely no memory of what happened the year before as we began our pondering of the Christmas packages. Which subsequently led to peeking at some extremely rotten gifts! I don’t recall asking Santa for a Barbie dolls or any baby toys! Our parents really got a kick out of us that year! It must have been fun watching an 8 year old open up what he knows to be a horrible gift turn out to be something really spectacular. From that year on, only dummy gifts where placed around the tree prior to Christmas. The real gifts must have been hidden at relatives house until early (3am) Christmas morning because we looked everywhere and found nothing which was pretty scary! I guess my point is positive speculation usually leads to more wild speculation which tends to sow seeds of high expectations which can easily lead to disappointment when it conflicts with reality.
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Post by mannmade on Mar 21, 2014 12:52:55 GMT -5
Stevie I agree with you... Too much speculation over something which we don't have enough information and do not have control over can only lead to disappointment as expectations are not managed. For me personally, we know there are 3 near term binary events; 1.) Ad Com Agenda, (which i think AF and Co. will find a way to trash no matter what, so I expect a bit of a fall in share price before Ad Com Hearing) 2.) Ad Com which pending vote either we go up or we go down (but without any major unexpected revelations I believe in the science and we should ultimately be approved even with a less than unanimous vote) and lastly 3.) FDA Decision/PDUFA. I am expecting approval (however PDUFA pending the tone of Ad Com Discussions/hearing could be pushed back by as much as 3 months, so must plan for that). At the end of the day, my expectations are that within 3 months or sooner (after 4 1/2 years for me personally of investing and following almost very day) Afrezza should be approved. Partnership who knows when or what? What I do know is that if approved as I expect the share price will go up. How much I do not know but will likely make me very happy with my investment. As my father once said "Find the path of progress and then get ahead..." I think as a devoted long I/we have all found this... GLTA...
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Post by StevieRay on Mar 21, 2014 14:06:16 GMT -5
Having a few special-case local partners (say, India and China) is one thing, but I think multiple global partners is unlikely and undesirable. I am not aware of any major drug that is marketed in multiple markets by more than one BP partners. Should that happen, a buyout would not be in the cards. The most likely, and best, scenario remains a royalty-based (i.e. no MNKD manufacturing) partnership with one BP that includes a buyout clause with a valuation based on multiples of revenue and say a 3-5 yr expiration. I guess we have a different interpretation of "global". I think we will have at least two Big Pharma players that market the product globally. It will be divided up so they are not competing on the same ground. I don't consider say India and China as "local". To me this is global at least from my perspective. Handing Afrezza over to just one single Big Pharma to market to the entire globe would be foolish. Way too much ground to cover even for the biggest players.
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 21, 2014 17:44:31 GMT -5
Mannmade wrote: "1.) Ad Com Agenda, (which i think AF and Co. will find a way to trash no matter what, so I expect a bit of a fall in share price before Ad Com Hearing)"
I've been thinking of that for some time, mannmade, and will definitely consider buying some shares on Friday, assuming the trashing we're sure to get takes us down some, with the idea of selling back Monday late, when there may be a little run-up before April 1.
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Post by mannmade on Mar 21, 2014 20:38:53 GMT -5
Babaoriley, yes was thinking same and working on a strategy. I strongly believe Afrezza will ultimately get approval. However, I think it is also prudent to consider that the near term issues (if any occur) in the absence of a clearly positive Ad Com Agenda and also a clearly positive Ad Com hearing and vote will be a lukewarm or negative interpretation of the agenda, discussion and vote which will provide AF and Co. an opportunity to slam mnkd driving the share price down. Also if PDUFA is then pushed back (which I am betting we will not hear about until after the Ad Com if it happens) then this will also be used by the shorts to suggest that FDA is likely not to approve taking share price down further.
It would also likely delay partnership announcement so the shorts will have additional time to do their thing. Just my opinion and observations as am trying to plan for what I think is the worst case... As I said before I believe we will prevail but we may still have some headwinds in front of us... Will know soon enough...
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