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Post by biotec on Mar 22, 2014 19:17:30 GMT -5
So close to the FDA pudufa. Why are we in the 5's? Where is the run up? Yes we have a mkt cap of 2.2 bil, But we are looking at type 1 and 2 market. We ran in the 8's after trials last fall. I have a feeling that we get the green light on type 1 only. How do you think that will effect the stock price?AdCom will be heavy with long time lung function ?s, And type 1 and 2 labels. JMOA
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Mar 22, 2014 21:23:34 GMT -5
So close to the FDA pudufa. Why are we in the 5's? Where is the run up? Yes we have a mkt cap of 2.2 bil, But we are looking at type 1 and 2 market. We ran in the 8's after trials last fall. I have a feeling that we get the green light on type 1 only. How do you think that will effect the stock price?AdCom will be heavy with long time lung function ?s, And type 1 and 2 labels. JMOA so your conjecture without information is that type II won't be approved based on what! My god henny penny the sky is falling.. based on your science? Then there must be a leak and everyone knows about it except for the researchers on this board. Thanks so much for your contribution... what was it again? |
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Post by biotec on Mar 23, 2014 5:40:24 GMT -5
Again JMOA, Everyone is allowed to voice what they think, Good or bad.And my research is the stock price. Have you seen it?
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Post by rak5555 on Mar 23, 2014 8:29:10 GMT -5
My 2 cents: 50% chance type 1 only; 30% chance across the board approval; 10% chance type 1 and some narrower subset of type 2; 10% chance my wife needs to hide the guns.
Just like biotec, this is just an opinion and I am very (too) long.
Also, while we're at it, I give 60% chance of up to 90 day delay and recently rolled my May options out to January as a precaution.
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Post by spiro on Mar 23, 2014 9:32:09 GMT -5
The title of this thread should have been, Who Can Be The Most Pessimistic. Ok, boys, I will play too. Even though this is MNKD's 3rd try after apparently a last second change of mind by the FDA on the 2nd attempt, I give MNKD only a 20% chance of approval with type 1's. Let's forget the fact that the FDA also gave MNKD the opportunity to include type 2's in the 3rd submission and it clearly met all of it's important endpoints. I will only give type 2 a 6.321% chance of approval. Because the share price is only $5.87, I think the chance that both type 1 and type 2 getting approval is only 3.459 %. Now, if anyone truly believes that the chances of type 1 approval is 50% or less, they need to immediately get out of MNKD, particularly if you are sitting on an overall profit. I would agree with Rak's numbers if the AdCom votes against Afrezza. Rak may be suffering from Elderberry poisoning. If the AdCom votes in favor of approval, I will project a 95% chance of type 1 approval and an 80% chance of type 2 approval. The facts certainly support this outcome. Seriously, you guys need to read this again. www.beyondproxy.com/mannkind-corporation/Spiro here, in an all out OPTIMISTIC mood. |
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Post by mnkdfan on Mar 23, 2014 11:13:11 GMT -5
I am not sure I see the the correlation between share price and type I or II approval. Remember back around Jan 9th the price shot up to $7.15 when everyone thought an Adcom was not needed and the stock was up over $1.00 in one day. The next day MNKD dropped about $.80 with the Adcom announcement. I think it's because of the share price manipulation along with now having another gate or uncertainty adcom review that is holding the price back. Having said that, I have a suspicion that we will see the run-up to 6.50-7.00 next week.
Lastly, If Afrezza is safe for type I patients why would it not be safe for type II patients? Test trial results clearly show Afrezza to be superior in H1ac reduction than just using oral medication. I am of the opinion that Afrezza will be approved for both patient groups I and II. As you all recall, the ADA have stated that they prefer diabetes patients to be treated with insulin for glucose control sooner rather that later. Afrezza will be the only product in the world that will help doctors get patients to use insulin sooner by overcoming the mental injection fear (not to mention the fasting advantage).
For me, I have invested even more in MNKD because of the application for use in the type II patients.
MNKDFAN
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 23, 2014 11:26:14 GMT -5
The title of this thread should have been, Who Can Be The Most Pessimistic. Spiro here, in an all out OPTIMISTIC mood. Spiro, how can you possibly entitle this thread as you have without me having posted on it!!!  ? And as far as your mood, all it will take is for MNKD to open .20 down on Monday and you'll be joining the Dark-Siders! LOL! Get ready to do a little trading on March 28 when our share price gets hit (from what I hope is about $6.75 on Thursday), down to about $5.90. Buy some at $5.90, but don't forget to sell it at $6.60 on Monday! We're about to embark on some of the most significant trading days in the life of MNKD - March 27, 28, 31 and April 2 - and, ironically, the non-trading day, April 1, one of the biggest days in the life of MNKD. The rubber is truly meeting the road. |
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Post by mnkdfan on Mar 23, 2014 11:27:11 GMT -5
(not to mention the fasting advantage).
Sorry, I meant to say "Fast acting advantage"
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Post by spiro on Mar 23, 2014 11:33:09 GMT -5
I think Rak's reply should be disqualified because of it's deliberate and successful attempt to confuse the old folks on this board.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Mar 23, 2014 12:02:02 GMT -5
I think Rak's reply should be disqualified because of it's deliberate and successful attempt to confuse the old folks on this board. say that again sonny! I've gone deef. Old and feeble here; but no disbelief. |
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Post by biotec on Mar 23, 2014 12:34:12 GMT -5
My long term plan and still is, was to harvest 20% MNKD shares on the run up to pufda date. I hope we see that nice run up.
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Post by BD on Mar 23, 2014 13:04:30 GMT -5
Next time, everyone needs to post about how we're all shorting into PDUFA and there's no way the PPS will EVER make it up to 6 before partnership.
That will guarantee a run to 10 in the short-term...
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 23, 2014 13:30:22 GMT -5
BD, that is absolutely correct!
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Post by brentie on Mar 23, 2014 17:34:00 GMT -5
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Post by spiro on Mar 23, 2014 18:29:12 GMT -5
Thanks Brentie, it's tough being the most optimistic guy around. It's hard to refute logic and facts and this guy hasn't even included the potential revenue from Afrezza sales replacing the Alzheimer's linked Metformin in type 2's and potential new deals with technosphere. IMO, one thing is certain, should MNKD get a good label for both type 1 and type 2, MNKD will be taken out by a major pharma company soon after approval. Piss ant companies simply do not take mega drugs to the market. $50 a share sounds nice to me, but I am not sure Al would take so little.
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