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Post by agedhippie on Apr 26, 2016 19:27:56 GMT -5
@mannkindcorp: $MNKD Presenting 6 papers at #ADA2016 in June, including 2 late-breaking abstracts. The abstracts are up! There is one paper I could find by searching for 'inhaled' on Afrezza and this was the conclusion: Until long-term safety data are available, TI should be reserved for non-pregnant, non-smoking, adult patients with diabetes, free of pulmonary disease, who are needle-phobic and would otherwise delay initiating or intensifying insulin therapy. For patients who are needle-tolerant, subcutaneous insulin appears to be a better option. Searching on Technosphere found a late breaking item (not sure if it's a poster or a study) on using Afrezza with an upper respiratory tract infection which says it has no real impact as long as you can inhale properly. They did not cover lower respiratory tract infections. I tried searching on Afrezza and Mannkind as well with no luck. If anyone wants to have a go the abstract search page is here.
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Post by kball on Apr 26, 2016 19:29:38 GMT -5
I missed the call. Did they discuss formulary improvement at all? Bullet points with out the bullets. @mannkindcorp: $MNKD Uninterrupted supply of #Afrezza available through all channels. MNKD-branded inventory available early 3Q16.I heard it differently. Just Q3, not early Q3
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Post by sweedee79 on Apr 26, 2016 19:41:12 GMT -5
They are taking a slow methodical approach which I think is smart. As I have said in the past, Afrezza is different.. and therefore docs have to be educated before we chase the patients to them ... the dosing is so important... Months back I believed this is what SNY's plan was because it only made sense.. I promise you that for the most part doctors do NOT understand this drug... SNY did a very poor job of educating ... Without proper dosing... and educated prescribing docs we run a very high risk of losing patients and prescribing docs and may never get them back, as well as bad word of mouth advertising.... I am happy to hear that Matt and Mike understand this.
The only downside to a slow methodical approach is that the pps will continue to flounder... as does our cash burn.. However, MNKD doesn't sound or look like a company without a financial plan. It will be done right this time... and carried out by people who actually care.
Even though there wasn't a lot of excitement or inspiration in the CC today, at least they came out to shareholders and informed us which to me means a lot. For the past 18 months we have all been left to hope, wish for and speculate as to what was going on. I see us in a much better direction and position right now. I feel good about it...
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Post by tayl5 on Apr 26, 2016 19:44:45 GMT -5
I think the people bailing on MNKD are tired of MannKind kicking the can down the road. There are a lot of questions left unanswered. The people that were optimistic going into the call thought we might have a partner announcement. Or, that Sanofi was going to cough up some serious cash. They wanted to hear that MannKind would survive... That didn't happen. My expectations (I think) were more realistic. I didn't expect sales to make a turn around this year, and I figured that MannKinds evolution would be a long process. MannKind wasn't set up to market Afrezza, etc. and now they need to transform themselves into something new. They realized that with all the barriers to success for Afrezza the only option was to do it themselves. The problem is Afrezza is a hard sell for doctors. Prescriptions were wrong, lung tests a pain, and formulary access restricted, Label, etc.. It's going to take some time to change perceptions... Their marketing approach I think is the right one. And, the internal people (both talent wise, and ability to talk with shareholders) is greatly improved. MannKinds future in many ways looks bright, but there is the overhang of funding, and dilution is almost guaranteed. In other words, MNKD the stock looks terrible both technically and realistically. I wouldn't be surprised if we see MNKD < $1. The next call will be the tipping point, and it's just around the corner. I'm still Long MNKD and I'd like to set up a trade on some good news, but if there aren't answers to the finances in May I don't see the company surviving. If Al was still around I'd be very optimistic. If we had the cash to survive the next 2 years, I'd be backing up the truck right now. This call was based entirely on the assumption that MannKind will survive. The call on May 9 will need to show why that assumption is justified. Either M&M know how the cash problem will be solved or they are great actors. People can sell if they're nervous or short if they're crazy. I plan to hold my shares and see what happens, unless the doubters make me an offer I can't refuse. Then I'll add more.
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 26, 2016 19:50:57 GMT -5
One thing from the call (@ 9.25 )- they are targeting Type 1 actively managing their disease (I guess this is diabetics who will try new things), and Type 2 on basal insulin going to their specialist for better control. So they are not going to push Afrezza as an alternative to drugs or basal. That makes sense however I do not see these as a big market though so they are probably relying on the endos promoting it once they are comfortable.
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Post by nylefty on Apr 26, 2016 20:02:36 GMT -5
Nice note taking, patten! I couldn't keep up with Mike talking so fast. Your post (bullet points without bullets) is very much appreciated. Actually, Patten just copied the tweets that somebody at MannKind posted on Twitter. twitter.com/MannKindCorpI listened to the call while working out at the gym and my cell phone reception was not the best, but overall I was pleased by Matt and Mike's presentation. If I had any more bucks to spare I'd add to my MNKD position.
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Post by patten1962 on Apr 27, 2016 2:00:45 GMT -5
Nice note taking, patten! I couldn't keep up with Mike talking so fast. Your post (bullet points without bullets) is very much appreciated. Actually, Patten just copied the tweets that somebody at MannKind posted on Twitter. twitter.com/MannKindCorpI listened to the call while working out at the gym and my cell phone reception was not the best, but overall I was pleased by Matt and Mike's presentation. If I had any more bucks to spare I'd add to my MNKD position. 100% true. I never said I took notes. . At the end of my "notes" says from twitter.
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Post by mnholdem on Apr 27, 2016 4:58:06 GMT -5
Well thanks, anyway. I'm not a Twitterbug... or whatever Twitter users are called.
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Post by patten1962 on Apr 27, 2016 5:52:26 GMT -5
Well thanks, anyway. I'm not a Twitterbug... or whatever Twitter users are called. Thank you sir! You are a gentleman. Was not trying to trick anyone. Not trying to make anyone think I'm a court stenographer! Was just sharing the call. Fyi, all that info was sent to me as a text because I follow mannkind. I then copy and paste to notepad cleaned it up a bit. Then I copied my notepad to proboard.
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Post by sluggobear on Apr 27, 2016 9:58:07 GMT -5
@mannkindcorp: $MNKD Presenting 6 papers at #ADA2016 in June, including 2 late-breaking abstracts. The abstracts are up! There is one paper I could find by searching for 'inhaled' on Afrezza and this was the conclusion: Until long-term safety data are available, TI should be reserved for non-pregnant, non-smoking, adult patients with diabetes, free of pulmonary disease, who are needle-phobic and would otherwise delay initiating or intensifying insulin therapy. For patients who are needle-tolerant, subcutaneous insulin appears to be a better option. Searching on Technosphere found a late breaking item (not sure if it's a poster or a study) on using Afrezza with an upper respiratory tract infection which says it has no real impact as long as you can inhale properly. They did not cover lower respiratory tract infections. I tried searching on Afrezza and Mannkind as well with no luck. If anyone wants to have a go the abstract search page is here. I believe those abstracts are from 2015 and that 2016 abstracts are only available if you have registered for the meeting. Anyone registered here?
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 27, 2016 10:03:59 GMT -5
I believe those abstracts are from 2015 and that 2016 abstracts are only available if you have registered for the meeting. Anyone registered here? Whoops, yes those are last year's abstracts.
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Post by kball on Apr 27, 2016 10:33:06 GMT -5
So with all the craziness and uncertainty over the last 4 months, we're trading where we were all thru the month of december basically before public announcement of Sanofi exiting partnership?
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Post by brotherm1 on Apr 27, 2016 17:38:41 GMT -5
I don't think I am clear on what you said. Are you saying after hearing the conference call that you are thinking the market for Afrezza is smaller than what you thought prior to the call? Would you be able to estimate what proportion of the insulin market Afrezza could possibly capture?
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Post by peppy on Apr 27, 2016 18:01:09 GMT -5
I don't think I am clear on what you said. Are you saying after hearing the conference call that you are thinking the market for Afrezza is smaller than what you thought prior to the call? Would you be able to estimate what proportion of the insulin market Afrezza could possibly capture? Approximately 1.25 million American children and adults have type 1 diabetes. I figure half of them may consider changing.
Type 2 market is: people already on basal and are adding insulin intensification. no clue as to the number of type two's that fit that bill, although there are a couple on the board.
In 2012, 29.1 million Americans, or 9.3% of the population, had diabetes. 318 million people times .09 = 28.6 million - 1.25 million = 27.35 million type 2's how many are up to insulin intensification?
the guidelines www.ndei.org/AACE-guidelines-diabetes-treatment-algorithm.aspx
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Post by prvs on Apr 27, 2016 18:48:15 GMT -5
I listened to the call, replaying it until I got the information as presented. Here are some items I thought were very important in the short term:
Even though Endos prescribed 40% of the TXs, they were a "secondary" focus to primary care physicians who treated T2 diabetics, by the SNY sales force. Endos are 2X more likely to be early adopters of new medications, have more experience working through prior authorization, and have a staff available to teach dose titration
My conclusion: SNY blew off T1s and concentrated their sales efforts on primary care physicians who were less willing to adopt new medications, teach titration, or conduct spirometry tests.
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