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Post by greg on May 9, 2016 22:17:21 GMT -5
Well, you're obviously a much smarter person than I am. I'm not very good at deciphering pauses. Every person on this message board caught the stutter/pause at the financing portion. It was painfully long. You're kidding yourself if you don't think he didn't know he was going to hit the dilute button and chickened out until the call ended. this is tiring and truly pointless but what was the bait? and what did he switch to? anyway, i think i'll go and hang myself. |
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Post by slapshot on May 9, 2016 22:21:17 GMT -5
Well, you're obviously a much smarter person than I am. I'm not very good at deciphering pauses. Every person on this message board caught the stutter/pause at the financing portion. It was painfully long. You're kidding yourself if you don't think he didn't know he was going to hit the dilute button and chickened out until the call ended. Maybe you are right... maybe Matt should have just said: "Well, since plan A failed i'm getting ready to implement plan B, hopefully the plan B parties aren't listening so they don't realize the dire straights we are in and i can still pull off a reasonable deal with them. Wish me luck." |
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Post by patten1962 on May 9, 2016 23:53:28 GMT -5
Unfortunately it is all about results and Matt doesn't have any. The best intentions in the world don't matter. This is a sad story and getting sadder. I would like to believe in the company but I have lost faith. I do believe in the science however and wish it were in the hands of a company that could capitalize on it. I'm not judging you - in fact, I generally find your posts to be relatively pragmatic - but would merely like to point out that faith is the belief in something that has no tangible proof.
Nurse educators out there by the end of this month. Sales reps hitting the high-patient clinical targets by the end of June... I have no proof that what CEO Pfeffer and CCO Castagna are planning will happen. It is an act of faith on my part to believe that Matt & Co. will deliver the sales results that I believe are the key to this investment becoming a successful one for me.
For whatever my opinion is worth...  
Mn, I am also bummed out by the sp. With that said and with the understanding my knowledge about the stock market is not as great as some people here. I thought Matt did what he must to keep the company moving forward. MannKind looks to me, to be a better buy then it was in January 2016! It was said before, why would Mike leave Amgen and 70 other people leave jobs for a company that was going under! Also, the institutional investor that is buying the warrants believes in MannKind. I understand people that are long time investors are bitter but Bitching out people on a message board will not get their $$$ back. |
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Post by inittowinit on May 10, 2016 0:38:44 GMT -5
I think most of us are happy to see a viable plan. The question, in my mind, is there time / money needed to execute the plan. They / we are in a serious cash bind and IMHO we need at least 12 to 18 months to prove this plan will work. Just as in the story of David vs Goliath, we need HIS grace to slay BP.
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Post by falconquest on May 10, 2016 5:33:09 GMT -5
I think most of us are happy to see a viable plan. The question, in my mind, is there time / money needed to execute the plan. They / we are in a serious cash bind and IMHO we need at least 12 to 18 months to prove this plan will work. Just as in the story of David vs Goliath, we need HIS grace to slay BP. ......and that's the point right there. They have a good plan. They have the people in place to execute the plan but they keep saying it will be Q3 before it ramps up. Cash burn is $10M/month, they have ~$27M on hand so how do we even get to the plan let alone sustain it? A great plan is one thing buit paying for it is essential! |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2016 5:53:54 GMT -5
I think most of us are happy to see a viable plan. The question, in my mind, is there time / money needed to execute the plan. They / we are in a serious cash bind and IMHO we need at least 12 to 18 months to prove this plan will work. Just as in the story of David vs Goliath, we need HIS grace to slay BP. ......and that's the point right there. They have a good plan. They have the people in place to execute the plan but they keep saying it will be Q3 before it ramps up. Cash burn is $10M/month, they have ~$27M on hand so how do we even get to the plan let alone sustain it? A great plan is one thing buit paying for it is essential! We will know soon enough. Proceeds in Mankind's pocket from the raise announced yesterday will be $47.5 mm If all we have is this + the $30mm from The Mann Group, then we have to run with the $77.5 mm starting week of April 11th. With all the new hires and more to come, burn is going up from $10 to $12 and as of close of business May 31st we could have $55 left leaving us with enough cash to get us to around middle of October. Without the $30 from The Mann Group, a lot more precarious. Only raising $47.5 to me means they will close a deal or two shortly. The raise is interim financing. If Matt has misrepresented a potential deal or two (I do not believe he has) and nothing else in the pipeline, then it is just a matter of time but again, I do not believe that to be the case. My guess is an attorney was seated next to Matt during yesterdays call and told him to zip it. Any comments on Sanofi supposedly being required to buy back $50mm of insulin from Mannkind? |
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Post by nadathing on May 10, 2016 6:30:44 GMT -5
I am disappointed with the dilution, but not surprised by it. Matt was dealt an incredibly tough hand at the beginning of the year. It is easy to criticize him, but I am thankful he is willing to dig in and try to do the job that needs to be done.
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Post by matt on May 10, 2016 7:07:07 GMT -5
......and that's the point right there. They have a good plan. They have the people in place to execute the plan but they keep saying it will be Q3 before it ramps up. Cash burn is $10M/month, they have ~$27M on hand so how do we even get to the plan let alone sustain it? A great plan is one thing buit paying for it is essential! We will know soon enough. Proceeds in Mankind's pocket from the raise announced yesterday will be $47.5 mm If all we have is this + the $30mm from The Mann Group, then we have to run with the $77.5 mm starting week of April 11th. With all the new hires and more to come, burn is going up from $10 to $12 and as of close of business May 31st we could have $55 left leaving us with enough cash to get us to around middle of October. Without the $30 from The Mann Group, a lot more precarious. Only raising $47.5 to me means they will close a deal or two shortly. The raise is interim financing. If Matt has misrepresented a potential deal or two (I do not believe he has) and nothing else in the pipeline, then it is just a matter of time but again, I do not believe that to be the case. My guess is an attorney was seated next to Matt during yesterdays call and told him to zip it. Any comments on Sanofi supposedly being required to buy back $50mm of insulin from Mannkind? I think the reason the raise was the size it was is because the company is out of authorized shares; that is why an increase is on the agenda at the shareholder's meeting. Your math is in the ballpark but they can't close on another raise until they have more legal shares to sell and, at this moment, they do not. Frankly I am surprised the terms were as good as they were; I would have forecast a slightly bigger discount even with 100% warrant coverage.
As for the buyback of insulin, I think that is quid pro quo for the purchasing agreement that they entered into to assure Sanofi that they would have enough Afrezza to sell. Since Sanofi uses a lot of insulin in their products, changing the supplier of an active pharmaceutical ingredient is probably not a big deal for them and it gets MNKD out of a "take or pay" requirements contract.
As for Matt, who knows what the pregnant pause during the conference was all about. Maybe they had a buyer lined up at a different price, but that buyer changed the terms half-way through the call (that kind of brinksmanship happens all the time) and Matt had to scramble to save the deal. We may never know all the facts, but the company was certainly headed for BK court without a cash infusion. Matt did what he had to do to keep the company viable for four more months regardless of how painful it was, and he is going to use up most of the 150 million in newly requested shares before the company can turn the corner. Either vote your proxies for the new shares, or exit the investment at this time. The company may or may not get fixed, but the only thing that can happen quickly is failure.
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Post by factspls88 on May 10, 2016 7:31:14 GMT -5
While I think it is laudable for some to be supportive of Matt, claiming that he was dealt a bad hand, but I think it's important as an investor to try to be more objective in assessing a company's leadership. In my opinion Matt was not dealt a bad hand until Sanofi bailed. Up to that point Matt was dealt nothing - he was part of the leadership team from the get go. Importantly:
He was part of the team that chose Sanofi as a partner.
He was part of the team that accepted the unfavorable deal terms of 35/65 that basically ceded all decision making power to Sanofi.
He was part of the team whose voice meant nothing despite the god awful advertising.
He was part of the team whose voice was ignored with respect to pricing (way to high)
He was part of the team that watched helplessly as Sanofi put its resources behind Toujeo to the detriment of Afrezza.
He was part of the team that made the multi-year deal with Amphastar that has left us with a multi-year obligation for unneeded insulin.
Yes, Matt is doing what he can to save this company, but let's not lose sight of the big picture. That 35/65 deal was a killer, but many of us, including myself, had faith the Sanofi would act in Afrezza's best interest. I've learned an important lesson which is not to project ones own good motivations or intentions on a party that may have other thoughts in mind (like destroying a potential competitor). I am still long since I've got little left to lose but I am not a happy camper.
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Post by agedhippie on May 10, 2016 7:51:52 GMT -5
......and that's the point right there. They have a good plan. They have the people in place to execute the plan but they keep saying it will be Q3 before it ramps up. Cash burn is $10M/month, they have ~$27M on hand so how do we even get to the plan let alone sustain it? A great plan is one thing buit paying for it is essential! Any comments on Sanofi supposedly being required to buy back $50mm of insulin from Mannkind? Mannkind has an commitment with Amphastar to buy insulin in installments over the next two and a half years. The Mannkind Sanofi Supply agreement says that in the event of an early termination Mannkind can, as it falls due, resell up to 65% of that insulin commitment to Sanofi subject to a cap of $50M total. This limits Mannkind's liability, but it is not a revenue stream. |
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Post by kippyt on May 10, 2016 7:53:11 GMT -5
As a large holder since early 2011, I have seen my share of dilution and understood the timing and need for most of it. However, since the botched handling of the convert (which I believe was handled very poorly), I don't understand why this management team always seems to be expecting some kind of monetary inflow and then after it doesn't come to fruition, dilutes at a significantly lower price like the TASE offering or agrees to some other less shareholder friendly arrangement. I questioned why they didn't address the converts when the stock price was at a materially higher price... if you know you need cash to retire debt, might have been better to have just issued stock vs waiting for some kind of cash infusion that never happened. Also I don't understand why there wasn't some break up fee agreed upon with Sanofi at the commencement of the partnership, and why we are now living on a prayer that some money comes in, which seems a bit of a stretch based off the agreement they made. Sorry to vent just a tired frustrated investor who is dismayed that we are where we are at this time!!!
I will say in their defense that I have no idea what is going on behind closed doors... just feel like always best to come to the table from a position of balance sheet strength and I feel that the company has had opportunities to issue stock at higher prices, but waiting on some deal has hurt us significantly
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Post by oldfishtowner on May 10, 2016 8:57:26 GMT -5
Every person on this message board caught the stutter/pause at the financing portion. It was painfully long. You're kidding yourself if you don't think he didn't know he was going to hit the dilute button and chickened out until the call ended. this is tiring and truly pointless but what was the bait? and what did he switch to? anyway, i think i'll go and hang myself. Matt was definitely not as confident this CC as he was in the last one. The 8-k SEC filing released this morning states that MNKD did not contract with Wainwright until the day before the CC - a Sunday no less. So it seems to me at least that Matt was indeed expecting to close a partnership deal before the CC, even though likely at the last minute. When it wasn't finalized in time, they hastily did the offering. If the offering agreement had not been signed before the CC, there is no way that Matt would say anything about either the status of the partnership agreement or the equity offering and jeopardize the the ongoing negotiations. If the partnership agreement was indeed that close to happening and didn't completely fall through, there could be another announcement soon. It could have been a lot worse. We could be sitting here today with no money in the bank and no partnership and have to do an equity offering next week or the week after at 50 cents or 25 cents. We may not like it, but MNKD has been in a difficult place since the two FDA CRLs. MNKD has been in a difficult bargaining position all along. Only because of Al's financial assistance has this company survived. Not knowing what Matt's position was on the SNY partnership, it is difficult to blame him for what followed. He may have had a say, but he was not in charge at the time. Still, personally, I thought SNY was as good a choice as MNKD could have had. I have seen what happens to a start-up in the diabetes space when they partner with LLY - not any better than MNKD fared with SNY, maybe worse. And there is no way I would have wished for Novo. So who was left with any major muscle in the space? Besides, there are few big pharmas that give small biotechs an even shake, especially when their finances are weak. What's behind us is done. We can't change that. We can only look forward. It is for each of us to decide whether to sell, hold or increase our holdings. I am in the camp that likes Matt and Mike's marketing plan. They certainly can't do any worse than SNY. Anything better will help the PPS. My dilemma is whether to sit on what I have or to buy more and how much. |
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Post by silentknight on May 10, 2016 9:10:29 GMT -5
I've intentionally taken some time off from this board and have put forth great effort to try and worry about my MNKD investment less. That being said, as others have mentioned, I found the recent dilution to be much ado about nothing. Everyone knows the company needs money. And everyone also knows that given the current state of affairs, a partnership with large up-front money was a pipe dream. While dilution would have been my least preferable method of raising capital, I'm relieved (temporarily) that there is at least a six month extension of MNKD's runway to see if they can achieve success with their marketing efforts.
Matt's been dealt a pretty crappy hand, and I feel like he's done the best he could with what he has. It's not where I'd like to be, but investors expecting an overnight turn around where Afrezza scripts take off and the company is suddenly flush with cash and new partnerships needs a reality check. This will be a slow, arduous grind and will likely require years before we see significant returns on our investment. If you don't have the stomach for that, get out. But blaming the company for raising the capital to stave off bankruptcy is extremely shortsighted. Yes, he should have mentioned it in the call, but he didn't. I don't expect it would have made much difference. The share price was going to take a haircut either way.
With the team they have in place and the strategy they have identified, progress is achievable. I put in a buy order today for another few thousand shares. I'm hoping that my decisions to buy shares today for around a buck apiece will pay dividends for me in the future. If not, as I've said before, I'm willing to lose it all. The science and the product is solid. Management now has the cash and opportunity to make it work.
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Post by smwill77 on May 10, 2016 9:36:01 GMT -5
Those of you who are going easy on Matt really are pathetic. If someone called your mother a name would you respond and say it was probably justified and simply couldn't come up with a nicer name as well? Come on!!! Yes, he absolutely should have mentioned this on the call yesterday! Taking it one step further, he should have mentioned it BEFORE the earnings call either via it's own need for a conference call. Instead, we have them telling us on facebook not to take the shelf filing as any signal whatsoever of pending dilution, or Matt telling us during the commercialization call the other week to "stay tuned" for the 5/9 earnings call where "all our answers will be answered". True, the share price would have taken a hit regardless, but the way it was delivered yesterday was a punch to the stomach while we were already on the ground and trying to understand why very little financial information was communicated an hour before, and with constant responses from the company saying not to expect anything to the sort. Matt is a crook! Just because Al Mann put him in that position and because he happens to the be CEO of a drug that could potentially help millions upon millions of diabetics worldwide does not make him an angel. He's a crook, and while he was dealt a bad hand from Hakan, doesn't give him a free pass to continually lie, to make stupid moves, to do what he's doing. Wake up people!
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Post by sccrbrg on May 10, 2016 9:46:17 GMT -5
Those of you who are going easy on Matt really are pathetic. If someone called your mother a name would you respond and say it was probably justified and simply couldn't come up with a nicer name as well? Come on!!! Yes, he absolutely should have mentioned this on the call yesterday! Taking it one step further, he should have mentioned it BEFORE the earnings call either via it's own need for a conference call. Instead, we have them telling us on facebook not to take the shelf filing as any signal whatsoever of pending dilution, or Matt telling us during the commercialization call the other week to "stay tuned" for the 5/9 earnings call where "all our answers will be answered". True, the share price would have taken a hit regardless, but the way it was delivered yesterday was a punch to the stomach while we were already on the ground and trying to understand why very little financial information was communicated an hour before, and with constant responses from the company saying not to expect anything to the sort. Matt is a crook! Just because Al Mann put him in that position and because he happens to the be CEO of a drug that could potentially help millions upon millions of diabetics worldwide does not make him an angel. He's a crook, and while he was dealt a bad hand from Hakan, doesn't give him a free pass to continually lie, to make stupid moves, to do what he's doing. Wake up people! Nail on the head. Dilution was expected but that was a shameful way to go about it. |
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