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Post by sccrbrg on May 11, 2016 19:44:12 GMT -5
Will we ever see $4.00 again?
I would imagine most of us are so far under water that it's pointless to consider selling at these levels. But I'm beginning to lose hope of ever getting out of this with even 50% of my original investment.
It would be nice if Matt had a few deals to announce tomorrow on the CC to at least get us back over the $1 mark.
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Post by factspls88 on May 11, 2016 20:02:09 GMT -5
Will we ever see $4.00 again?
I would imagine most of us are so far under water that it's pointless to consider selling at these levels. But I'm beginning to lose hope of ever getting out of this with even 50% of my original investment. It would be nice if Matt had a few deals to announce tomorrow on the CC to at least get us back over the $1 mark. Yes, if you are able to sell your 4.5 shares at today's closing price.
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Post by mbseeking on May 13, 2016 19:09:23 GMT -5
Great question to ponder.
Things are certainly pretty desperate. My main hypothesis on MNKD at the moment is that ‘where there is life, there is hope’. Not a very strong hypothesis. But that hope springs from Afrezza appearing to be such a wonderful diabetes solution and the potential to be able to deliver so many drugs without injection.
My other hypothesis is that for Afrezza to take off, it has to be on as many plans unrestricted as its competitors and priced to the PBMs similarly. That took a hit at the CC with Castagna talking about 70% of PAs being approved and plans likely locked for 2016. That tells me we are unlikely to see any real movement on the plan coverage until next year.
The $50M capital raise last week will only get MNKD 6 months, at best, into the future, not 2017. So there is a gap there. They will need to raise more before 2017, and probably at least twice. It would be very nice if the share price was higher than now when that happens.
If the 2016 plan lockout is a real thing, then even as sales team comes on there wont be a huge movement in scripts till 2017 (by my hypotheses). Though a more energetic team could still do better than SNY. If they achieve better scripts in 2016 (say 3Q) , that would be the catalyst for a nice SP increase and timed well for another capital raise. Additionally we have to suspect that there is one deal in the pipeline for the next 6 months that will seem attractive enough to move the SP up. Again enough to make another capital raise less painful and get us to 2017 land.
If MNKD survives, the SP could certainly still double or triple in the next 3 years. In my case that would be sufficient to recover much of my losses. That's my horizon. I'm leaning in. :-)
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Post by therealisaching on May 13, 2016 19:33:00 GMT -5
The plans Mike C mentioned as being locked were Medicare Part D plans. So not the entire universe of health plans
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Post by trondisc on May 13, 2016 23:52:14 GMT -5
$4.00?!? Maybe like in 4 years ;( I'm Long, Uncalm and don't trust Matt Pfeffer or any of upper management period. Technosphere is a golden opportunity to advance modern medicine and they are squandering it.
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Post by gamblerjag on May 13, 2016 23:54:48 GMT -5
good message.. but if I'm reading this right. (good chance I'm not)... to think MNKD could double or triple in 3 years is just ridiculous.. hell we went from ..70 to 2 bucks in a few weeks in March.. It can triple from here in 5-7 days on good news. Just based on if things go well.. not spectacular.. this stock will be 5-8 bucks in the next year.
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Post by morfu on May 14, 2016 10:31:41 GMT -5
Will we ever see $4.00 again? I would imagine most of us are so far under water that it's pointless to consider selling at these levels. But I'm beginning to lose hope of ever getting out of this with even 50% of my original investment. It would be nice if Matt had a few deals to announce tomorrow on the CC to at least get us back over the $1 mark. >> I would imagine most of us are so far under water that it's pointless to consider selling at these levels. I dont know actually.. Every month I reduce my cost level by 3-5% thanks to the generous support of shorts via lending payments! Since I get these shares basically for about 0.6-1.8$ over the last months, my cost per share is reducing and the numbers of shares increasing.. this 10 or 20% dilution is a 5month setback for me nothing more. If Mannkind survives I will make good money.. In the meantime I can use other money to buy in more if the price goes down further.. this monkey business will cost the shorts a lot of money in the long run. The real question is, why would anybody thinking about selling at this time after holding on to this share so long!? Nothing has changed really.. Mannkind might succeed or not.. in my opinion just as likely as any time during the last two years! My estimate: If Afrezza ever gets 1million permanent users, we will make 1$ profit per share, we are in the region of 1-2% of that..
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Post by pengiep on May 14, 2016 10:51:19 GMT -5
This issue now is truly the apparently desperate cash situation. Were that to be significantly better I would have no problem adding. However I'm holding and will ride this into the ground- as appears to be happening.
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Post by bradleysbest on May 14, 2016 11:54:34 GMT -5
Cash is the reason. In hindsight MNKD should have went alone after FDA approval. They would have had the cash to get Afrezza off & running.
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Post by morfu on May 14, 2016 14:49:19 GMT -5
Cash is the reason. In hindsight MNKD should have went alone after FDA approval. They would have had the cash to get Afrezza off & running. I am not sure if I can agree with that.. Sanofi put quite a bit of money on the table.. Assuming this 2nd round has a bigger success, who can tell that this isnt the result of the previous effort and no one would have gotten it flying faster!? Sanofi did Afrezza a good service by keeping it alive for that time
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Post by bradleysbest on May 14, 2016 15:19:20 GMT -5
MNKD would have had the cash & right intentions. SNY did not have Afrezza's or MNKD's best interest in the partnership.
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Post by mnkdfann on May 14, 2016 15:30:17 GMT -5
MNKD would have had the cash & right intentions. SNY did not have Afrezza's or MNKD's best interest in the partnership. What you say (at least the part about the cash) sounds like a bit of revisionist history to me, but what do I know. www.fiercepharma.com/financials/sanofi-and-mannkind-hatch-plan-to-boost-margins-on-afrezza"MannKind ($MNKD) has been starved for cash, so it was huge for the California-based pharma to strike a deal with Big Pharma player Sanofi ($SNY) to help market its inhaled insulin Afrezza."
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Post by bradleysbest on May 14, 2016 15:33:45 GMT -5
SNY had the cash , name & sales team. Look where that got us! MNKD owns blame too but like I said hindsight is 20/20. Castagna will, hopefully, get this going.
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Post by peppy on May 14, 2016 17:04:20 GMT -5
Will we ever see $4.00 again? I would imagine most of us are so far under water that it's pointless to consider selling at these levels. But I'm beginning to lose hope of ever getting out of this with even 50% of my original investment. It would be nice if Matt had a few deals to announce tomorrow on the CC to at least get us back over the $1 mark. higher low stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MNKD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25108926327
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Post by mbseeking on May 14, 2016 23:44:27 GMT -5
This is the one post currently I cant get out my head.. scrrbag "I would imagine most of us are so far under water that it's pointless to consider selling at these levels. But I'm beginning to lose hope... ''' Actually my predicament may be much worse...I'm starting to rebuild hope. Again. How can that be after so many ups and downs and loss. I really like what Castagna is doing : better demo packs... and new titration pack.. nurse educators - how smart is that bypass endos and pcps completely and connect with the people who connect with the patients. Think about it: Endo. “ You have diabetes , and need to go on insulin" Patient: “Oh..I’ve heard about Afrezza, I can puff it rather than inject it” Endo. “Yes,and its much easier now.. your plan may cover it immediately or there is a simple PA we need to do. Hang on tick , we will do a simple spiro test to confirm you can use it, and if so you are on your way. Patient: “ !!!” Endo: “Yep. if spiro checks.. out , I’ll give you an overview on the titration process , a titration pack , sample pack till your script starts , and then pass you to your nurse who will work with you to settle your dosage titration over the next couple of weeks. Done.” Endo: "Next (Afrezza) patient please!" ****** 1 x Castagna transaction closed. For me the real question right now isnt should I be waiting to sell..but should I be finding more money to put in? I hope they can come up with a TS application for my condition. Maybe nembutal?
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