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Post by mannmade on Aug 26, 2016 14:26:46 GMT -5
Back on July 15th I started this thread and thought it might be time for me to personally revisit the comments. I don't know if it will play out the way I described in the initial post, but given what is going on at the moment with MannKind it sure feels like it is doing just that. I am taking the time to write this current comment not to say I was right at all... because a.) it is really too early to say that... and b.) it's not about that at all! It's about being part of a collective conversation on this board and a shared experience. An experience that is very tough on all of us no matter our experience as an investor, past success', financial status or ability to control our emotions... So what I want to say with the reposting of this thread is to remind people that we are still in the early part of the MannKind 2.0 and think imo that we still have about 3 weeks or more until we can begin to understand the future with a bit more clarity... Until then... As the American History buffs on the board know from the quotes underneath my avatar... Now is not the time to panic nor the time to give up...
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 26, 2016 16:15:15 GMT -5
Today is 07.15.16 and we are exactly two weeks into the launch of MannKind 2.0... and the price seems to have been walked down during the past two weeks (on 07.01.16 we closed at $1.22) to a low of .99 as of today... So far... So I started to think about what I/We as investors should expect during the next 5 1/2 months which seems to be the time period we have with current cash reserves to quote "Make or Break" MannKind... Now I am not a technical not fundamental investor. I do my own DD and all my opinions are personal but thought I might share some thoughts today... We all know the possible events that could occur between now and the end of the year to turn MannKind around: Sanofi Settlement, with cash and release of all debt TS Partnership Announcement AFREZZA Distribution Partnership RLS Milestone Payment (if Significant) Distribution in Another Country Increase in AFREZZA Scripts and Renewals However, of the above, it currently seems that MannKind's stock price is most likely to be measured in terms of AFREZZA TRx and NRx as the others are all pure speculation until something concrete is announced. So we are back to a weekly waiting game to see what the numbers are each Friday. And given that the sales force has just hit the bricks, that the new sample packs are not yet distributed and when they are they will now last a bit longer, new SKU's will take time to integrate into inventory, I am of the opinion that we may not see nor expect any positive sales lift until end of August 2016 if not a bit later. We may see in the interim slight increases from doctors who now realize AFREZZA is not going away and are willing to re-engage in writing prescriptions, but we must remember they are not the ones who will help drive sales as they had previously been writing scripts and included in past totals. It's the new doctors that we need to get on board... So between now and say mid-September I/we really should have no expectations as longs. However, imho this will be exactly the time for the shorts to make their "last hurrah." Witness the beginning of this with today's low of .99 pps as of this writing. The shorts prey on uncertainty and no news and so for the next 6 to 8 weeks this will be their moment in time to make noise especially as the focus is now back on weekly scripts and cash on hand. If you believe that Matt, Mike, et al... will be able to get the script lift we need, (exactly what that is I do not know and is a different conversation. But for my purposes, I would be happy with 1,000 to 2,000 TRx per week by the end of the year. I realize this is not break even by a long shot but it reduces negative cash flow and shows a trend towards positive cash flow that can be projected and give the stock a look forward revenue stream that will be factored into the pps.) So with 1,000 to 2,000 scripts per week (assuming appropriate retention etc...) we now as discussed have a theoretically higher stock price with forward earnings factored to a degree. This will allow for a better opportunity to finance and issue more shares. Let's say for purposes of this discussion, the scripts hit 1,000 per week by October 2016. And with that the pps is now at $2.00 per share. (Both script numbers and share price are pure speculation on my part for purposes of this conversation) Now Mnkd can issue 50m additional shares and raise $100m which is another full year of operating revenue. (And yes I am aware of the warrants at $1.50 would have most likely been exercised on the way up adding more revenue to the Mnkd coffers and also outstanding shares which is why I chose a very low stock price at which to issue additional shares) Under this scenario, MannKind is now increasing scripts and has taken cash off the table as an issue and therefor imho the dilution should not have as severe a negative impact on the then current stock price. And this takes me back to my original thought... Is this the last hurrah for the shorts? I do not believe there will be a short squeeze of any real significance but I do think we may start to see a draw down of short interest come September/October if the above scenario plays out and therefore perhaps we are beginning to hit a true bottom... I wish all longs good luck and good fortune with the toast of "Bottoms Up!!!" Great call! Well worth a revisit.
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Post by gamblerjag on Aug 26, 2016 17:24:46 GMT -5
That post made sense then and still does 6 weeks later.. I myself had October as the date of seeing the big increase not because Mike mentioned it but because things rarely go according to ones hope/plan plus the fact of all the different players in getting prescription filled.. including patient making a Dr. appointment, spiro test, written prescripton and prescrption filled. Sure we would have liked 2 weeks in to see 500 new script but that was being hopeful not realistic. I will give this to the end of the year. Yes I'm marking my calendar to see much higher scripts than SNY.. if not much higher I give it a 70 % chance of saying goodbye. noticed I didn't say 100%... since I like gambling
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Post by mannmade on Aug 26, 2016 17:31:24 GMT -5
Thanks gambler, I never considered myself much of a gambler as have always thought of myself more as a person willing to take educated risks... And having done my DD on Mnkd it fit the bill for me. That was a ways back and the fact that I am still here as a dedicated long... I guess makes me a gambler and perhaps one who is a bit addicted at this point, at least to the belief that good must ultimately prevail and the science is brilliant...
Yes I do agree actually about October and personally do think Sept was a tad optimistic... Nonetheless I will be happy if we get close by the end of the year...
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Post by sophie on Aug 26, 2016 18:00:09 GMT -5
With reports of docs getting new sample packs this week, I'm not sure why anyone is buying shares this week. You both said it, there probably won't be a big shift until October. It'd also be a bad thing if we don't see spikes once October comes. The reps either aren't hungry enough (doubtful) or the system is still broken and docs either aren't prescribing or spirometry, insurance, P.As (Mannkind cares should eliminate this one). Really, with how well this engine appears to be oiled right now, the only impediment would be patients/docs. Insurance coverage is greatly improving and spirometry shouldn't be that big of a deal if the patient really wants the medication.
I want to say October will give us all the information we want to see, if not mid to late September. There should be jumps in scripts from now til then if things are going well.
I'm going to hold out until mid-late September to add more if I add at all. The shorts haven't relented yet, they won't until they have to. They're doubling down on us going bankrupt. I'll let them drive the price lower before I add more, especially if we reverse split and dilute. They'll just do it all over again until there is reason not to. It's likely I could add shares again at $2 instead of buying now and have them worth $5 or so, depending on how much we invert.
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Post by op2778 on Aug 26, 2016 19:20:27 GMT -5
I have to agree.
We are just gambling.
we cannot wait further more than October. If scripts and sales #s aren't good, this will be worst than Titanic. Why? Because we will face a diluition or a R/S with a very very low price and stock (shareholders too) will visit The abysm.
about shorts:
07/08/2016 (Was a sunday), i Was reading news and get an alert to My phone about MFRM (i had 500 shares and 5calls, Damn, just 5 unfortunately). Well, to resume, The alert Was about The Ikea of South-Africa buying MattresFirm for a premium of 105-110% vs Friday close. Stock was in a downtrend and closed at 29.90 ok Friday and They bought The company for 64usd per share.
Friday at close, someone bought puts worths 400.000 usd. Well guys, i smile because i done good money with My shares and calls at The open on Monday, August 8th, but, i can assure you, that guy that bought puts for a total value of 400k and all The shorts caught with their pants down, were not happy as i was.
why I'm telling you this? Because i prefer to be long and yes screw, but not to be short on a stock like MNKD. You never know when a news can be released (I'll Love Sunday night LOL).
Odds we can go BK 95%, but that 5% in our favor, oh boy, could be Epic.
op
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Aug 26, 2016 19:28:57 GMT -5
Wow, Op, 95% chance of bankruptcy? My thoughts were more like 10 to 20%. How do others feel about that?
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Post by nylefty on Aug 26, 2016 19:32:02 GMT -5
Wow, Op, 95% chance of bankruptcy? My thoughts were more like 10 to 20%. How do others feel about that? I'd say 10%. 95% is way too pessimistic.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 26, 2016 19:33:17 GMT -5
Please do not misconstrue my words... They were meant to be tongue in cheek as I still feel very good about the end game even if is taking a bit longer than I thought it might...
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Post by cjc04 on Aug 26, 2016 20:12:53 GMT -5
Wow, Op, 95% chance of bankruptcy? My thoughts were more like 10 to 20%. How do others feel about that? I'd say 10%. 95% is way too pessimistic. Wow!!!! This may be a good topic for debate, or a poll. I did think 95% was too extreme, but I think we're at a point where we don't know everything and were probably 50/50 at best in any scenario (yet I continue to hold and add). But "nylefty" is an opinion I pay attention to and I'm pretty surprised by your call of 10 or 20%...... As blindly optimistic as I am, I would say we're on a clear path to BK,,,,,, it's all the UNKNOWN (and some prayers) that give a chance for success.
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Aug 26, 2016 20:16:50 GMT -5
No, Mannmade, I hope that wasn't me that you thought was misconstruing your words. Your opening comments on 7/15 for this thread were truly insightful and I respect and appreciate you for sharing your thoughts with us. And I also agree that they are as insightful today as they were back then. I also believe that your opinions shared were optimistic in nature. I was strictly referring to the last sentence of op2778's comment about 95% chance of bankruptcy. But, I think (or, at least I am hoping) that those words were also meant to be tongue in cheek ;o) I welcome your wise words anytime.
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Post by mnholdem on Aug 26, 2016 20:19:13 GMT -5
With reports of docs getting new sample packs this week, I'm not sure why anyone is buying shares this week. You both said it, there probably won't be a big shift until October. It'd also be a bad thing if we don't see spikes once October comes. The reps either aren't hungry enough (doubtful) or the system is still broken and docs either aren't prescribing or spirometry, insurance, P.As (Mannkind cares should eliminate this one). Really, with how well this engine appears to be oiled right now, the only impediment would be patients/docs. Insurance coverage is greatly improving and spirometry shouldn't be that big of a deal if the patient really wants the medication. I want to say October will give us all the information we want to see, if not mid to late September. There should be jumps in scripts from now til then if things are going well. When ProBoard members (yes, you have to be a member to access the script and formulary trackers) see what I will be posting about one week from today, you will be astounded and I would not be surprised if you get a bit optimistic. The first piece of news is that, in addition to posting all five channels of formularies, I will also be posting the "Covered (PA/ST)" numbers. The vast majority of formularies, including medicare and state medicaid have restricted coverage. Most state medicaid plans have 100% Covered (PA/ST) but quite a few state medicaids are 100% covered with no restrictions for Afrezza inhaled insulin. It is my belief that after you see formularies by state, you'll see why the MannKind Cares program is vital AND why success reports by spiro and others in getting approved with MannKind Cares assistance is reason to be optimistic. Folks, I'm talking about millions of patients. The numbers that I've been posting for the Unrestricted Coverage for Afrezza within the Commercial channel is a small tip of a very large iceberg. You'll see for yourself on September 1st. That's a promise.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 26, 2016 20:23:38 GMT -5
BK is a possibility but I do not think it is imminent... We have at least one more round of financing/dilution that will likely be the next step before a bankruptcy. And likely a sale before BK, imho. As painful as dilution may be in the short term I do think if scripts go according to plan then in the LONG run longs will prevail...
So with other options still viable, BK imho is 0% for now. That could change tomorrow, but based on a "snapshot" of MannKind's current situation, I think it is more realistic than 95% by a long shot...
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Post by sophie on Aug 26, 2016 20:23:57 GMT -5
With reports of docs getting new sample packs this week, I'm not sure why anyone is buying shares this week. You both said it, there probably won't be a big shift until October. It'd also be a bad thing if we don't see spikes once October comes. The reps either aren't hungry enough (doubtful) or the system is still broken and docs either aren't prescribing or spirometry, insurance, P.As (Mannkind cares should eliminate this one). Really, with how well this engine appears to be oiled right now, the only impediment would be patients/docs. Insurance coverage is greatly improving and spirometry shouldn't be that big of a deal if the patient really wants the medication. I want to say October will give us all the information we want to see, if not mid to late September. There should be jumps in scripts from now til then if things are going well. I'm going to hold out until mid-late September to add more if I add at all. The shorts haven't relented yet, they won't until they have to. They're doubling down on us going bankrupt. I'll let them drive the price lower before I add more, especially if we reverse split and dilute. They'll just do it all over again until there is reason not to. It's likely I could add shares again at $2 instead of buying now and have them worth $5 or so, depending on how much we invert. When ProBoard members (yes, you have to be a member to access the script and formulary trackers) see what I will be posting in about one week from today, you will be astounded and I would not be surprised if you get a bit optimistic. The first piece of news is that, in addition to posting all five channels of formularies, I will also be posting the "Covered (PA/ST)" numbers. The vast majority of formularies, including medicare and state medicaid have restricted coverage. Most state medicaid plans have 100% Covered (PA/ST) but quite a few state medicaids are 100% covered with no restrictions. It is my belief that after you see formularies by state, you'll see why the MannKind Cares program is vital AND why success reports by spiro and others in getting approved with MannKind Cares assistance is reason to be optimistic. Folks, I'm talking about millions of patients. The numbers that I've been posting for the Unrestricted Coverage for Afrezza within the Commercial channel is a small tip of a very large iceberg. Great news. I can't wait to see the update. Let's hope that translates directly into increased sales. Might be able to afford some bbq sauce to put on the fried shorts this Christmas after all.
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Post by mannmade on Aug 26, 2016 20:30:29 GMT -5
mnkdismyretirmntplan, not you at all... was referring to Op 2778. Call my investment what you like... but I still call it a very educated and calculated risk decision based on the upside potential. No pain/no gain... and ty for your kind words...
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