Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 10:03:26 GMT -5
No. Cash flow will worsen as a result of MNKD getting 100% of Afrezza. Do not confuse cash flow with earnings. During the partnership MNKD charged its share of losses on Afrezza to the SNY loan facility and those losses did not affect cash flow. Now that the partnership has been dissolved, that loan facility is no longer available to MNKD, unless there is something we haven't been told. Thus, losses on Afrezza - 100% of losses, not just 35% - will impact cash flow. Until sales and margins improve enough to offset this, cash flow will be worse, not better as a result of the breakup. I think the "improved cash flow" refers to the cash received from the equity offering. I would go as far as saying that 100% of MNKD's losses on going at it alone will be less than 35% of the losses it booked with SNY. SNY is big and inefficient (and crooks from my personal opinion) and MNKD is or better be lean and mean. I've worked in lean and mean situations and it's pretty spectacular what can get done. I've also worked in fat and slow big corporate situations where things can get done, it just takes 2 to 3 times the time and people. We will certainly find out at the next earnings call.
|
|
|
Post by sweedee79 on Jul 21, 2016 10:41:12 GMT -5
Thanks for that perspective sweedee. I'm an investor and while I do not bank billions I have banked millions on my investments over the years. Your sentiment comes from the hope of a promising product. My view comes from the hope of a successful investment. While they sound like they should be the same, thats not always the case. With mnkd, so far thats proving to be true. So thank you for not taking my commentary as a personal assault. Its not personal to me. My investments are widgets to be understood and mastered. With that lens, its simple math to me and has served me well over the years. Best of luck to you and all diabetics benefiting from agrezza. Inhaled insulin sure beats injections and I'm always glad to hear success stories from patients. But mnkd must translate that into a successful commercial operation and so far......well, you know the story. This is an investment for me as well... its not all about my "emotions" and the "hope" for a promising product... tho it does sadden me that this hasn't been properly made available to people who really could benefit. There are many very intelligent and successful investors in this company that don't have your point of view. The "math" sometimes is hard to predict in these situations... and no one including you knew what SNY was doing... we were told it was a soft launch... Not everything you say rings true ...
|
|
|
Post by oldfishtowner on Jul 21, 2016 12:00:40 GMT -5
No. Cash flow will worsen as a result of MNKD getting 100% of Afrezza. Do not confuse cash flow with earnings. During the partnership MNKD charged its share of losses on Afrezza to the SNY loan facility and those losses did not affect cash flow. Now that the partnership has been dissolved, that loan facility is no longer available to MNKD, unless there is something we haven't been told. Thus, losses on Afrezza - 100% of losses, not just 35% - will impact cash flow. Until sales and margins improve enough to offset this, cash flow will be worse, not better as a result of the breakup. I think the "improved cash flow" refers to the cash received from the equity offering. I would go as far as saying that 100% of MNKD's losses on going at it alone will be less than 35% of the losses it booked with SNY. SNY is big and inefficient (and crooks from my personal opinion) and MNKD is or better be lean and mean. I've worked in lean and mean situations and it's pretty spectacular what can get done. I've also worked in fat and slow big corporate situations where things can get done, it just takes 2 to 3 times the time and people. You missed my point. It is not the 35% of losses vs 100% of losses, but the fact that the SNY loan facility can't be used to offset losses from Afrezza activities that impscts cash flow - negatively. The 35% did not affect cash at all before the breakup because it simply was charged against the loan facility. Until Afrezza at least breaks even, losses from Afrezza - whether they are 100% or 1% of the losses SNY generated - will negatively impact cash flow, which was not the case when the SNY loan facility was available. So getting back 100% of Afrezza could not have possibly improved cash flow yet. On the other hand, the measures MNKD has taken to reduce expenses have improved cash flow; but I don't consider those alone enough to merit an outperform rating for the stock. The only other recent contribution to improved cash flow that I am aware of is the equity offering, which is why I suggested it. It was significant in that it generated enough cash to allow the company a chance to survive. And when MNKD's survival becomes clear, it will certainly be worth much more than $1/share. A good enough rationale for an outperform.
|
|
|
Post by lakon on Jul 21, 2016 13:35:22 GMT -5
I would go as far as saying that 100% of MNKD's losses on going at it alone will be less than 35% of the losses it booked with SNY. SNY is big and inefficient (and crooks from my personal opinion) and MNKD is or better be lean and mean. I've worked in lean and mean situations and it's pretty spectacular what can get done. I've also worked in fat and slow big corporate situations where things can get done, it just takes 2 to 3 times the time and people. You missed my point. It is not the 35% of losses vs 100% of losses, but the fact that the SNY loan facility can't be used to offset losses from Afrezza activities that impscts cash flow - negatively. The 35% did not affect cash at all before the breakup because it simply was charged against the loan facility. Until Afrezza at least breaks even, losses from Afrezza - whether they are 100% or 1% of the losses SNY generated - will negatively impact cash flow, which was not the case when the SNY loan facility was available. So getting back 100% of Afrezza could not have possibly improved cash flow yet. On the other hand, the measures MNKD has taken to reduce expenses have improved cash flow; but I don't consider those alone enough to merit an outperform rating for the stock. The only other recent contribution to improved cash flow that I am aware of is the equity offering, which is why I suggested it. It was significant in that it generated enough cash to allow the company a chance to survive. And when MNKD's survival becomes clear, it will certainly be worth much more than $1/share. A good enough rationale for an outperform. How much has SNY been spending on commercialization since giving the notice of termination? How much before termination? How much revenue was going into the Partnership? How much revenue was going into MNKD during the Partnership? How much has commercialization increased costs at MNKD in light of other cost savings? When are the bills due?
|
|
|
Post by matt on Jul 21, 2016 13:51:39 GMT -5
We will certainly find out at the next earnings call. I wish that was the case. As it is, the next earnings call will be for period ending June 30 when Sanofi was still part of the equation and the loan facility was still intact. For most of that period, MNKD had no sales force or serious marketing efforts since those kicked in rather late in the period. Q3 will be a different story with essentially 100% of the expense and cash flow hitting MNKD's books directly, but that accounting period doesn't end until September 30 and the 10Q is not due out until the middle of November. That is a long time to wait for credible numbers, and I don't think we know enough to reasonably estimate the full P&L with only weekly script numbers to go by, especially due to the heavy sampling that will take place on the relaunch. The price is going to move, big time, on November 10 but it is hard to guess on the direction. Right now an option straddle will cost 43 cents, but that may look like a sweet deal on Nov 11.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 14:22:40 GMT -5
We will certainly find out at the next earnings call. I wish that was the case. As it is, the next earnings call will be for period ending June 30 when Sanofi was still part of the equation and the loan facility was still intact. For most of that period, MNKD had no sales force or serious marketing efforts since those kicked in rather late in the period. Q3 will be a different story with essentially 100% of the expense and cash flow hitting MNKD's books directly, but that accounting period doesn't end until September 30 and the 10Q is not due out until the middle of November. That is a long time to wait for credible numbers, and I don't think we know enough to reasonably estimate the full P&L with only weekly script numbers to go by, especially due to the heavy sampling that will take place on the relaunch. The price is going to move, big time, on November 10 but it is hard to guess on the direction. Right now an option straddle will cost 43 cents, but that may look like a sweet deal on Nov 11. Thanks for this information and how they can use the term to shield the truth a bit. I currently do not own any shares. I went heavy after the offering and sold all of them over the past few weeks. I expect some pretty volatile moves in the coming months especially if the Mann Foundation even sniffs that they are going under.
|
|
|
Post by kbrion77 on Jul 21, 2016 14:52:54 GMT -5
I wish that was the case. As it is, the next earnings call will be for period ending June 30 when Sanofi was still part of the equation and the loan facility was still intact. For most of that period, MNKD had no sales force or serious marketing efforts since those kicked in rather late in the period. Q3 will be a different story with essentially 100% of the expense and cash flow hitting MNKD's books directly, but that accounting period doesn't end until September 30 and the 10Q is not due out until the middle of November. That is a long time to wait for credible numbers, and I don't think we know enough to reasonably estimate the full P&L with only weekly script numbers to go by, especially due to the heavy sampling that will take place on the relaunch. The price is going to move, big time, on November 10 but it is hard to guess on the direction. Right now an option straddle will cost 43 cents, but that may look like a sweet deal on Nov 11. Thanks for this information and how they can use the term to shield the truth a bit. I currently do not own any shares. I went heavy after the offering and sold all of them over the past few weeks. I expect some pretty volatile moves in the coming months especially if the Mann Foundation even sniffs that they are going under. I don't really look too much into the day to day stuff anymore with this stock since I've been wrong on almost everything I projected for it but I do like to keep a close eye on the WhaleWisdom site. Equitec Proprietary Markets might think something is going to happen because I think they have added a bit to their position and if you look at their holdings a ton of them were or are in the process of acquisitions. Something is definitely going to happen the next couple months either good or bad. I closed out of my brokerage position but still hold in Trad and Roth for a miracle.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2016 16:18:07 GMT -5
Thanks for this information and how they can use the term to shield the truth a bit. I currently do not own any shares. I went heavy after the offering and sold all of them over the past few weeks. I expect some pretty volatile moves in the coming months especially if the Mann Foundation even sniffs that they are going under. I don't really look too much into the day to day stuff anymore with this stock since I've been wrong on almost everything I projected for it but I do like to keep a close eye on the WhaleWisdom site. Equitec Proprietary Markets might think something is going to happen because I think they have added a bit to their position and if you look at their holdings a ton of them were or are in the process of acquisitions. Something is definitely going to happen the next couple months either good or bad. I closed out of my brokerage position but still hold in Trad and Roth for a miracle. A hard lesson learned is you can come back into the fight at a lower price vs losing the money and being a "True MNKD long" lol I am not leaving any profits on the table with this company because there has not been a single reason outside of a short squeeze for the price to increase in the past 12 months. When I bought in at around .92 cents after the offering I had a strategy of how I was going to exit. The price came down real fast and I realized most of that increase was from the russell and was not leaving any profits and closed out my position. I ahve been without a doubt gambling but it ate up a lot of my losses. Losses I can now live with and a price for education on the market. I never used whale wisdom before but looking at it I am reading they own no shares and just call/put options. If you look at their AUM and then compare it to the size of their bet in MNKD it tells me it is nothing more then a lottery ticket. Yea a million is a lot to us but they manage 2.3 billion. Its like us betting ten bucks on MNKD. Its chump change.
|
|