Post by dcassidy1618a on Aug 10, 2016 22:42:35 GMT -5
Mike stated that in the first 2 weeks the reps received 300 requests for samples and left the impression that most of these were docs who had prescribed Afrezza before but stopped because they thought it would not be available after the breakup with SNY. Assume that 200 were returning docs and 100 were new.
I will be generous and take your 500 visits a week to new docs (not currently prescribing)- a larger number would lower the success rate - giving us 1000 visits in the 2 weeks. Assuming as well that all previous prescribers requested samples the success rate for visits to new docs is 100/800= 12.5% Aug through Dec= 22 weeks. 500x22=11000 visits to new docs. 11000 x 0.125 = 1375 new prescribers, including the 200 prescribers who reenlisted, that is 1575.
My recollection is that among doctors prescribing Afrezza, having 30 patients on Afrezza was a large number. According to your statistics, 50 diabetics are seen per week by each doctor, or 2,500 per year. 30/2500 = 1.2%. At the end of the year, then, the most we should expect is that 1575 doctors will be writing 1575 x 50 x 0.012 = 945 new prescriptions per week. Added to last week's TRX of 268 that gives us 1,213.
So projections for the remainder of the year, based on the early results out of the gate, even if you add say a hundred refills from prescriptions started in September, don't even get us close to 2000 scripts per week.
There are many factors that could add to the upside, including physician education activities and DTC, but the effectiveness of these is not yet known. It will be difficult to generate momentum in a few short months, and the effects of DTC won't be seen for months. So while I am somewhat optimistic for the future, I don't expect too much by the end of the year.
Still, >1000 scripts/week might be enough to push the stock to $2 or more and allow MNKD to use the ATM without too much pain for shareholders. Raising $30-50 million buys at least another quarter. With potential payee concessions expected in the new year and a possible label change, it may be a different ball game come January, when we will also have a better idea of whether or not Mike has been able to improve the patient retention rate - which would also be a boost for the stock.