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Post by matt on Aug 19, 2016 8:11:52 GMT -5
Not sure I get the anxiety about financing as they said they can go to early 2017. If so, either they significantly outperform sny (thus demonstrating a trajectory to profitability in which case financing will be no problemo) or they don't significantly outperform sny (and they demonstrate that sales of afrezza will be insufficient to sustain this company) and in such a case I would suspect financing will be impossible and afrezza gets sold for less than debt outstanding and the equity gets wiped out. The anxiety is that waiting until 2017 makes any future financing very expensive, and while many believe that MNKD can outperform SNY given enough time, the end of Q3 is not enough time to accomplish what needs to be done. Waiting to grab more financing only makes your alternative significantly more likely.
As to the others who commented on my post, you can't count on anything big happening. While various forms of partnerships, a termination payment from Sanofi or a milestone payment from RLS are all theoretically possible, there is nothing theoretical about payroll, utility bills, and so on. It is financially reckless to assume away a dilutive offering based on events that have a realistic probability of happening far below 50%. Management must behave as though those other things are not going to happen and, if one of them does happen, then they have the luxury of uncorking the champagne and dancing around the office. We all know what Plan B is if the company runs out of money, and prudent management teams and boards of directors do whatever they can to avoid that.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2016 8:19:24 GMT -5
Not sure I get the anxiety about financing as they said they can go to early 2017. If so, either they significantly outperform sny (thus demonstrating a trajectory to profitability in which case financing will be no problemo) or they don't significantly outperform sny (and they demonstrate that sales of afrezza will be insufficient to sustain this company) and in such a case I would suspect financing will be impossible and afrezza gets sold for less than debt outstanding and the equity gets wiped out. The anxiety is that waiting until 2017 makes any future financing very expensive, and while many believe that MNKD can outperform SNY given enough time, the end of Q3 is not enough time to accomplish what needs to be done. Waiting to grab more financing only makes your alternative significantly more likely.
As to the others who commented on my post, you can't count on anything big happening. While various forms of partnerships, a termination payment from Sanofi or a milestone payment from RLS are all theoretically possible, there is nothing theoretical about payroll, utility bills, and so on. It is financially reckless to assume away a dilutive offering based on events that have a realistic probability of happening far below 50%. Management must behave as though those other things are not going to happen and, if one of them does happen, then they have the luxury of uncorking the champagne and dancing around the office. We all know what Plan B is if the company runs out of money, and prudent management teams and boards of directors do whatever they can to avoid that. Funny thing, weather it be small mom & pop companies or a sophisticated biotech, cash is still king.
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Post by akemp3000 on Aug 19, 2016 8:21:29 GMT -5
All conversations about possible future dilution and financial problems can change very quickly with a jump in scripts which is MNKD's only true goal at this moment in time. We know the future if the jump doesn't happen. If it does, and I believe in Matt and Mike that it will, then MNKD's phone will start ringing from many directions and a variety of good options will become available...IMHO
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2016 9:26:38 GMT -5
The anxiety is that waiting until 2017 makes any future financing very expensive, and while many believe that MNKD can outperform SNY given enough time, the end of Q3 is not enough time to accomplish what needs to be done. Waiting to grab more financing only makes your alternative significantly more likely.
As to the others who commented on my post, you can't count on anything big happening. While various forms of partnerships, a termination payment from Sanofi or a milestone payment from RLS are all theoretically possible, there is nothing theoretical about payroll, utility bills, and so on. It is financially reckless to assume away a dilutive offering based on events that have a realistic probability of happening far below 50%. Management must behave as though those other things are not going to happen and, if one of them does happen, then they have the luxury of uncorking the champagne and dancing around the office. We all know what Plan B is if the company runs out of money, and prudent management teams and boards of directors do whatever they can to avoid that. Funny thing, weather it be small mom & pop companies or a sophisticated biotech, cash is still king. OMG.....YES, somebody gets it. YAY. Its always been about the scripts and its always about cash. Thats the only true beacon when investing.
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Post by brentie on Aug 19, 2016 9:50:33 GMT -5
Funny thing, weather it be small mom & pop companies or a sophisticated biotech, cash is still king. OMG.....YES, somebody gets it. YAY. Its always been about the scripts and its always about cash. Thats the only true beacon when investing. I know somebody else who would agree ....
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Post by surplusvalue on Aug 19, 2016 10:31:57 GMT -5
Not sure I get the anxiety about financing as they said they can go to early 2017. If so, either they significantly outperform sny (thus demonstrating a trajectory to profitability in which case financing will be no problemo) or they don't significantly outperform sny (and they demonstrate that sales of afrezza will be insufficient to sustain this company) and in such a case I would suspect financing will be impossible and afrezza gets sold for less than debt outstanding and the equity gets wiped out. The anxiety is that waiting until 2017 makes any future financing very expensive, and while many believe that MNKD can outperform SNY given enough time, the end of Q3 is not enough time to accomplish what needs to be done. Waiting to grab more financing only makes your alternative significantly more likely.
As to the others who commented on my post, you can't count on anything big happening. While various forms of partnerships, a termination payment from Sanofi or a milestone payment from RLS are all theoretically possible, there is nothing theoretical about payroll, utility bills, and so on. It is financially reckless to assume away a dilutive offering based on events that have a realistic probability of happening far below 50%. Management must behave as though those other things are not going to happen and, if one of them does happen, then they have the luxury of uncorking the champagne and dancing around the office. We all know what Plan B is if the company runs out of money, and prudent management teams and boards of directors do whatever they can to avoid that. Agreed. Certainly MNKD was remiss in not raising funds when the sp was high and didnt think about a rainy day by assuming all would go well with Sanofi;so waiting until they are in the corner again would again be irresponsible. The reason we cannot count on the milestone payment is not because it has less than a 50% probability of happening but rather because we have no idea what the amount will be.
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Post by beardawg on Aug 19, 2016 10:46:13 GMT -5
The anxiety is that waiting until 2017 makes any future financing very expensive, and while many believe that MNKD can outperform SNY given enough time, the end of Q3 is not enough time to accomplish what needs to be done. Waiting to grab more financing only makes your alternative significantly more likely.
As to the others who commented on my post, you can't count on anything big happening. While various forms of partnerships, a termination payment from Sanofi or a milestone payment from RLS are all theoretically possible, there is nothing theoretical about payroll, utility bills, and so on. It is financially reckless to assume away a dilutive offering based on events that have a realistic probability of happening far below 50%. Management must behave as though those other things are not going to happen and, if one of them does happen, then they have the luxury of uncorking the champagne and dancing around the office. We all know what Plan B is if the company runs out of money, and prudent management teams and boards of directors do whatever they can to avoid that. Agreed. Certainly MNKD was remiss in not raising funds when the sp was high and didnt think about a rainy day by assuming all would go well with Sanofi;so waiting until they are in the corner again would again be irresponsible. The reason we cannot count on the milestone payment is not because it has less than a 50% probability of happening but rather because we have no idea what the amount will be. But Mannkind does know the amount and the likelihood of reaching it, especially the closer we get to the time-frame they said we would get it.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 19, 2016 11:01:19 GMT -5
All conversations about possible future dilution and financial problems can change very quickly with a jump in scripts which is MNKD's only true goal at this moment in time. We know the future if the jump doesn't happen. If it does, and I believe in Matt and Mike that it will, then MNKD's phone will start ringing from many directions and a variety of good options will become available...IMHO I really don't see anyway we avoid dilution and the real question is how bad it is. A good uptake will raise the share price and reduce the necessary dilution. I don't think a loan at the sort of rate we could live with is feasible given the lack of free assets and the existing debt.
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Post by op2778 on Aug 19, 2016 11:24:57 GMT -5
We all agree that sales need to pick up and really fast (no marathon, this is a 100mt race guys). Scenario is:
R/S and then diluition.
just my opinion.
Unfortunately like someone of you said, they didn't think about an umbrella when price Was higher and we will be punished with more diluition and a reverse split.
op
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2016 12:57:00 GMT -5
We all agree that sales need to pick up and really fast (no marathon, this is a 100mt race guys). Scenario is: R/S and then diluition. just my opinion. Unfortunately like someone of you said, they didn't think about an umbrella when price Was higher and we will be punished with more diluition and a reverse split. op Perhaps someone with greater knowledge can comment but from I what recall, a reverse split results in temporary SP gain and is a signal that the end is near.
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Post by op2778 on Aug 19, 2016 13:45:08 GMT -5
And that's what will happen. If scripts remain low, the end will be very near. Another solution could be to sell Afrezza to keep a float MNKD but we all know that selling Afrezza without sales picking up is like giving a gift to BP.
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Post by nylefty on Aug 19, 2016 14:15:24 GMT -5
(snip) Unfortunately like someone of you said, they didn't think about an umbrella when price Was higher and we will be punished with more diluition and a reverse split. Perhaps someone with greater knowledge can comment but from I what recall, a reverse split results in temporary SP gain and is a signal that the end is near. www.cnbc.com/id/42212417
Mar 22, 2011 - New research indicates that reverse stock splits are usually good for investors. According to a new report by Cleve Rueckert, Birinyi Associates senior equity strategist, there have been 14 stocks in the S&P 500 since 2000 that have undergone a reverse stock split. Of those fourteen stocks, twelve were higher one year after the effective date of the reverse split, two were lower. The average gain was a gigantic 62.55 percent.
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Post by seanismorris on Aug 19, 2016 14:22:38 GMT -5
Selling Afrezza would be selling the company.
TS without Afrezza's success isn't worth selling.
TS pipeline is to far out to be worth anything.
Raising funds in some other manner requires Afrezza to resemble a blockbuster (scripts trajectory) in the next few months.
Scripts need to look good by the time the Label is improved (assuming Label is improved) or BK.
Basically, MannKind needs Afrezza to succeed fast or it's going BK.
If the Scripts look good, and the Label looks good- Funds will be available either through a partnership, loan, etc. any other scenario...BK.
Don't worry about delisting, we'll either have success or BK by the time that becomes a concern.
I don't think a reverse stock split would accomplish anything (at this point). If MannKind raises funds but remains under 1$, getting the price above 5$ fast would have some benefits...
Getting funds to stretch things out, would be because they are taking over the company to liquidate. See Molycorp.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2016 14:33:02 GMT -5
We all agree that sales need to pick up and really fast (no marathon, this is a 100mt race guys). Scenario is: R/S and then diluition. just my opinion. Unfortunately like someone of you said, they didn't think about an umbrella when price Was higher and we will be punished with more diluition and a reverse split. op Perhaps someone with greater knowledge can comment but from I what recall, a reverse split results in temporary SP gain and is a signal that the end is near. Stock splits whether increasing or decreasing the share count don't have an impact on what really matters - is the company doing well or not?! When a company splits say 2 for 1, you get 2 shares for every one share you own, that typically is a good sign for many reasons which I won't bother detailing here (could google it and read the details). When a company does the opposite, it's typically not a good sign and is usually done to clean up all those outstanding shares, make the stock price more attractive to potential investors, and helps to pull the company out of penny stock status. Either way, it doesn't change the financials, sales, debt, or anything else that matters. When a stock trading at 1 buck splits 2 for 1, it's now trading at 50 cents a share but you have twice as many shares from pre split and your value of the company (or your amount invested) doesn't change. If a stock trading at a buck does a 1 for 2 reverse split, the stock trades now at 2 bucks per share but you have half as many shares pre split. So there is no actual loss or gain when a stock splits. Just a change in numbers but not a change in your total investment. When it comes to stable companies, stock splits either way don't raise too many red flags. When it comes to penny stocks, it's typically a sign of the challenges such as high outstanding share counts (history of dilutions) combined with really low stock prices (lack of sales). Without any earnings, mnkd and matt in particular probably knows there's no reason to do a reverse split since there's no earnings. If they started bringing in revs and even started booking earnings, doing a reverse split would make tons of sense as it helps to clean up the balance sheet and produce better looking numbers. Earnings on 50 million shares will look a lot nicer vs earnings on 500 million shares outstanding.
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Post by therealisaching on Aug 19, 2016 14:34:54 GMT -5
Selling Afrezza would be selling the company. TS without Afrezza's success isn't worth selling. TS pipeline is to far out to be worth anything. Raising funds in some other manner requires Afrezza to resemble a blockbuster (scripts trajectory) in the next few months. Scripts need to look good by the time the Label is improved (assuming Label is improved) or BK. Basically, MannKind needs Afrezza to succeed fast or it's going BK. If the Scripts look good, and the Label looks good- Funds will be available either through a partnership, loan, etc. any other scenario...BK. Don't worry about delisting, we'll either have success or BK by the time that becomes a concern. I don't think a reverse stock split would accomplish anything (at this point). If MannKind raises funds but remains under 1$, getting the price above 5$ fast would have some benefits... Getting funds to stretch things out, would be because they are taking over the company to liquidate. See Molycorp. I dont believe the company will ever file bk while the mann trust shares are 1/3rd of the outstanding shares. That equity gets wiped out in a bk. The company was able to raise 50MM without having the product back or salesforce in place. Certainly they will be able to do another raise to further extend the runway if need be to give this an opportunity to work.
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