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Dilution?
Sept 22, 2016 2:45:15 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by cgiscgis on Sept 22, 2016 2:45:15 GMT -5
What about the RLS milestone payment?
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Post by slugworth008 on Sept 22, 2016 6:27:51 GMT -5
What about the RLS milestone payment? I'll believe it when I see it. RLS is just another piece of the MNKD mystery puzzle. IMO
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Post by kbrion77 on Sept 22, 2016 6:56:34 GMT -5
What about the RLS milestone payment? How about the $130M and $140M milestone payments from Tolero and Colby? Until there is a press release from Mannkind about receiving any dollars from RLS I would not expect a dime.
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Post by matt on Sept 22, 2016 8:46:38 GMT -5
Would there be enough buyers for that number of shares without some empirical data that 2nd launch will be more successful than first? I think it is pure guessing game as to when and at what price dilution will occur. I just don't have that sort of feeling that enough people would have a grasp on probabilities to have anything meaningful "baked" into current price. We've held steady at levels before only to crash through them. There are always buyers but it won't be at 70 cents. I have seen a lot of biotechs go through this kind of situation, looming delisting notice with scarce cash, and there are never any "good" buyers. The true healthcare investment funds (Orbimed, Atlas, etc.) will not touch MNKD because it is not the kind of stock they invest in. The good funds want biotechs with novel drugs, preferably first in class, that have a strong marketing partner and a clear playing field. Insulins have become a commodity and even big players like Sanofi are about to feel the pain of the PBM and managed care companies trimming their formularies. Yes, I know you will all say that Afrezza is the best rapid acting insulin and that it should not be compared to other insulins, but it is the market perception that counts and not the reality of the drug. Venture capital firms spend the time to get into details on their investments on private companies, but funds that trade public companies do not so the details aren't relevant to the investment decision.
So what you are left with is the other funds (several adjectives come to mind but this is a family friendly forum so I will refrain from using them). These guys invest to get the discounted shares and sell them quickly, usually within 20-30 days. They don't care if Mannkind sells insulin, mobile telephones, solar panels, or t-shirts; a discount is a discount and in any case they are not hanging around for more than a few weeks so why care about the product. Their primary metrics for whether they will make an investment is the size of the discount, the average daily volume of shares traded (they need somebody to buy the shares they plan to sell), and the volatility since they want an extra pop on the warrants they will demand. The level of analysis is rarely more sophisticated than that.
As for the dilution being built-in to the present price, there is some of that to be sure. When the market knows that a company will have to raise more funding the price inevitably starts to drop and when the funding actually hits there is another drop (because the new buyers want their discount from whatever the market price is as the time). The worst mistake companies make is to wait; the longer Matt goes without pulling the trigger the more the PPS will decline due to the looming dilution which will only make the share price that much lower for the new deal. Had Mannkind stepped up and done a funding when the share price was $1.00, it might have dropped the PPS to 70 cents, but by waiting the overhang and uncertainty let the price move to 70 cents anyway and now the next funding will almost certainly drop it below 50 cents. The price also takes a hit on reverse splits, and one of those is in the near future as well. None of that is a secret to the market.
Time to rip off the Band-Aid. Go ahead and man up, tell the shareholders the bad news that a reverse split is coming (personally I would do something like 1 for 20), conduct the shareholder vote to authorize it, and get back in NASDAQ compliance. Then do the funding with more like a $10 price (less discounts and warrants) and hope for the best. The balance sheet is not going to fix itself, and doing incremental steps with a stock trading under $1.00 is only going to end badly. It might end badly anyway, but at least there is a fighting chance with an investable price.
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Post by als57 on Sept 22, 2016 9:07:25 GMT -5
If most at this point haven't realized that Matt is less than truthful and also based on his handling of the NASDAC notice of non-compliance of the stock price, isn't it time for the BOD to give both he and any surrogates "the boot." This theme keeps getting rerun over and over, time if there is any, to look for competency at the position. The saying "fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me." Except its been many times in the three years I've been on the Mannkind tour bus!
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Post by peppy on Sept 22, 2016 9:14:32 GMT -5
If most at this point haven't realized that Matt is less than truthful and also based on his handling of the NASDAC notice of non-compliance of the stock price, isn't it time for the BOD to give both he and any surrogates "the boot." This theme keeps getting rerun over and over, time if there is any, to look for competency at the position. The saying "fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me." Except its been many times in the three years I've been on the Mannkind tour bus! The world best fast acting insulin as evidenced by continuous glucose monitors is being manipulated by big pharma. Big Pharma doesn't want the competition. Matt and the board are trying to bring this insulin to market. as simple as that. Like fighting the US army, marines and airforce with a hand gun. We human beings, we can see what has gone on. The physicians, I do not completely understand, the possibily of a law suit if lung cancer develops is the only thing I can think of that is stopping physicians. simple as that. If you want to be angry, be angry at yourself. You could have sold. Pep
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on Sept 22, 2016 9:17:39 GMT -5
If most at this point haven't realized that Matt is less than truthful and also based on his handling of the NASDAC notice of non-compliance of the stock price, isn't it time for the BOD to give both he and any surrogates "the boot." This theme keeps getting rerun over and over, time if there is any, to look for competency at the position. The saying "fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me." Except its been many times in the three years I've been on the Mannkind tour bus! Unless they have something up their sleeves to counter the NASDAQ notification and waiting for the ink to dry! If not, shame on me and shame on them!!!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2016 9:18:59 GMT -5
What about the RLS milestone payment? Its coming but first MNKD has to release their partnership with google
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Post by peppy on Sept 22, 2016 9:19:25 GMT -5
If most at this point haven't realized that Matt is less than truthful and also based on his handling of the NASDAC notice of non-compliance of the stock price, isn't it time for the BOD to give both he and any surrogates "the boot." This theme keeps getting rerun over and over, time if there is any, to look for competency at the position. The saying "fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me." Except its been many times in the three years I've been on the Mannkind tour bus! Unless they have something up their sleeves to counter the NASDAQ notification and waiting for the ink to dry! If not, shame on me and shame on them!!!Hawaii, start walking
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2016 9:20:02 GMT -5
If most at this point haven't realized that Matt is less than truthful and also based on his handling of the NASDAC notice of non-compliance of the stock price, isn't it time for the BOD to give both he and any surrogates "the boot." This theme keeps getting rerun over and over, time if there is any, to look for competency at the position. The saying "fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me." Except its been many times in the three years I've been on the Mannkind tour bus! Unless they have something up their sleeves to counter the NASDAQ notification and waiting for the ink to dry! If not, shame on me and shame on them!!!So is the March off the table?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2016 9:20:38 GMT -5
Unless they have something up their sleeves to counter the NASDAQ notification and waiting for the ink to dry! If not, shame on me and shame on them!!! Hawaii, start walking Nice job Pep lol
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on Sept 22, 2016 9:21:52 GMT -5
All longs deserve a Rabbit Out Of The Hat, pull it out Matt. If not a Rabbit, then announce a 1 for 20 R/S.
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on Sept 22, 2016 9:23:32 GMT -5
Unless they have something up their sleeves to counter the NASDAQ notification and waiting for the ink to dry! If not, shame on me and shame on them!!! Hawaii, start walking I'm not God, haven't learned to walk on water.
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Post by hawaiiguy42 on Sept 22, 2016 9:29:22 GMT -5
Yet!
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Post by gonetotown on Sept 22, 2016 9:30:42 GMT -5
Would there be enough buyers for that number of shares without some empirical data that 2nd launch will be more successful than first? I think it is pure guessing game as to when and at what price dilution will occur. I just don't have that sort of feeling that enough people would have a grasp on probabilities to have anything meaningful "baked" into current price. We've held steady at levels before only to crash through them. There are always buyers but it won't be at 70 cents. I have seen a lot of biotechs go through this kind of situation, looming delisting notice with scarce cash, and there are never any "good" buyers. The true healthcare investment funds (Orbimed, Atlas, etc.) will not touch MNKD because it is not the kind of stock they invest in. The good funds want biotechs with novel drugs, preferably first in class, that have a strong marketing partner and a clear playing field. Insulins have become a commodity and even big players like Sanofi are about to feel the pain of the PBM and managed care companies trimming their formularies. Yes, I know you will all say that Afrezza is the best rapid acting insulin and that it should not be compared to other insulins, but it is the market perception that counts and not the reality of the drug. Venture capital firms spend the time to get into details on their investments on private companies, but funds that trade public companies do not so the details aren't relevant to the investment decision.
So what you are left with is the other funds (several adjectives come to mind but this is a family friendly forum so I will refrain from using them). These guys invest to get the discounted shares and sell them quickly, usually within 20-30 days. They don't care if Mannkind sells insulin, mobile telephones, solar panels, or t-shirts; a discount is a discount and in any case they are not hanging around for more than a few weeks so why care about the product. Their primary metrics for whether they will make an investment is the size of the discount, the average daily volume of shares traded (they need somebody to buy the shares they plan to sell), and the volatility since they want an extra pop on the warrants they will demand. The level of analysis is rarely more sophisticated than that.
As for the dilution being built-in to the present price, there is some of that to be sure. When the market knows that a company will have to raise more funding the price inevitably starts to drop and when the funding actually hits there is another drop (because the new buyers want their discount from whatever the market price is as the time). The worst mistake companies make is to wait; the longer Matt goes without pulling the trigger the more the PPS will decline due to the looming dilution which will only make the share price that much lower for the new deal. Had Mannkind stepped up and done a funding when the share price was $1.00, it might have dropped the PPS to 70 cents, but by waiting the overhang and uncertainty let the price move to 70 cents anyway and now the next funding will almost certainly drop it below 50 cents. The price also takes a hit on reverse splits, and one of those is in the near future as well. None of that is a secret to the market.
Time to rip off the Band-Aid. Go ahead and man up, tell the shareholders the bad news that a reverse split is coming (personally I would do something like 1 for 20), conduct the shareholder vote to authorize it, and get back in NASDAQ compliance. Then do the funding with more like a $10 price (less discounts and warrants) and hope for the best. The balance sheet is not going to fix itself, and doing incremental steps with a stock trading under $1.00 is only going to end badly. It might end badly anyway, but at least there is a fighting chance with an investable price.
I don't see how you can expect a company to "rip off the bandaid" when apparently they are too fearful to own up to receiving an essentially meaningless delisting notice from NASDAQ.
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