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Post by silentknight on Sept 26, 2016 12:05:16 GMT -5
Realistically, a R/S is probably the only likely mechanism that MNKD has to remain in Nasdaq compliance within the next 180 days. We're currently sitting at .57 per share after today's bloodletting, so MNKD will have to create nearly double in share price for us to regain compliance.
Yes, the numbers might come in and be significant to the point that buyers come in, but we aren't there yet and MNKD is running out of time. If they plan to use the ATM or have a secondary offering, I'd much rather they do it at a R/S price of 10 to 1 or 15 to 1 in order to generate more cash flow.
I don't want a R/S to occur, but it's looking like it's the only way to keep us on the Nasdaq. The numbers haven't been enough to bring in buyers, which is why you're seeing the price fall like a rock. Personally, I don't think we see the numbers people want before money runs out, making the R/S the only way forward in my eyes. Barring a miracle, we're going to get the double whammy (R/S into dilution).
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Post by cathode on Sept 26, 2016 12:11:49 GMT -5
Realistically, a R/S is probably the only likely mechanism that MNKD has to remain in Nasdaq compliance within the next 180 days. We're currently sitting at .57 per share after today's bloodletting, so MNKD will have to create nearly double in share price for us to regain compliance. Yes, the numbers might come in and be significant to the point that buyers come in, but we aren't there yet and MNKD is running out of time. If they plan to use the ATM or have a secondary offering, I'd much rather they do it at a R/S price of 10 to 1 or 15 to 1 in order to generate more cash flow. I don't want a R/S to occur, but it's looking like it's the only way to keep us on the Nasdaq. The numbers haven't been enough to bring in buyers, which is why you're seeing the price fall like a rock. Personally, I don't think we see the numbers people want before money runs out, making the R/S the only way forward in my eyes. Barring a miracle, we're going to get the double whammy (R/S into dilution). I would say that doubling the share price from the current position (really only need to gain 75%, not 100%) is possible. Maybe not probable, but certainly well within the realm of possibilities. I don't understand how dilution after a reverse split is supposed to generate more cash flow than before the split. The ATM shares will be merged just like the common shares. Save
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Post by audiomr on Sept 26, 2016 12:12:15 GMT -5
If the share price isn't back over $1 in 180 days it will be because Afrezza has failed in the market, and it will be game over anyway. Don't see how a reverse split helps with regard to ATM or secondary offering. The dilution for any given amount of cash raised will be the same -- or greater, as the price would likely fall precipitously from its initial R/S value.
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Post by silentknight on Sept 26, 2016 12:20:28 GMT -5
If they do a secondary now, they could offer up 100 million shares and generate more or less $60 million.
If they R/S, say 10 to 1, the share price goes to $6.00 and they can offer up 50 million share and recoup $300 million, assuming there are buyers.
I don't want to see either, but if we are going to see dilution, I'd rather see it at a point where it benefits MNKD the most.
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Post by mnkdfann on Sept 26, 2016 12:45:09 GMT -5
Let's get back to the tragedy of price. 61 cents. let's hope some buyers/scripts will come in. let's try to break and hold 65 cents, the January low. "Limbo's all you know. How'd you go so low?"
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 26, 2016 12:50:09 GMT -5
They would wait a while. They just got the notice and they have time. Even at .25 10:1 split they'd go above the delist zone. Assuming they are still bullish about MNKD 2.0, they must believe scripts will continue to rise and stock price will go back above $1.
I doubt we'll see either dilution or RS near term unless things are effectively still the same in another 3 months. At which point, audiomr has a strong point.
My guess is we'll show a gradual increase. Not the hockey stick most here are audibly, or secretly, hoping for. But improvement that can be pointed to nonetheless.
And one that we can hope that will help in any (if any) negotiation for settlement with SNY.
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Post by BlueCat on Sept 26, 2016 12:53:45 GMT -5
Folks, I basically disagree with an assertion that's generally been made.
The cast is offstage waiting for their queue, but truly, the singing hasn't started yet.
There's still a chance.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2016 12:54:29 GMT -5
If they do a secondary now, they could offer up 100 million shares and generate more or less $60 million. If they R/S, say 10 to 1, the share price goes to $6.00 and they can offer up 50 million share and recoup $300 million, assuming there are buyers. I don't want to see either, but if we are going to see dilution, I'd rather see it at a point where it benefits MNKD the most. Think about that for a second. If it were doable, why wouldn't everyone going for additional cash simply do a reverse split before selling more shares? Doing a R/S means one of two things - delisting situation or share count cleanup. With mnkd, what's the issue? And investors with money to give will, imo, balk at putting in 300 million in cash (to use your example) following a R/S of 10 to 1. Having said that, there are a lot of wealthy people out there willing to take risks, so, one truly never knows until it's tried. I'd put that into the miracle column.
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Post by tingtongtung on Sept 26, 2016 12:56:37 GMT -5
This is frustrating.. What I don't understand is why Matt didn't announce the NASDAQ letter publicly within 4 days? IMHO, Matt is an honest guy doing his best. And, he is the CFO as well. Why did he forget this? I can think of only 2 things: * They are really sinking. * They are on the verge of some kind of a deal that will kick the price up. I hope it's the second one. I do understand that turning this around takes time, and I'm OK with it. I appreciate Matt, Mike, Urbanski, and all others. Scripts are looking up. The post of peppy (where she says the plan of attack to treat new diabetes patients has to follow the 3 steps (pills, etc.....) ) severely limits the rate of growth. But, the decline every single day is so depressing.. I hope there is a good way of moving the price >$1 soon.
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Post by me on Sept 26, 2016 13:01:37 GMT -5
If they do a secondary now, they could offer up 100 million shares and generate more or less $60 million. If they R/S, say 10 to 1, the share price goes to $6.00 and they can offer up 50 million share and recoup $300 million, assuming there are buyers. I don't want to see either, but if we are going to see dilution, I'd rather see it at a point where it benefits MNKD the most. liane is correct. Your example above is misleading. Offering 50 million shares post-1:10 R/S for $300 million ($6.00 p/s) is the equivalent of offering 500 million (not 100 million, as in your example) shares for $300 million ($0.60 p/s) pre-R/S. Whether pre- or post-R/S, this would be approximately a 100% dilution.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2016 13:01:42 GMT -5
I've thought about the lack of a "prompt" response to the nasdaq letter. I have to believe that mnkd matt knows the rules. So why the delay? I'm thinking it's an oversight. And given the loose terminology on the FD rules, even if mnkd got a penalty I would guess it would be insignificant. The real danger of non compliance is the loss of faith by investors in management. Given mnkd's issues at the moment, that's something that's probably not on many people's minds. So many more immediate issues to solve.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2016 13:06:14 GMT -5
R/S would be the option when there are no other ones available. If this were done, how long until the institutional shorts unloaded on MNKD again? Take a guess if MNKD did a 10:1 RS that initially yielded a SP of $6.00 where SP would be in a few weeks? You really think a banker doing the deal would help the company raise money at the SP the day after the R/S?
Right now, we need strong NRx growth and corresponding TRx growth to demonstrate patient adherence and we need it now so by the time we get to the end of October, there is some reason to believe that Mike C's plan has legs.
If Matt P has a rabbit in his hat, now would be a great time to pull it out.
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Post by silentknight on Sept 26, 2016 13:31:47 GMT -5
If they do a secondary now, they could offer up 100 million shares and generate more or less $60 million. If they R/S, say 10 to 1, the share price goes to $6.00 and they can offer up 50 million share and recoup $300 million, assuming there are buyers. I don't want to see either, but if we are going to see dilution, I'd rather see it at a point where it benefits MNKD the most. liane is correct. Your example above is misleading. Offering 50 million shares post-1:10 R/S for $300 million ($6.00 p/s) is the equivalent of offering 500 million (not 100 million, as in your example) shares for $300 million ($0.60 p/s) pre-R/S. Whether pre- or post-R/S, this would be approximately a 100% dilution. The example wasn't meant to be equal in scope, just an example in how MNKD would generate more income with a higher share price as a result of the R/S. In order for MNKD to generate any significant capital from a dilution, either at current SP levels or post R/S, we are going to see considerable dilution. Don't forget that shareholders recently authorized a pretty heft increase in the number of authorized shares. It wasn't 100% dilution, granted, but in order to generate significant income at .60 per share, you're going to have to sell a ton of shares. I hope neither happens, but the R/S gives MNKD flexibility in determining how many have to be sold to generate cash. We don't have much of an option with where we are now currently. It would have to be a ton.
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Post by me on Sept 26, 2016 13:42:02 GMT -5
liane is correct. Your example above is misleading. Offering 50 million shares post-1:10 R/S for $300 million ($6.00 p/s) is the equivalent of offering 500 million (not 100 million, as in your example) shares for $300 million ($0.60 p/s) pre-R/S. Whether pre- or post-R/S, this would be approximately a 100% dilution. The example wasn't meant to be equal in scope, just an example in how MNKD would generate more income with a higher share price as a result of the R/S. In order for MNKD to generate any significant capital from a dilution, either at current SP levels or post R/S, we are going to see considerable dilution. Don't forget that shareholders recently authorized a pretty heft increase in the number of authorized shares. It wasn't 100% dilution, granted, but in order to generate significant income at .60 per share, you're going to have to sell a ton of shares. I hope neither happens, but the R/S gives MNKD flexibility in determining how many have to be sold to generate cash. We don't have much of an option with where we are now currently. It would have to be a ton. I really think you need to think this through a little more. Any increase in the higher share price post-R/S is offset by the decreased number of shares to be offered...by the same ratio, resulting in the same proceeds, all else being equal. It's easier to think about what percentage of the outstanding shares in additional shares MNKD would offer for any dilutive financing and at what total proceeds. The result would be the same, pre- and post-R/S. BTW, increasing the number of authorized shares does not dilute equity.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 26, 2016 13:58:46 GMT -5
I've thought about the lack of a "prompt" response to the nasdaq letter. I have to believe that mnkd matt knows the rules. So why the delay? I'm thinking it's an oversight. And given the loose terminology on the FD rules, even if mnkd got a penalty I would guess it would be insignificant. The real danger of non compliance is the loss of faith by investors in management. Given mnkd's issues at the moment, that's something that's probably not on many people's minds. So many more immediate issues to solve. Are you suggesting they just missed informing share holders? I have to think a good majority of investors have lost faith in MNKD. Some bought back in when Castagna started interacting more with share holders but for the most part only a small group have faith in Matt.
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