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Post by derek2 on Nov 4, 2016 17:27:18 GMT -5
I've posted a number of mathematical models, but here's a non-mathematical one:
If you have a core of happy patients, and a group of new patients, if you retain the new patients then TRx will grow, since they become part of the core group of happy patients.
We're showing month after month of flat TRx. It means that for every new patient, one drops off; or the new patient never renews.
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 4, 2016 17:35:59 GMT -5
I've posted a number of mathematical models, but here's a non-mathematical one: If you have a core of happy patients, and a group of new patients, if you retain the new patients then TRx will grow, since they become part of the core group of happy patients. We're showing month after month of flat TRx. It means that for every new patient, one drops off; or the new patient never renews. And he says this with a smile on his face. 😂 |
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Post by derek2 on Nov 4, 2016 20:49:48 GMT -5
I've posted a number of mathematical models, but here's a non-mathematical one: If you have a core of happy patients, and a group of new patients, if you retain the new patients then TRx will grow, since they become part of the core group of happy patients. We're showing month after month of flat TRx. It means that for every new patient, one drops off; or the new patient never renews. And he says this with a smile on his face. 😂 I'm just a happy guy. No need having a grim sourpuss in my avatar when my words will do just as well. I thought it was an interesting way of looking at things. If half of all new users had stayed on as long-term users, weekly prescriptions would be in the thousands. The market knows it. Mike C. knows it. I'm sure he knows why as well. I don't know why - maybe insurance / cost. I mean, once you've started on Afrezza, you're already past the spirometry, and the physician buy-in. So what's ruining the party? This, and not stuff like label, is what concerns me, since if you can't retain once you've acquired a customer, then why acquire? |
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 5, 2016 0:51:01 GMT -5
mn, I really cannot follow your math. Where did all the people go that started 5 months ago, 6 months ago and so forth? They have to be reflected in the TRx, do they not? And if they're not, well....
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 5, 2016 6:20:09 GMT -5
I agree with derek2. Weekly scripts should be accumulating but they're not. At one point several months ago, NRx were declining but refills remained constant. Castagna may have managed to halt the decline, but there appears to be a core group of prescribers and little growth which, as baba points out, would be reflected in TRx. The TRx numbers are pathetic. I've posted many times that until weekly scripts break into the thousands, there is nothing to be excited about.
The retweets and blogs that sportsrancho has been posting tell the story. Virtually nobody has heard of Afrezza. At next week's earnings call, I want to hear how Castagna intends to change this sad state of affairs.
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