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Post by derek2 on Nov 7, 2016 9:35:12 GMT -5
This can't be more of the same because this is the final CC. This is it. We won't make it to next quarter's CC without more cash. It is crystal clear to everyone that murky optimism is no longer acceptable for this CC. Some B-word will have to be announced: Bankruptcy, Buyout or Business Partner. My hopes are that RLS will show us their money. I think that RLS is the last wild card, and I think the MJ legalization votes on Tuesday will directly affect the viability of MNKD, since RLS will be far more likely to give financial support in a more permissive regulatory environment. 3 weeks ago I put my money where my mouth was by buying Jan 17 puts (to offset my Jan 17 calls which are worthless) since I saw severe dilution as inevitable. (I disclosed it at the time.) Last week, I sold 2/3 of them, leaving me with a small profit and covering the cost of the final 1/3 which I'll probably let run (although I might sell the rest to fund the strategy outlined in the next paragraph if the Tuesday votes are convincing). First profit on a MNKD trade in 16 months... If the majority of MJ ballots pass, I'll buy some preemptive short-dated calls on Wed morning in anticipation of a bunch of detail being released on the RLS partnership, since the legislative landscape will favor the partnership. I think it could lead to apop in share price, at least temporarily, if RLS came in with a buy-in or large milestone payment. EDIT: [Okay, I went ahead and bought 50 Nov 18 $0.50 calls, which I'll add to if the votes go positive & sell if they don't. Small bet, so the risk is low.]This may seem like an uncharacteritically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in. Any indication that things are not so dire could lead to an influx of hot money. |
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 7, 2016 10:17:07 GMT -5
This can't be more of the same because this is the final CC. This is it. We won't make it to next quarter's CC without more cash. It is crystal clear to everyone that murky optimism is no longer acceptable for this CC. Some B-word will have to be announced: Bankruptcy, Buyout or Business Partner. My hopes are that RLS will show us their money. and I think the MJ legalization votes on Tuesday will directly affect the viability of MNKD, since RLS will be far more likely to give financial support in a more permissive regulatory environment. 3 weeks ago I put my money where my mouth was by buying Jan 17 puts (to offset my Jan 17 calls which are worthless) since I saw severe dilution as inevitable. (I disclosed it at the time.) Last week, I sold 2/3 of them, leaving me with a small profit and covering the cost of the final 1/3 which I'll probably let run (although I might sell the rest to fund the strategy outlined in the next paragraph if the Tuesday votes are convincing). First profit on a MNKD trade in 16 months... If the majority of MJ ballots pass, I'll buy some preemptive short-dated calls on Wed morning in anticipation of a bunch of detail being released on the RLS partnership, since the legislative landscape will favor the partnership. I think it could lead to apop in share price, at least temporarily, if RLS came in with a buy-in or large milestone payment. EDIT: [Okay, I went ahead and bought 50 Nov 18 $0.50 calls, which I'll add to if the votes go positive & sell if they don't. Small bet, so the risk is low.]This may seem like an uncharacteritically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in. Any indication that things are not so dire could lead to an influx of hot money. Even a better wild card, and one that has fallen off the list, would be a $200 MM SALE OF AFREZZA to a small Middle Eastern country that has gov't sponsored health care. Recall that comment made by Al Mann some years ago before approval. Perhaps it fell off the list for a reason. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 7, 2016 11:48:33 GMT -5
No PR = nothing material happened. Are they timing PR to coincide with ER or CC? That is very unlikely, so another CC with forward looking statements then.
Management knows what this will do to the stock...
Is there a plan to this madness or not?
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Post by babaoriley on Nov 7, 2016 12:00:20 GMT -5
"This may seem like an uncharacteristically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in."
There's some baked in, derek, no doubt, but until financing is announced and the terms disclosed, well, let's just say, if it were chicken you were baking, I wouldn't eat it yet!
There will be relief that we've bought time, but the price of the financing will drive the share price short term.
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Post by silentknight on Nov 7, 2016 12:13:59 GMT -5
If people that think bad financing is already baked in to the current share price, stay tuned for after hours on Wednesday and market opening on Thursday. If MNKD doesn't address how they plan to keep the lights on or detail the terms of a bad deal, the market will punish them severely and you'll see the share price crater, just like we've seen for the past few years. They've written off MNKD and anything less than good news will further fuel their narrative that the company is going under and is worth of a lower share price.
Why would this week be any different than the last two years?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2016 15:30:26 GMT -5
This can't be more of the same because this is the final CC. This is it. We won't make it to next quarter's CC without more cash. It is crystal clear to everyone that murky optimism is no longer acceptable for this CC. Some B-word will have to be announced: Bankruptcy, Buyout or Business Partner. My hopes are that RLS will show us their money. I think that RLS is the last wild card, and I think the MJ legalization votes on Tuesday will directly affect the viability of MNKD, since RLS will be far more likely to give financial support in a more permissive regulatory environment. 3 weeks ago I put my money where my mouth was by buying Jan 17 puts (to offset my Jan 17 calls which are worthless) since I saw severe dilution as inevitable. (I disclosed it at the time.) Last week, I sold 2/3 of them, leaving me with a small profit and covering the cost of the final 1/3 which I'll probably let run (although I might sell the rest to fund the strategy outlined in the next paragraph if the Tuesday votes are convincing). First profit on a MNKD trade in 16 months... If the majority of MJ ballots pass, I'll buy some preemptive short-dated calls on Wed morning in anticipation of a bunch of detail being released on the RLS partnership, since the legislative landscape will favor the partnership. I think it could lead to apop in share price, at least temporarily, if RLS came in with a buy-in or large milestone payment. EDIT: [Okay, I went ahead and bought 50 Nov 18 $0.50 calls, which I'll add to if the votes go positive & sell if they don't. Small bet, so the risk is low.]This may seem like an uncharacteritically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in. Any indication that things are not so dire could lead to an influx of hot money. mj legalization? Nice strategy btw |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 7, 2016 15:32:33 GMT -5
I thought for sure there would be some moves today. Some willing to bet there was something positive coming from the call. Looks like the market has spoken. Very curious to see what happens.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 7, 2016 15:34:38 GMT -5
Have to say I agree...
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Post by matt on Nov 7, 2016 16:50:09 GMT -5
This may seem like an uncharacteritically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in. Any indication that things are not so dire could lead to an influx of hot money.
I am not 100% sure what you are saying here. If the company already had a financing arranged, they would have been obligated to disclose it in an 8-K within four days. Whatever else you think about management, they do seem to be 100% compliant with their SEC mandated reporting which would lead me to conclude that any financing is not done and dusted. In particular, there is so much market perception riding on the election that I doubt many investors have been signing up for private placements in the last few days. If the deal has yet to be done, pricing cannot have been set so there is going to be movement south from today's close because those putting up the money will want a discount.
The one option that could be possible, and I think I mentioned this elsewhere, is that Sanofi pre-pays the insulin put in exchange for some consideration. Sanofi is going to have to pay the put one way or another, but paying now with interest rates essentially at zero is not a big deal for them, so the only question is what can they squeeze out of MNKD in exchange. It could be MNKD agrees that the sales partnership is 100% over, both sides have fulfilled 100% of their mutual obligations (except the Sanofi note repayment), and that neither party will file for arbitration; that would eliminate a potential management headache for Sanofi. I don't think Sanofi is at risk of losing anything in an arbitration proceeding, not even a penny, but they would still have legal fees and management time dedicated to swatting away the gnat so a stand-still agreement has some value. Even so, given MNKD's balance sheet if there was such a deal it too would trigger the same four day filing requirement as a financing and we have not seen an 8-K since September.
At any rate, we will all find out a lot of things in the next 24 hours.
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Post by derek2 on Nov 7, 2016 17:03:58 GMT -5
This may seem like an uncharacteritically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in. Any indication that things are not so dire could lead to an influx of hot money.
I am not 100% sure what you are saying here. If the company already had a financing arranged, they would have been obligated to disclose it in an 8-K within four days. Whatever else you think about management, they do seem to be 100% compliant with their SEC mandated reporting which would lead me to conclude that any financing is not done and dusted. In particular, there is so much market perception riding on the election that I doubt many investors have been signing up for private placements in the last few days. If the deal has yet to be done, pricing cannot have been set so there is going to be movement south from today's close because those putting up the money will want a discount.
The one option that could be possible, and I think I mentioned this elsewhere, is that Sanofi pre-pays the insulin put in exchange for some consideration. Sanofi is going to have to pay the put one way or another, but paying now with interest rates essentially at zero is not a big deal for them, so the only question is what can they squeeze out of MNKD in exchange. It could be MNKD agrees that the sales partnership is 100% over, both sides have fulfilled 100% of their mutual obligations (except the Sanofi note repayment), and that neither party will file for arbitration; that would eliminate a potential management headache for Sanofi. I don't think Sanofi is at risk of losing anything in an arbitration proceeding, not even a penny, but they would still have legal fees and management time dedicated to swatting away the gnat so a stand-still agreement has some value. Even so, given MNKD's balance sheet if there was such a deal it too would trigger the same four day filing requirement as a financing and we have not seen an 8-K since September.
At any rate, we will all find out a lot of things in the next 24 hours.
I'm not normally one to read into the tea leaves, but I'm thinking that the Wednesday date is right after parts of the country vote on marijuana liberalization. If things remain tight, there will be a far smaller commercial opportunity for MNKD / RLS than if they loosen. This vote could be what MNKD / RLS are waiting for, and a strong legalization / decrim vote could be a trigger for a payment or other event that would then be material news, and the CC would fall well within the 4 days reporting rule (one day, in fact). |
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Post by lennymnkd on Nov 7, 2016 18:06:28 GMT -5
As in / milestone payment .. Interesting
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Post by rockstarrick on Nov 7, 2016 19:32:21 GMT -5
I am not 100% sure what you are saying here. If the company already had a financing arranged, they would have been obligated to disclose it in an 8-K within four days. Whatever else you think about management, they do seem to be 100% compliant with their SEC mandated reporting which would lead me to conclude that any financing is not done and dusted. In particular, there is so much market perception riding on the election that I doubt many investors have been signing up for private placements in the last few days. If the deal has yet to be done, pricing cannot have been set so there is going to be movement south from today's close because those putting up the money will want a discount.
The one option that could be possible, and I think I mentioned this elsewhere, is that Sanofi pre-pays the insulin put in exchange for some consideration. Sanofi is going to have to pay the put one way or another, but paying now with interest rates essentially at zero is not a big deal for them, so the only question is what can they squeeze out of MNKD in exchange. It could be MNKD agrees that the sales partnership is 100% over, both sides have fulfilled 100% of their mutual obligations (except the Sanofi note repayment), and that neither party will file for arbitration; that would eliminate a potential management headache for Sanofi. I don't think Sanofi is at risk of losing anything in an arbitration proceeding, not even a penny, but they would still have legal fees and management time dedicated to swatting away the gnat so a stand-still agreement has some value. Even so, given MNKD's balance sheet if there was such a deal it too would trigger the same four day filing requirement as a financing and we have not seen an 8-K since September.
At any rate, we will all find out a lot of things in the next 24 hours.
I'm not normally one to read into the tea leaves, but I'm thinking that the Wednesday date is right after parts of the country vote on marijuana liberalization. If things remain tight, there will be a far smaller commercial opportunity for MNKD / RLS than if they loosen. This vote could be what MNKD / RLS are waiting for, and a strong legalization / decrim vote could be a trigger for a payment or other event that would then be material news, and the CC would fall well within the 4 days reporting rule (one day, in fact). Absolutely agree, There are several reasons to fly incognito if you are RLS, and trying to be in the front line of the recreational and medical marijuana gold rush that will take place if the majority of the Country votes to legalize would be #1 in my opinion. The pot market is enormous!!! I live in Washington where voters gave the green light to medical marijuana first, then recreational a year or two later, and I can tell you, there is a ton of money to be made. Why would RLS just open up and say, hey everybody, we're getting ready to make a fortune by doing "this" when "this" happens. If this Country legalizes recreational weed across the board we will be out of debt in no time, the amount of money it generates is "mind blowing". "Stay tuned" for investment opportunities, 🇺🇸 |
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 7, 2016 20:11:48 GMT -5
I voted yes in CA for the sake of MNKD:-)
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Post by broncolife on Nov 7, 2016 20:51:12 GMT -5
I voted yes in CA for the sake of MNKD:-) I voted yes for medical MJ in Florida, one for those how really need it, and two for MNKD. I also hope we vote on recreational use within a few years. I have seen way too much money and time wasted on the alleged war on drugs! |
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Post by surplusvalue on Nov 7, 2016 22:11:46 GMT -5
This may seem like an uncharacteritically optimistic post, but at this share price, financing at terrible terms is baked in. Any indication that things are not so dire could lead to an influx of hot money.
I am not 100% sure what you are saying here. If the company already had a financing arranged, they would have been obligated to disclose it in an 8-K within four days. Whatever else you think about management, they do seem to be 100% compliant with their SEC mandated reporting which would lead me to conclude that any financing is not done and dusted. In particular, there is so much market perception riding on the election that I doubt many investors have been signing up for private placements in the last few days. If the deal has yet to be done, pricing cannot have been set so there is going to be movement south from today's close because those putting up the money will want a discount.
The one option that could be possible, and I think I mentioned this elsewhere, is that Sanofi pre-pays the insulin put in exchange for some consideration. Sanofi is going to have to pay the put one way or another, but paying now with interest rates essentially at zero is not a big deal for them, so the only question is what can they squeeze out of MNKD in exchange. It could be MNKD agrees that the sales partnership is 100% over, both sides have fulfilled 100% of their mutual obligations (except the Sanofi note repayment), and that neither party will file for arbitration; that would eliminate a potential management headache for Sanofi. I don't think Sanofi is at risk of losing anything in an arbitration proceeding, not even a penny, but they would still have legal fees and management time dedicated to swatting away the gnat so a stand-still agreement has some value. Even so, given MNKD's balance sheet if there was such a deal it too would trigger the same four day filing requirement as a financing and we have not seen an 8-K since September.
At any rate, we will all find out a lot of things in the next 24 hours.
In the early part of this thread, I pointed out that any material information would have to be announced not just financing and that nothing has shown up which would indicate that they have nothing. The chances of timing it for the CC are remote. In another thread I suggested that as a targeted stock that this will go lower anyways without any very substantial news. Financing alone might not cut it as far as the market is concerned especially given where scripts are. I'm bracing for the worst. I would prefer to be wrong. |
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