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Post by falconquest on Nov 29, 2016 17:43:30 GMT -5
I don't like to make price predictions but my gut tells me we hit the thirty's or even high twenties before a turn around. Matt could extend the cash position out ten years but if we don't sell product no one cares (as evidenced by the lack of questions during the last conference call). Once sales pick up then the share price will turn but in the mean time, I predict the slide will continue.
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Post by BlueCat on Nov 30, 2016 11:24:51 GMT -5
Call me jaded, but I still suspect that even sales/scripts will not lift the boat because the market is effectively broken. At least not directly.
The amount of bashing throughout social media and the articles is bizarre for a company of this profile. As is the shorting at this level. The behaviour with this stock doesn't map to reality.
How to break this cycle?
Well, for sure sales/scripts do need to happen (whether on Afrezza or a different venture) because $$ needs to happen. One route (assuming success!) is that at some point in the future, MNKD does start generating significant revenue. Foreign deal, royalty payments, skyrocketing scripts or what. Rather than a desperate move like a R/S, they initiate a buyback program to reduce the float. This would simultaneously remove the leverage for the short cycle, and provide a bullish indicator to market.
Then of course, there's those other routes - mergers, etc. But at this stage, getting a good agreement seems like a fantasy, and after SNY experience, imagine (and rightfully so), mgt and board are not feeling the love and trust.
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Post by goyocafe on Nov 30, 2016 11:34:47 GMT -5
Call me jaded, but I still suspect that even sales/scripts will not lift the boat because the market is effectively broken. At least not directly. The amount of bashing throughout social media and the articles is bizarre for a company of this profile. As is the shorting at this level. The behaviour with this stock doesn't map to reality. How to break this cycle? Well, for sure sales/scripts do need to happen (whether on Afrezza or a different venture) because $$ needs to happen. One route (assuming success!) is that at some point in the future, MNKD does start generating significant revenue. Foreign deal, royalty payments, skyrocketing scripts or what. Rather than a desperate move like a R/S, they initiate a buyback program to reduce the float. This would simultaneously remove the leverage for the short cycle, and provide a bullish indicator to market. Then of course, there's those other routes - mergers, etc. But at this stage, getting a good agreement seems like a fantasy, and after SNY experience, imagine (and rightfully so), mgt and board are not feeling the love and trust. Don't know what restrictions there are for a biopharma co like Mannkind to fill prescriptions by mail, but can they fill orders via USPS? There's probably a lot being overlooked here, but just a thought. They already have Mannkind Cares that seems to navigate the insurance maze for the patients that call. What price could they charge and come out the same or better than they do now with PBMs cutting into their profits. I'm pretty sure I'm about to get schooled big time, but I'm already in pain, what's a little more.
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Ho-Hum
Nov 30, 2016 11:46:45 GMT -5
via mobile
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 30, 2016 11:46:45 GMT -5
Call me jaded, but I still suspect that even sales/scripts will not lift the boat because the market is effectively broken. At least not directly. The amount of bashing throughout social media and the articles is bizarre for a company of this profile. As is the shorting at this level. The behaviour with this stock doesn't map to reality. How to break this cycle? Well, for sure sales/scripts do need to happen (whether on Afrezza or a different venture) because $$ needs to happen. One route (assuming success!) is that at some point in the future, MNKD does start generating significant revenue. Foreign deal, royalty payments, skyrocketing scripts or what. Rather than a desperate move like a R/S, they initiate a buyback program to reduce the float. This would simultaneously remove the leverage for the short cycle, and provide a bullish indicator to market. Then of course, there's those other routes - mergers, etc. But at this stage, getting a good agreement seems like a fantasy, and after SNY experience, imagine (and rightfully so), mgt and board are not feeling the love and trust. Don't know what restrictions there are for a biopharma co like Mannkind to fill prescriptions by mail, but can they fill orders via USPS? There's probably a lot being overlooked here, but just a thought. They already have Mannkind Cares that seems to navigate the insurance maze for the patients that call. What price could they charge and come out the same or better than they do now with PBMs cutting into their profits. I'm pretty sure I'm about to get schooled big time, but I'm already in pain, what's a little more. I was thinking that same thing last week:-)
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Post by mnholdem on Nov 30, 2016 11:47:41 GMT -5
Call me jaded, but I still suspect that even sales/scripts will not lift the boat because the market is effectively broken. At least not directly. The amount of bashing throughout social media and the articles is bizarre for a company of this profile. As is the shorting at this level. The behaviour with this stock doesn't map to reality. How to break this cycle? Well, for sure sales/scripts do need to happen (whether on Afrezza or a different venture) because $$ needs to happen. One route (assuming success!) is that at some point in the future, MNKD does start generating significant revenue. Foreign deal, royalty payments, skyrocketing scripts or what. Rather than a desperate move like a R/S, they initiate a buyback program to reduce the float. This would simultaneously remove the leverage for the short cycle, and provide a bullish indicator to market. Then of course, there's those other routes - mergers, etc. But at this stage, getting a good agreement seems like a fantasy, and after SNY experience, imagine (and rightfully so), mgt and board are not feeling the love and trust. The same holds true of a company called Pumatrix, which is very similar to MannKind in that it is developing inhaled medicine using a particle that is remarkable similar to Technosphere. They have 3 products in their pipeline (COPD, asthma, cystic fibrosis) from pre-IND to Phase 2 and financing to take them out to mid-2017. Even the stock (PULM) price has also plummeted from $1.76 to $0.61 over the past year. It's as if the market has put a target on new pulmonary delivery systems. Considering the size of the market for drugs that must be administered via injection - multiple $billions at stake, not including support industries - the reason behind the bashing of new and potentially disruptive drug technologies is perhaps not so far-fetched.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2016 12:10:15 GMT -5
While the needle mafia has the financial resources and influence to crush pulmonary delivery companies, at some point the situation will change. Hopefully MannKind can withstand the onslaught from big pharma and Wall Street.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2016 13:17:04 GMT -5
By the end of Q1 '17 we should start to see more growth in NRx and TRx. If not by then, I suspect that the chances of this team with given resources will not be able to make Afrezza commercially viable in the US. With a core group of 40 sales people who have been on the streets for some time, sample packs that are now properly configured to allow patients plenty of runway to titrate and learn to use Afrezza properly along with the Mannkind Cares program that helps patients & doc offices with Prior Auth and the FEV1 / Spirometry issue apparently being managed more effectively, the foundation is in place to move the needle forward.
No, we won't have a salesforce of hundreds to sell Afrezza but with the 40 we have along with the diabetes nurse educators and new hires, it should be enough to have steady modest growth. At the Touchpoint Solutions website it looks like several of the sales jobs that were posted are no longer listed so I will assume the territories are filled. When I checked yesterday, there were only 2 sales positions available. The new hires should be able to get up to speed in 4-6 weeks. I know Mike said 3-6 months to ramp but given the Mannkind training department has put several sales teams through the class, the training process should be more efficient, logistics of sales collateral and methodology for Mannkind Cares / Prior Auth and FEV1 in place means less or no glitches new hires have to deal with and a bunch of seasoned Mannkind sales people and nurse educators to help the new hires ramp quicker. Given how good Afrezza is I think if no sales growth by end of Q1 then we all have to wonder what is going on. While the company is still under- resourced, there are enough tools to produce some sales growth and if this can be validated, share price will start to take care of itself and then the operation can scale more rapidly.
Side note - with the ACA apparently going away, does anyone think that the new program that will be implemented will allow for Medicare to seek bids on Rx products? Of all the levers to pull to provide health care for the affected patient population, this to me would seem like one of the levers that could have a significant impact fairly quickly.
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Post by mannmade on Nov 30, 2016 13:28:37 GMT -5
Until the next quarterly cc, which I estimate to be around February 6, 2016, the only reasonable expectation we have for MannKind news is the following:
a. announcement of a RLS milestone payment, (and perhaps more details on the relationship) b. an anticipated meaningful uptick in weekly script counts (what s meaningful I will leave up to each individual.) Also let us not forget the holidays and yes the winter weather back east and in the mid west will likely slow scripts until mid February or so if history is any predictor of the future... c. start of pediatric studies
In addition to the above which I also expect to be discussed in the 4th Q CC we should hear more details on the following as well in February:
d. hiring of new staff reps e. announcement on details of commercial campaign
And really not much else as far as I can see. Everything else is purely speculation, some more so than other. Will the above be enough to move the stock back above $1.00pps for 10 consecutive days before delisting? I believe it will if scripts pick up a bit and I think they will, but that again is my personal opinion.
The purpose of my stating the obvious above is that this will be another "quite period" of sorts and so the stock will likely sit where it is with no big movement one way or the other. And as investors we should now have a short term horizon that looks for possible upward movement beginning somewhere around July thru November 2017 when we should have more positive news as follows:
a. Uptick of weekly scripts b. Update on pediatric trials c. Update/decision on label change d. EpiHale updates/Partner
All else in mho is too speculative for discussion at this time...
One last thing, in addition to the above, even though I consider it to be quite speculative, do not underestimate the value of a cleaned up balance sheet, such that an uptick in scripts may not need to be as great as it would have been before the cleaned up balance sheet to make MannKind look attractive to new investors.
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Ho-Hum
Nov 30, 2016 13:35:12 GMT -5
Post by sophie on Nov 30, 2016 13:35:12 GMT -5
Considering the size of the market for drugs that must be administered via injection - multiple $billions at stake, not including support industries - the reason behind the bashing of new and potentially disruptive drug technologies is perhaps not so far-fetched.
The bigger concern to you is the stock price and not the hundreds- thousands of physicians that have chosen not to prescribe Afrezza? Or are you saying that needle companies are influencing doctors not to prescribe?
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Post by rossomalley on Nov 30, 2016 15:35:42 GMT -5
Until the next quarterly cc, which I estimate to be around February 6, 2016, the only reasonable expectation we have for MannKind news is the following: a. announcement of a RLS milestone payment, (and perhaps more details on the relationship) b. an anticipated meaningful uptick in weekly script counts (what s meaningful I will leave up to each individual.) Also let us not forget the holidays and yes the winter weather back east and in the mid west will likely slow scripts until mid February or so if history is any predictor of the future... c. start of pediatric studies In addition to the above which I also expect to be discussed in the 4th Q CC we should hear more details on the following as well in February: d. hiring of new staff reps e. announcement on details of commercial campaign And really not much else as far as I can see. Everything else is purely speculation, some more so than other. Will the above be enough to move the stock back above $1.00pps for 10 consecutive days before delisting? I believe it will if scripts pick up a bit and I think they will, but that again is my personal opinion. The purpose of my stating the obvious above is that this will be another "quite period" of sorts and so the stock will likely sit where it is with no big movement one way or the other. And as investors we should now have a short term horizon that looks for possible upward movement beginning somewhere around July thru November 2017 when we should have more positive news as follows: a. Uptick of weekly scripts b. Update on pediatric trials c. Update/decision on label change d. EpiHale updates/Partner All else in mho is too speculative for discussion at this time... One last thing, in addition to the above, even though I consider it to be quite speculative, do not underestimate the value of a cleaned up balance sheet, such that an uptick in scripts may not need to be as great as it would have been before the cleaned up balance sheet to make MannKind look attractive to new investors. Sale of Valencia property might also be of interest.
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Ho-Hum
Dec 1, 2016 11:59:25 GMT -5
Post by BlueCat on Dec 1, 2016 11:59:25 GMT -5
Call me jaded, but I still suspect that even sales/scripts will not lift the boat because the market is effectively broken. At least not directly. The amount of bashing throughout social media and the articles is bizarre for a company of this profile. As is the shorting at this level. The behaviour with this stock doesn't map to reality. How to break this cycle? Well, for sure sales/scripts do need to happen (whether on Afrezza or a different venture) because $$ needs to happen. One route (assuming success!) is that at some point in the future, MNKD does start generating significant revenue. Foreign deal, royalty payments, skyrocketing scripts or what. Rather than a desperate move like a R/S, they initiate a buyback program to reduce the float. This would simultaneously remove the leverage for the short cycle, and provide a bullish indicator to market. Then of course, there's those other routes - mergers, etc. But at this stage, getting a good agreement seems like a fantasy, and after SNY experience, imagine (and rightfully so), mgt and board are not feeling the love and trust. Don't know what restrictions there are for a biopharma co like Mannkind to fill prescriptions by mail, but can they fill orders via USPS? There's probably a lot being overlooked here, but just a thought. They already have Mannkind Cares that seems to navigate the insurance maze for the patients that call. What price could they charge and come out the same or better than they do now with PBMs cutting into their profits. I'm pretty sure I'm about to get schooled big time, but I'm already in pain, what's a little more. Better yet - Start a media conversation about problems at the FDA and drug pricing, offer it online from a pharmacy in Canada or Mexico, and watch the orders start streaming in ... LOL.
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Ho-Hum
Dec 1, 2016 20:42:58 GMT -5
Post by gamblerjag on Dec 1, 2016 20:42:58 GMT -5
Until the next quarterly cc, which I estimate to be around February 6, 2016, the only reasonable expectation we have for MannKind news is the following: a. announcement of a RLS milestone payment, (and perhaps more details on the relationship) b. an anticipated meaningful uptick in weekly script counts (what s meaningful I will leave up to each individual.) Also let us not forget the holidays and yes the winter weather back east and in the mid west will likely slow scripts until mid February or so if history is any predictor of the future... c. start of pediatric studies In addition to the above which I also expect to be discussed in the 4th Q CC we should hear more details on the following as well in February: d. hiring of new staff reps e. announcement on details of commercial campaign And really not much else as far as I can see. Everything else is purely speculation, some more so than other. Will the above be enough to move the stock back above $1.00pps for 10 consecutive days before delisting? I believe it will if scripts pick up a bit and I think they will, but that again is my personal opinion. The purpose of my stating the obvious above is that this will be another "quite period" of sorts and so the stock will likely sit where it is with no big movement one way or the other. And as investors we should now have a short term horizon that looks for possible upward movement beginning somewhere around July thru November 2017 when we should have more positive news as follows: a. Uptick of weekly scripts b. Update on pediatric trials c. Update/decision on label change d. EpiHale updates/Partner All else in mho is too speculative for discussion at this time... One last thing, in addition to the above, even though I consider it to be quite speculative, do not underestimate the value of a cleaned up balance sheet, such that an uptick in scripts may not need to be as great as it would have been before the cleaned up balance sheet to make MannKind look attractive to new investors.
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Ho-Hum
Dec 1, 2016 20:43:35 GMT -5
Post by gamblerjag on Dec 1, 2016 20:43:35 GMT -5
Until the next quarterly cc, which I estimate to be around February 6, 2016, the only reasonable expectation we have for MannKind news is the following: a. announcement of a RLS milestone payment, (and perhaps more details on the relationship) b. an anticipated meaningful uptick in weekly script counts (what s meaningful I will leave up to each individual.) Also let us not forget the holidays and yes the winter weather back east and in the mid west will likely slow scripts until mid February or so if history is any predictor of the future... c. start of pediatric studies In addition to the above which I also expect to be discussed in the 4th Q CC we should hear more details on the following as well in February: d. hiring of new staff reps e. announcement on details of commercial campaign And really not much else as far as I can see. Everything else is purely speculation, some more so than other. Will the above be enough to move the stock back above $1.00pps for 10 consecutive days before delisting? I believe it will if scripts pick up a bit and I think they will, but that again is my personal opinion. The purpose of my stating the obvious above is that this will be another "quite period" of sorts and so the stock will likely sit where it is with no big movement one way or the other. And as investors we should now have a short term horizon that looks for possible upward movement beginning somewhere around July thru November 2017 when we should have more positive news as follows: a. Uptick of weekly scripts b. Update on pediatric trials c. Update/decision on label change d. EpiHale updates/Partner All else in mho is too speculative for discussion at this time... One last thing, in addition to the above, even though I consider it to be quite speculative, do not underestimate the value of a cleaned up balance sheet, such that an uptick in scripts may not need to be as great as it would have been before the cleaned up balance sheet to make MannKind look attractive to new investors.
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Ho-Hum
Dec 1, 2016 20:46:28 GMT -5
Post by gamblerjag on Dec 1, 2016 20:46:28 GMT -5
Will the above be enough to move the stock back above $1.00pps for 10 consecutive days before delisting? I believe it will if scripts pick up a bit and I think they will, but that again is my personal opinion. Hey Mannmade.. Remember there is almost a always a 6mos extension when requested. so where I don't think being over 1.00 for 10 days by March will be an issue.. realistically after the 6 mos. extension.. we would have until Sept. 2017. Thanks for the VDEX news.
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Ho-Hum
Dec 1, 2016 22:00:51 GMT -5
Post by mnkdfann on Dec 1, 2016 22:00:51 GMT -5
Will the above be enough to move the stock back above $1.00pps for 10 consecutive days before delisting? I believe it will if scripts pick up a bit and I think they will, but that again is my personal opinion. Hey Mannmade.. Remember there is almost a always a 6mos extension when requested. so where I don't think being over 1.00 for 10 days by March will be an issue.. realistically after the 6 mos. extension.. we would have until Sept. 2017. Thanks for the VDEX news. The last I heard, the six month extension depends on listing factors other than share price and Mannkind did not qualify for the extension. Has that changed?
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