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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 5, 2019 16:34:34 GMT -5
When considering cash flow break-even ... we can include container shipment revenues.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by letitride on Oct 5, 2019 16:57:20 GMT -5
If MC continues to do what he does I see break even in 2020 as a high probability. Cost are going down,sales are going up and MC is producing new deals every quarter. You need to consider what MC is capable of putting together. Not just linear sales growth and cash burn.
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 5, 2019 17:00:02 GMT -5
letitride - Don't worry about me. I analyze and consider all options possible. AND, that's why I keep adding shares.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 5, 2019 17:13:09 GMT -5
It’s not the correct mathematical term but it made my point in terms the average MNKD investor will understand. Your response seems deliberately obtuse. Since they’ve been operating for over 2 years now, if VDEX is getting 25 new users on Afrezza every week and they are truly getting the retention rates they claim 🙈, then every week now they should be adding roughly another 23.75 scripts to the TRx either in RRx or (after a year) the NRx. Obviously that’s not happening or we would have TRx in thousands. The numbers show clearly that VDEX is lying about their retention rate. If you want to pledge your shares to, and propagandize for, such people, that’s your business, but I think most MNKD longs would not. There a some errors in that post. The source of the information is Mike, and it was " after 4 years we see <25 scripts a month out of their two centers", not 25 NRx per week as in the post above. VDEX claim a drop out rate of less that 20% so a retention rate of better than 80% (I would expect within a couple of percent). Once you correct for those errors the picture changes. While we are at it; the four years mentioned by Mike is a complete fiction (to be polite) since at the time of Mike's post the first VDEX clinic had been open for less than three years, and the second clinic had been open less that two years. No idea where Mike got four years from. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 5, 2019 17:42:11 GMT -5
Well I guess Mike C was incorrect and should have used 5 years instead. Let's not be picky. All I know is that script counts are going up and Brazil sounds very happy.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by letitride on Oct 5, 2019 17:45:39 GMT -5
Dont worry Be Happy! something about the Island life.
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Post by rossomalley on Oct 5, 2019 18:21:44 GMT -5
It’s not the correct mathematical term but it made my point in terms the average MNKD investor will understand. Your response seems deliberately obtuse. Since they’ve been operating for over 2 years now, if VDEX is getting 25 new users on Afrezza every week and they are truly getting the retention rates they claim 🙈, then every week now they should be adding roughly another 23.75 scripts to the TRx either in RRx or (after a year) the NRx. Obviously that’s not happening or we would have TRx in thousands. The numbers show clearly that VDEX is lying about their retention rate. If you want to pledge your shares to, and propagandize for, such people, that’s your business, but I think most MNKD longs would not. There a some errors in that post. The source of the information is Mike, and it was " after 4 years we see <25 scripts a month out of their two centers", not 25 NRx per week as in the post above. VDEX claim a drop out rate of less that 20% so a retention rate of better than 80% (I would expect within a couple of percent). Once you correct for those errors the picture changes. While we are at it; the four years mentioned by Mike is a complete fiction (to be polite) since at the time of Mike's post the first VDEX clinic had been open for less than three years, and the second clinic had been open less that two years. No idea where Mike got four years from. Yet the problem with the numbers remains. VDEX was indeed claiming 95% “retention” and not that long ago, but if now they’ve realized that this is patently absurd and they’ve modified it to a still unlikely ‘more than 80%’ that’s moving in the right direction. It still means we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month. You can quibble with Mike’s wording all you want, but it’s irrelevant at this point since no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years. Once you get 3 months out you should see those NRx’s show up as RRx. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week and you’re seeing 80%+ retention, every week now our TRx should be going up by 20 JUST FOR VDEX ORIGINATED SCRIPTS. That’s a bump of 80+/month and 960+/year. So either a) VDEX is not really talking about retention in any meaningful sense; b) VDEX is lying 🤥; or c) Symphony is hiding our true weekly TRx as part of the Great Conspiracy. Which do you think it is? (And when did you become an apologist for VDEX/HFM?) |
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 5, 2019 20:09:06 GMT -5
There a some errors in that post. The source of the information is Mike, and it was " after 4 years we see <25 scripts a month out of their two centers", not 25 NRx per week as in the post above. VDEX claim a drop out rate of less that 20% so a retention rate of better than 80% (I would expect within a couple of percent). Once you correct for those errors the picture changes. While we are at it; the four years mentioned by Mike is a complete fiction (to be polite) since at the time of Mike's post the first VDEX clinic had been open for less than three years, and the second clinic had been open less that two years. No idea where Mike got four years from. Yet the problem with the numbers remains. VDEX was indeed claiming 95% “retention” and not that long ago, but if now they’ve realized that this is patently absurd and they’ve modified it to a still unlikely ‘more than 80%’ that’s moving in the right direction. It still means we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month. You can quibble with Mike’s wording all you want, but it’s irrelevant at this point since no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years. Once you get 3 months out you should see those NRx’s show up as RRx. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week and you’re seeing 80%+ retention, every week now our TRx should be going up by 20 JUST FOR VDEX ORIGINATED SCRIPTS. That’s a bump of 80+/month and 960+/year. So either a) VDEX is not really talking about retention in any meaningful sense; b) VDEX is lying 🤥; or c) Symphony is hiding our true weekly TRx as part of the Great Conspiracy. Which do you think it is? (And when did you become an apologist for VDEX/HFM?) Why did Mike stop at four years and not go for ten years when he was making numbers up? Either he doesn't know anything about VDEX's history, he is lying  , or he doesn't know what he is talking about. Which do you think it is? So picking this apart the details... no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years - I will disagree  Two years ago they only had the one clinic, that is hardly "fully operational". we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month - There are two issues here; firstly I do not believe VDEX have ever given those numbers so the only source is Mike who said 25 TRx and not NRx across two clinics per month (12 or 13 TRx per clinic average) so I am not sure how you arrive at 80 NRx per month for all VDEX. That leads to the second issue which is that we cannot split NRx out of the TRx for those numbers other than from what we are told by VDEX or Mannkind. For all we know VDEX could very well be hitting these numbers and retention elsewhere could be bad. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week - You keep coming back to this. What is the source, or this just a random example? My guess is that you are basing this on Mike's statement, but that is that there a total of 25 prescriptions per month across two clinics, that's TRx and nothing to do with 25 NRx. What do I think it is? I think that the numbers you are quoting are wrong because I am taking Mike at his word since this is the only data point we have. If Mannkind or VDEX want to open the books then we can gather more data, but right now it's just Mike's " <25 scripts a month out of their two centers". I am not an apologist for VDEX, I simply think your numbers are wrong. |
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Post by rossomalley on Oct 5, 2019 21:21:27 GMT -5
Yet the problem with the numbers remains. VDEX was indeed claiming 95% “retention” and not that long ago, but if now they’ve realized that this is patently absurd and they’ve modified it to a still unlikely ‘more than 80%’ that’s moving in the right direction. It still means we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month. You can quibble with Mike’s wording all you want, but it’s irrelevant at this point since no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years. Once you get 3 months out you should see those NRx’s show up as RRx. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week and you’re seeing 80%+ retention, every week now our TRx should be going up by 20 JUST FOR VDEX ORIGINATED SCRIPTS. That’s a bump of 80+/month and 960+/year. So either a) VDEX is not really talking about retention in any meaningful sense; b) VDEX is lying 🤥; or c) Symphony is hiding our true weekly TRx as part of the Great Conspiracy. Which do you think it is? (And when did you become an apologist for VDEX/HFM?) Why did Mike stop at four years and not go for ten years when he was making numbers up? Either he doesn't know anything about VDEX's history, he is lying , or he doesn't know what he is talking about. Which do you think it is? So picking this apart the details... no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years - I will disagree Two years ago they only had the one clinic, that is hardly "fully operational". we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month - There are two issues here; firstly I do not believe VDEX have ever given those numbers so the only source is Mike who said 25 TRx and not NRx across two clinics per month (12 or 13 TRx per clinic average) so I am not sure how you arrive at 80 NRx per month for all VDEX. That leads to the second issue which is that we cannot split NRx out of the TRx for those numbers other than from what we are told by VDEX or Mannkind. For all we know VDEX could very well be hitting these numbers and retention elsewhere could be bad. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week - You keep coming back to this. What is the source, or this just a random example? My guess is that you are basing this on Mike's statement, but that is that there a total of 25 prescriptions per month across two clinics, that's TRx and nothing to do with 25 NRx. What do I think it is? I think that the numbers you are quoting are wrong because I am taking Mike at his word since this is the only data point we have. If Mannkind or VDEX want to open the books then we can gather more data, but right now it's just Mike's " <25 scripts a month out of their two centers". I am not an apologist for VDEX, I simply think your numbers are wrong. Actually, if you had bothered to look back through the thread you would have seen that the assumption of the 25 being all NRx comes from HFM’s propaganda point man on PB, Greystoned. My original assumption had been that this was max 25 TRx/week from VDEX. However, as you surely must realize, that assumption is much much worse for VDEX. If you think that with 6 clinics they are producing 25 or fewer TOTAL Rx per week then it is clear that the VDEX is a total failure, both in terms of NRx and RRx. When we consider that even that paltry number is dependent upon a massive subsidy from MNKD (and its shareholders) in the form of the discount programs, we get a picture of a failed business plan that is a net loss for MannKind. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 6, 2019 1:05:49 GMT -5
As I said before ... this discussion should end because it doesn't mean a thing.  Maybe for shorts trying to downgrade MNKD shares ... but, no. Numbers change constantly ... info changes constantly ... Keep abreast of current info and you'll be a lot happier. OR better yet ... buy more MNKD shares for eternal bliss !!! But, that's mytakeonit |
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Post by longliner on Oct 6, 2019 3:20:21 GMT -5
Yet the problem with the numbers remains. VDEX was indeed claiming 95% “retention” and not that long ago, but if now they’ve realized that this is patently absurd and they’ve modified it to a still unlikely ‘more than 80%’ that’s moving in the right direction. It still means we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month. You can quibble with Mike’s wording all you want, but it’s irrelevant at this point since no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years. Once you get 3 months out you should see those NRx’s show up as RRx. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week and you’re seeing 80%+ retention, every week now our TRx should be going up by 20 JUST FOR VDEX ORIGINATED SCRIPTS. That’s a bump of 80+/month and 960+/year. So either a) VDEX is not really talking about retention in any meaningful sense; b) VDEX is lying 🤥; or c) Symphony is hiding our true weekly TRx as part of the Great Conspiracy. Which do you think it is? (And when did you become an apologist for VDEX/HFM?) Why did Mike stop at four years and not go for ten years when he was making numbers up? Either he doesn't know anything about VDEX's history, he is lying , or he doesn't know what he is talking about. Which do you think it is? So picking this apart the details... no one disagrees VDEX has been fully operational for at least two years - I will disagree Two years ago they only had the one clinic, that is hardly "fully operational". we would see VDEX alone add more than 80 new Rx to the TRx every month - There are two issues here; firstly I do not believe VDEX have ever given those numbers so the only source is Mike who said 25 TRx and not NRx across two clinics per month (12 or 13 TRx per clinic average) so I am not sure how you arrive at 80 NRx per month for all VDEX. That leads to the second issue which is that we cannot split NRx out of the TRx for those numbers other than from what we are told by VDEX or Mannkind. For all we know VDEX could very well be hitting these numbers and retention elsewhere could be bad. If you’re putting 25 new patients on Afrezza every week - You keep coming back to this. What is the source, or this just a random example? My guess is that you are basing this on Mike's statement, but that is that there a total of 25 prescriptions per month across two clinics, that's TRx and nothing to do with 25 NRx. What do I think it is? I think that the numbers you are quoting are wrong because I am taking Mike at his word since this is the only data point we have. If Mannkind or VDEX want to open the books then we can gather more data, but right now it's just Mike's " <25 scripts a month out of their two centers". I am not an apologist for VDEX, I simply think your numbers are wrong. Assuming VDEX ever offer any numbers, all the words you strung together might be meaningful.  |
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Post by lakers on Oct 6, 2019 5:19:58 GMT -5
MC explanation on scripts increase: ‘Yes we retrained our reps on some key areas for improving our marketing messages over past two weeks and focused them even more on priority accounts. We see when they come out of the field for vacation or training scripts slow and when they are out there they grow. Afrezza is very responsive to promotion. We have pretty much a full team now so Q4 should show you what MannKind can do with a fully focused field team executing the right message at the the right frequency.’ stocktwits.com/lungbiotech/message/179612718 |
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Post by letitride on Oct 6, 2019 8:19:36 GMT -5
Ah ha now I see where the problem has been. Training is what you get when your out there getting it done, and vacation is what you get when you die. So ideally were going to have alot more training and alot less death. Lets Go!
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 6, 2019 9:59:40 GMT -5
Actually, if you had bothered to look back through the thread you would have seen that the assumption of the 25 being all NRx comes from HFM’s propaganda point man on PB, Greystoned. My original assumption had been that this was max 25 TRx/week from VDEX. However, as you surely must realize, that assumption is much much worse for VDEX. If you think that with 6 clinics they are producing 25 or fewer TOTAL Rx per week then it is clear that the VDEX is a total failure, both in terms of NRx and RRx. When we consider that even that paltry number is dependent upon a massive subsidy from MNKD (and its shareholders) in the form of the discount programs, we get a picture of a failed business plan that is a net loss for MannKind. Actually that is not what you will find at all. Search wgreysone's posts for NRx and the only relevant hit you get is this - Secondly, you may not know that NRX/RRX ratio would be about 1 to 3 for 100% retention rate. So if Vdex could do 25 NRx per week, RRx number would be about 75. That's not a claim of 25 NRx, it's an example calculation. I seriously doubt that he has any better source than the rest of us. That leaves the only direct number out there as Mike's <25 TRx per month. If Mike is to be believed then your original assumption is correct except that it was per month rather than per week. I am working from Mike's number as well since there is no VDEX sourced number. This is getting muddled now between weeks and months, - Mike's figures are for just two clinics, not for six, and per month. As to 25 TRx a week from 6 clinics being a failure as far as Afrezza is concerned I would agree, however we have no idea what six clinics are producing since nobody on either side is talking. The idea that VDEX is dependent on Mannkind's discount programs is rather odd. VDEX are not involved in the pharmacy side so what Afrezza sells for is not material to them other than that it it is prohibitively expensive retention dies. However, that would be true for all Afrezza sales. As it is everyone in the insulin market has a discount program so Mannkind cannot afford to stand on the sidelines on that one. Longliner's comment really hits the nail on the head, at this point we don't know the numbers or the breakdown. And while he thinks it is up to VDEX to provide numbers I would point out that there are two parties to this and Mannkind can equally release numbers (actually they already have with Mike's original comment, how about an update?) |
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Post by longliner on Oct 6, 2019 13:23:12 GMT -5
Actually, if you had bothered to look back through the thread you would have seen that the assumption of the 25 being all NRx comes from HFM’s propaganda point man on PB, Greystoned. My original assumption had been that this was max 25 TRx/week from VDEX. However, as you surely must realize, that assumption is much much worse for VDEX. If you think that with 6 clinics they are producing 25 or fewer TOTAL Rx per week then it is clear that the VDEX is a total failure, both in terms of NRx and RRx. When we consider that even that paltry number is dependent upon a massive subsidy from MNKD (and its shareholders) in the form of the discount programs, we get a picture of a failed business plan that is a net loss for MannKind. Actually that is not what you will find at all. Search wgreysone's posts for NRx and the only relevant hit you get is this - Secondly, you may not know that NRX/RRX ratio would be about 1 to 3 for 100% retention rate. So if Vdex could do 25 NRx per week, RRx number would be about 75. That's not a claim of 25 NRx, it's an example calculation. I seriously doubt that he has any better source than the rest of us. That leaves the only direct number out there as Mike's <25 TRx per month. If Mike is to be believed then your original assumption is correct except that it was per month rather than per week. I am working from Mike's number as well since there is no VDEX sourced number. This is getting muddled now between weeks and months, - Mike's figures are for just two clinics, not for six, and per month. As to 25 TRx a week from 6 clinics being a failure as far as Afrezza is concerned I would agree, however we have no idea what six clinics are producing since nobody on either side is talking. The idea that VDEX is dependent on Mannkind's discount programs is rather odd. VDEX are not involved in the pharmacy side so what Afrezza sells for is not material to them other than that it it is prohibitively expensive retention dies. However, that would be true for all Afrezza sales. As it is everyone in the insulin market has a discount program so Mannkind cannot afford to stand on the sidelines on that one. Longliner's comment really hits the nail on the head, at this point we don't know the numbers or the breakdown. And while he thinks it is up to VDEX to provide numbers I would point out that there are two parties to this and Mannkind can equally release numbers (actually they already have with Mike's original comment, how about an update?) Mannkind is not expected to release data on UTHR, RLS or for that matter anyone but MNKD............... Why would VDEX not be capable of, or choose not to release their own numbers, given their numbers are the basis of the entire VDEX claim?  I am for anything that increases sales, however, this whole bit seems a distraction. (But....sales went up) I continue to believe area exclusivity is the rub, without it VDEX falls, with it shareholders get less in a buyout and any potential partner receive less. JMHO (Note: my opinions typically tend toward wrong)  |
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, or he doesn't know what he is talking about. Which do you think it is?
Two years ago they only had the one clinic, that is hardly "fully operational".
Maybe for shorts trying to downgrade MNKD shares ... but, no. Numbers change constantly ... info changes constantly ... Keep abreast of current info and you'll be a lot happier. OR better yet ... buy more MNKD shares for eternal bliss !!!
