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Post by rossomalley on Oct 6, 2019 15:38:25 GMT -5
Actually, if you had bothered to look back through the thread you would have seen that the assumption of the 25 being all NRx comes from HFM’s propaganda point man on PB, Greystoned. My original assumption had been that this was max 25 TRx/week from VDEX. However, as you surely must realize, that assumption is much much worse for VDEX. If you think that with 6 clinics they are producing 25 or fewer TOTAL Rx per week then it is clear that the VDEX is a total failure, both in terms of NRx and RRx. When we consider that even that paltry number is dependent upon a massive subsidy from MNKD (and its shareholders) in the form of the discount programs, we get a picture of a failed business plan that is a net loss for MannKind. Actually that is not what you will find at all. Search wgreysone's posts for NRx and the only relevant hit you get is this - Secondly, you may not know that NRX/RRX ratio would be about 1 to 3 for 100% retention rate. So if Vdex could do 25 NRx per week, RRx number would be about 75. That's not a claim of 25 NRx, it's an example calculation. I seriously doubt that he has any better source than the rest of us. That leaves the only direct number out there as Mike's <25 TRx per month. If Mike is to be believed then your original assumption is correct except that it was per month rather than per week. I am working from Mike's number as well since there is no VDEX sourced number. This is getting muddled now between weeks and months, - Mike's figures are for just two clinics, not for six, and per month. As to 25 TRx a week from 6 clinics being a failure as far as Afrezza is concerned I would agree, however we have no idea what six clinics are producing since nobody on either side is talking. The idea that VDEX is dependent on Mannkind's discount programs is rather odd. VDEX are not involved in the pharmacy side so what Afrezza sells for is not material to them other than that it it is prohibitively expensive retention dies. However, that would be true for all Afrezza sales. As it is everyone in the insulin market has a discount program so Mannkind cannot afford to stand on the sidelines on that one. Longliner's comment really hits the nail on the head, at this point we don't know the numbers or the breakdown. And while he thinks it is up to VDEX to provide numbers I would point out that there are two parties to this and Mannkind can equally release numbers (actually they already have with Mike's original comment, how about an update?) You’re correct that it would be best to have VDEX open their books so we can evaluate their performance with precision. Obviously they don’t want to do that since it would destroy any confidence anyone had in them as a solution to MannKind’s retention problems. In my comments above I have been happy to work with any version of Mike’s numbers. They all point to VDEX being a failure at getting paying customers on Afrezza and retaining them on Afrezza. I was happy to work with Greystoned’s assumption that it was 25 NRx/week but your intervention makes the case against VDEX even more devastating. If they are producing LESS THAN 25 TOTAL Rx PER MONTH, using Greystoned’s formula of 3:1 RRx:NRx, we have VDEX adding hardly more than 1 NRx/month per clinic. Even if the number represents only their two oldest (and presumably most productive) clinics, as your pedantic reading of Mike’s comment would have it, that would still be a dismal 3 TRx and <1 NRx for each of these two clinics per week. And Mike made that comment only a couple months ago, so your complaining about needing an update seems unlikely to change this picture substantially. Now, with reference to how their business model relies on subsidies from MannKind (and us shareholders), the point isn’t about how VDEX is making money, it’s about how little money they bring to MannKind. Because most of their patients are using heavily discounted subscriptions, including the loss making DTC, VDEX doesn’t add much to MNKD revenues. And one wonders what will happen to those few patients they have on Afrezza when the DTC program ends in January and other discounts come to end. I think the VDEX business model turned out to be a colossal failure (possibly because of overall slow adoption of Afrezza) and the owners of the scheme decided to try to salvage something from it with their HFM pressure campaign, egged on now by the notorious short seller Kovacocky who presumably has a different set of reasons for it. But whether that speculation is true or not, the data we have at this time points clearly to VDEX being of very little help in getting paying customers on Afrezza, and not being good at retaining them on it, at least not in numbers that help out MannKind’s bottom line in any significant way. |
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Post by sweedee79 on Oct 6, 2019 17:13:44 GMT -5
At some point Vdex will show it's numbers.... And when they do certain people are going to find a way to discredit them anyway...because they don't want to believe the truth..
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Post by theebavarian on Oct 6, 2019 17:27:25 GMT -5
At some point Vdex will show it's numbers.... And when they do certain people are going to find a way to discredit them anyway...because they don't want to believe the truth.. What is "the truth"? |
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Post by georgethenight2 on Oct 6, 2019 17:38:14 GMT -5
Regardless of whose opinion is right, I think we can all agree that Friday's numbers were AWESOME and if this any indication for future numbers, which I believe they are, lets stay positive.
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Post by Omega on Oct 6, 2019 17:55:49 GMT -5
I prefer Facts to 'Truth'
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 6, 2019 18:17:53 GMT -5
...Even if the number represents only their two oldest (and presumably most productive) clinics, as your pedantic reading of Mike’s comment would have it, that would still be a dismal 3 TRx and <1 NRx for each of these two clinics per week. And Mike made that comment only a couple months ago, so your complaining about needing an update seems unlikely to change this picture substantially.... Bear in mind that Mike said this, " after 4 years we see <25 scripts a month out of their two centers" and as you pointed out that was only three months ago. At the point though there were six VDEX clinics, not two. I hadn't really thought about that before, but now it looks like Mike was using old numbers from when they only had two clinics. Most likely this was from when VDEX had last approached them and Mannkind pulled the data from their own records. Mike just regurgitated it because it fitted his argument even if it was inaccurate. That means this is a complete lottery and we can have no idea what the current TRx or NRx for VDEX are with any sort of accuracy. |
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Post by radgray68 on Oct 6, 2019 18:39:49 GMT -5
Wow, I guess it's not as obvious to some as it was to me. There's something y'all need to know.
It was all over when the FDA wrote to Mannkind and said Vdex does not respect our rules, are you going to be affiliated with them? Mannkind smartly said "Uh....."Nooooooo." And that, as they say, is that. Never the two shall meet.....ever again.
The end.
Now, moderators, would it be possible to please move all these Vdex posts out of the Symphony script thread to any of the numerous existing Vdex threads?
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Post by awesomo on Oct 6, 2019 18:59:02 GMT -5
Regardless of whose opinion is right, I think we can all agree that Friday's numbers were AWESOME and if this any indication for future numbers, which I believe they are, lets stay positive. Awesome in comparison to recent weeks, but people were calling > 1000 scripts in Q1-Q2. We are still way behind the curve, and we need to see these numbers consistently before calling it a trend. |
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Post by georgethenight2 on Oct 6, 2019 19:07:15 GMT -5
If we continue to have the same growth rate (5.24 scripts/week) as we had 2018, the year end script projection is 940. Even if there will be the year end- year beginning drop as we had before, still TRx will be much more than 800. With all the DTC and ads, we expect to have much more than 940 by the year end. Furthermore, with 800 scripts, the shorts will not be toasted. I do not know if your inaccurate projection is intentional or not. I'm not sure what you mean. I am saying that scripts will be tracking w ell over 800 by EOY, by your own projections, you are saying 940, what is inaccurate? It sounds like we both have the same target. Double the scripts by EOY. I think shorts could be in big trouble, they have taken a hit from .99, up 40% already, If we can make those numbers in sales this could rise another 50%, that's HUGE! If we can get the SP up to $2, I'll make a killing. There is potentially big wealth to be made here. SUPER BULLISH!! Wonder if he is still holding? $2 a share seems very doable. |
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Post by rossomalley on Oct 6, 2019 22:00:53 GMT -5
...Even if the number represents only their two oldest (and presumably most productive) clinics, as your pedantic reading of Mike’s comment would have it, that would still be a dismal 3 TRx and <1 NRx for each of these two clinics per week. And Mike made that comment only a couple months ago, so your complaining about needing an update seems unlikely to change this picture substantially.... Bear in mind that Mike said this, " after 4 years we see <25 scripts a month out of their two centers" and as you pointed out that was only three months ago. At the point though there were six VDEX clinics, not two. I hadn't really thought about that before, but now it looks like Mike was using old numbers from when they only had two clinics. Most likely this was from when VDEX had last approached them and Mannkind pulled the data from their own records. Mike just regurgitated it because it fitted his argument even if it was inaccurate. That means this is a complete lottery and we can have no idea what the current TRx or NRx for VDEX are with any sort of accuracy. If that were true, why hasn’t VDEX bothered to correct Mike’s supposedly wildly out of date numbers? These numbers have been discussed very publicly here and elsewhere and we know VDEX operatives and ‘followers‘ are active members of PB. More likely, Mike was speaking in the sloppy, imprecise way that he often does (“speed trumps accuracy” isn’t just for Afrezza, as anyone who has read through one of his conference calls or interviews knows) and the numbers are recent and represent the total Rx that Afrezza is getting from the VDEX clinics, all six of them, if there really are six functioning. I have doubts whether they are really all functioning, I haven’t seen any recent evidence from social media chatter to support this claim. Has anyone recently visited one of their offices? They seem not to be able to afford advertising. Can anyone verify how many of these are actually functioning clinics with regular hours and staffing? |
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Post by castlerockchris on Oct 7, 2019 0:08:22 GMT -5
I realize I am about to step fully on a landmine here, but... In all honesty, I would welcome VDEX stepping forward with some amazing numbers regarding scripts contributed, patient engagement and retention rates. That would mean they may have learned something MNKD has not, and if used properly and in good spirit, may contribute to the long-term success of MNKD. I would hope that only positive actions and results would come from such a disclosure. But then again...
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Post by longliner on Oct 7, 2019 0:55:31 GMT -5
I realize I am about to step fully on a landmine here, but... In all honesty, I would welcome VDEX stepping forward with some amazing numbers regarding scripts contributed, patient engagement and retention rates. That would mean they may have learned something MNKD has not, and if used properly and in good spirit, may contribute to the long-term success of MNKD. I would hope that only positive actions and results would come from such a disclosure. But then again... I would welcome ANYTHING other than the gibberish to date from VDEX. |
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Post by longliner on Oct 7, 2019 1:09:03 GMT -5
At some point Vdex will show it's numbers.... And when they do certain people are going to find a way to discredit them anyway...because they don't want to believe the truth.. Sweedee, I would love to believe. I do believe you, and your intentions are in the best interest of our investment and this technology. I will not discredit facts, but.................this has gone on for months and VDEX has offered nothing to substantiate (to me anyway) the claims made of any numbers? I have a vested interest in Mannkind. VDEX gibberish (to me) is detrimental to my investment in MNKD until information is provided by VDEX to refute this I have to believe they are charlatans. Who knows, maybe they will start a fake University......it doesn't mean I will send my kids there. (They already have hair)  |
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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 7, 2019 6:08:56 GMT -5
And I’ve been invested in MNKD for 3 1/2 years and they’ve done nothing to substantiate an increase in my investment. And quite to the contrary a 70% loss. I have to believe they are charlatans.. I’ve got nothing but gibberish to show for it.
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Post by sweedee79 on Oct 7, 2019 9:30:55 GMT -5
I would rather hold my judgement until the facts are known..
There is a lot I would like to say about MC.. but for the most part I don't because it is in bad taste..
There is too much we don't know right now.. what I do know is that we have a world class insulin that is struggling to stay afloat..we are celebrating 880 scripts a week!!!!! Which btw VDEX contributed to.. not to mention that Vdex are shareholders also... "Charlatans" .. I don't think so.
As I see it, there is no BP who is going to be our White Knight and Vdex can and will accumulate patients who will succeed on the drug because they will be using it as was intended. Unlike most of our endos who want nothing to do with it.. not to mention our barbaric SOC..
In business time is money..it's been too long already..
The facts will be known.. I plan to be fair an open minded about it.. Vdex is a start up.. I have no idea how many patients they have.. last I heard it was 300.. that doesn't sound like much.. but if it's 300 happy patients who truly understand Afrezza and retention is good that's better than we are doing.. I suspect this number will most certainly grow as PWD hear about Vdex and their success with Afrezza..
As it stands with Mnkd and Afrezza.. IMO Vdex and Dr. Kendall are our only hope..
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