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Post by rossomalley on Oct 7, 2019 15:01:28 GMT -5
These facts are incontrovertible: 1) Afrezza scripts are lower than any of us predicted they would be by now, lower than what we need them to be. 2) Without VDEX, script counts would be even LOWER than they are now. Those are facts, this is just my opinion: VDEX and MNKD's relationship should be collaborative rather than adversarial, the success of one should logically benefit the other so let's work together (as much as is allowed under rules and regs). Truthfully agree. That's why I can't understand MC's attitude toward Vdex. many people on this board doubt about Vdex's success story, but think about it: If you were the founder of Vdex, after openning the first two clinics, would you continue to open the 3/4/5/6th clinics if you didn't see good results coming out from the first two? I don’t think VDEX (in the sense of the founders of the scheme) are themselves opening additional clinics. Rather, they seem to be using their supposed success to convince investors to open a VDEX franchise, probably taking some sort of franchise fee. This would explain why they don’t want to be transparent about the numbers of patients they have and why they have clearly been exaggerating their retention rate. |
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Post by rossomalley on Oct 7, 2019 15:35:37 GMT -5
It’s interesting how VDEX and now the HFM scheme have become a way for various people to express their frustration with Mike, or a way to try to get back at him for ignoring them, disrespecting them, for their losses playing MNKD options in January, or for whatever other grievance they might have connected with their MNKD investment. It’s also curious how many of these VDEX/HFM cheerleaders and apologists were once Castagna Ultras. I had very low expectations for MC (you can look back through my posts in the months after his palace coup if you doubt), but I think he’s done better than I expected and the drama HFM and their notorious accomplice Kovacocky are trying to inject into the process are both amateurish and counterproductive to the health of our investments. If you don’t like Mike or think he’s a crappy CEO (I’m guilty of both), just say that, don’t implicate yourself in the VDEX/HFM scam. There is zero hard evidence that VDEX has been successful in any meaningful sense (i.e. helping add and keep patients on Afrezza). I would love for VDEX to be a huge success, and if there was real evidence that they were I would happily vote to make Wild Bill a director (as long as he cut ties with Kovacocky). But there are only vague claims of success (usually by their cheerleading squad), these changing but always unrealistic ‘retention’ figures, and every hard number we do see, whether the 300 total patients (by VDEX’s own admission) for multiple clinics over a few years now or the ‘less than 25 TRx per MONTH’ that Mike mentioned, these all suggest that VDEX is a failed business model and hardly grounds for ‘pledging’ your shares to their Leader.
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Post by markado on Oct 7, 2019 15:56:15 GMT -5
Maybe hitting $1.5M per week by December's end is possible, and the trend toward $2M per week, and near break even by next May or June is on track. Hopefully, these numbers become more sustainable and upward trending. Even assuming the growth rate you are, that doesn't get to break even next year. $2M per week is a run rate of $104M per year. I'll double check the net margins and cash burn, but the last time I did, this got us close. And, this not a one product company, so multiple sources of revenue. I'm counting on that plus growth in Afrezza to get us over that line, initially. |
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Post by awesomo on Oct 7, 2019 16:05:47 GMT -5
Even assuming the growth rate you are, that doesn't get to break even next year. $2M per week is a run rate of $104M per year. I'll double check the net margins and cash burn, but the last time I did, this got us close. And, this not a one product company, so multiple sources of revenue. I'm counting on that plus growth in Afrezza to get us over that line, initially. Retail sales aren’t the same as revenue, why do people keep conflating the two. MannKind takes roughly half of what is reported from Symphony, so we’ve got a long way to go before ever hitting $1.5M per week ($3M Symphony). |
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Post by neil36 on Oct 7, 2019 16:13:01 GMT -5
$2 million a week needed to break even would require north of $4 million a week in retail sales. At $1,600 per script, that would require 2,500 scripts per week to break even.
Not a sophisticated analysis, but my quick back-o-napkin outlook. Of course the numbers required to break even go down if there are milestone and royalty payments for TrepT (or anything else) to augment the cashflow. Bottom line is that we aren’t breaking even any time in the near-term future.
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 7, 2019 16:43:36 GMT -5
And as I keep saying ... it's not all about Afrezza. As neil36 said above, we have Trep T milestone and royalty payments added into the mix. Partner ship with UTHR is a fabulous deal. I think you all should listen to the Conference calls again and really listen to what Mike C says.
But, that's mytakeonit (with another 4 cents in my pocket ... and hopefully my buy order fills tomorrow)
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 7, 2019 16:50:22 GMT -5
Truthfully agree. That's why I can't understand MC's attitude toward Vdex. many people on this board doubt about Vdex's success story, but think about it: If you were the founder of Vdex, after openning the first two clinics, would you continue to open the 3/4/5/6th clinics if you didn't see good results coming out from the first two? I don’t think VDEX (in the sense of the founders of the scheme) are themselves opening additional clinics. Rather, they seem to be using their supposed success to convince investors to open a VDEX franchise, probably taking some sort of franchise fee. This would explain why they don’t want to be transparent about the numbers of patients they have and why they have clearly been exaggerating their retention rate. Pretty sure that's incorrect. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Oct 7, 2019 16:59:17 GMT -5
Unless the situation has changed ... VDEX does not have stand alone clinics. I remember that they were situated in other doctor's offices or part of a group of "something". So if markado's Kroger plan works out ... we could be seeing thousands of VDEX clinics soon.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 7, 2019 17:49:21 GMT -5
I don’t think VDEX (in the sense of the founders of the scheme) are themselves opening additional clinics. Rather, they seem to be using their supposed success to convince investors to open a VDEX franchise, probably taking some sort of franchise fee. This would explain why they don’t want to be transparent about the numbers of patients they have and why they have clearly been exaggerating their retention rate. It's not every day you see someone accuse VDEX of committing fraud. What you have just said is that VDEX deliberately supplied falsified data to induce their franchisees to buy a franchise. Can you see how ridiculous that is? I think you need to pause for a moment and take a breath. |
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Post by ktim on Oct 7, 2019 17:49:22 GMT -5
Even assuming the growth rate you are, that doesn't get to break even next year. $2M per week is a run rate of $104M per year. I'll double check the net margins and cash burn, but the last time I did, this got us close. And, this not a one product company, so multiple sources of revenue. I'm counting on that plus growth in Afrezza to get us over that line, initially. The net revenue recognized is only half or a little less. The other products in development won't be generating sales by mid next year, the time frame you mentioned for break even, but yes there is potential for TreT to make a significant difference in 2021. |
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Post by longliner on Oct 7, 2019 18:00:14 GMT -5
These facts are incontrovertible: 1) Afrezza scripts are lower than any of us predicted they would be by now, lower than what we need them to be. 2) Without VDEX, script counts would be even LOWER than they are now. Those are facts, this is just my opinion: VDEX and MNKD's relationship should be collaborative rather than adversarial, the success of one should logically benefit the other so let's work together (as much as is allowed under rules and regs). It’s seems to just have gone away , but didn’t mnkd mention somewhere recently that we are opening a VEDEX like operation ... doesn’t seem like to much attention has been paid to this .. maybe I heard or read the concept wrong ! If I remember correctly they applied for a related trademark or something. Trademark may be wrong term, please correct as needed. |
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 7, 2019 18:09:12 GMT -5
I think, rossomalley, that it’s time for you to give Castagna’s statement a rest. You’re using it like a baseball bat to bludgeon PB members. Symphony scripts are traceable to writers. The two “clinics” stated is in all likelihood two physicians and MannKind’s CEO doesn’t have a clue how many physicians work for VDex. Shareholders don’t know whether the two physicians are from a startup VDex clinic or an established one.
McCulloch addressed this in his public rebuttal and, at the end of the day, I simply want to see script growth. I don’t care from where.
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 7, 2019 18:11:30 GMT -5
$2M per week is a run rate of $104M per year. I'll double check the net margins and cash burn, but the last time I did, this got us close. And, this not a one product company, so multiple sources of revenue. I'm counting on that plus growth in Afrezza to get us over that line, initially. This is the math from the last 10Q. Everything is for a 3 month period. Gross Revenue = $10.339M Less Wholesaler distribution fees, rebates and chargebacks, product returns and other discounts = $4.274M Cost of Goods = $4.327M Balance -> $1.738M per quarter As you can see it's not close (SG&A alone is $16.609M per quarter) |
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Post by longliner on Oct 7, 2019 18:15:16 GMT -5
$2 million a week needed to break even would require north of $4 million a week in retail sales. At $1,600 per script, that would require 2,500 scripts per week to break even. Not a sophisticated analysis, but my quick back-o-napkin outlook. Of course the numbers required to break even go down if there are milestone and royalty payments for TrepT (or anything else) to augment the cashflow. Bottom line is that we aren’t breaking even any time in the near-term future.Maybe not....but when we do, I will be here with a boat load of cheap shares! No options here, I don't get mad, I get even.  |
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Post by rossomalley on Oct 7, 2019 18:57:20 GMT -5
I think, rossomalley, that it’s time for you to give Castagna’s statement a rest. You’re using it like a baseball bat to bludgeon PB members. Symphony scripts are traceable to writers. The two “clinics” stated is in all likelihood two physicians and MannKind’s CEO doesn’t have a clue how many physicians work for VDex. Shareholders don’t know whether the two physicians are from a startup VDex clinic or an established one. McCulloch addressed this in his public rebuttal and, at the end of the day, I simply want to see script growth. I don’t care from where. What exactly did Bill say? And why didn’t he want to offer the ‘real’ number to correct Mike’s number? Until Bill comes clean about how many NRx VDEx has generated and how many of them are still using Afrezza a year and a day later, we won’t know for sure whether they have a successful model or not. However, AFAIK we don’t know what exactly Mike was basing his numbers on. You’re the one who is trying to spin it as Symphony readouts for 2 physicians. Mike said simply that VDEX was producing less than 25 TRx per month ‘from their 2 clinics’. Maybe they only have 2 clinics producing any meaningful number of Rx. Or maybe he misspoke and meant from all of their clinics. Frankly, I don’t know that they are actually operating six clinics in any meaningful sense. Announcing them on Twitter doesn’t mean anything. Have you seen one of these ‘clinics’ with your own eyes? Has anyone here seen one? The fact remains that the 25 TRx is one of the few numbers we have to work with until Bill decides to be transparent about VDEX numbers. The other number we have came from VDEX itself and that number (a total 300 patients for all their clinics since the beginning) is hardly reassuring. I too just want Rx to increase and I too will be happy to get them from wherever (as long as it’s not one-and-done Rx, which I think could be a problem if VDEX is overly dependent on discount programs like this year’s DTC). However when VDEX became a distracting and costly nuisance factor for MannKind with this HFM nonsense, and now that they’re using their social media minions to suggest VDEX is responsible for every pop in weekly Rx, then I start feeling that they are undermining my MNKD investment, not helping it. So, if Bill is really helping MannKind move Afrezza, let him prove it. Mr. Bill, open those books! |
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