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Post by lakon on Jun 1, 2017 11:51:18 GMT -5
Why hold until dilution occurs? Are you expecting MNKD to ask stockholders to vote on massively increasing the number of authorized shares and create the possibility of 50% or more dilution? According to the 1Q17 10-Q there were 140 million shares authorized and 95,776,297 issued as of March 31, 2017. Considering the 5 million plus shares issued to Deerfield the following month and shares reserved for incentive plans, there are about 35 million shares available for any equity based financing. With about 101 million shares already issued these additional 35 million shares would represent only about 25% dilution. In the last several weeks the stock price has more than doubled from the early May low. So it doesn't appear to be a wise strategy to wait for a 25% return from dilution when shorts may be facing the possibility of another doubling of the stock price with more good news. And the possibility of cash payments to MNKD resulting from any expected near-term deals that would obviate the need for equity based financing altogether, should serve as a further deterrent to a short strategy of waiting for dilution. The only way this strategy would work is for shorts to go all out and put a lid on the PPS every time a piece of good news appears. To me this is a strategy for suicide not making money. Yes, I do and I expect shareholders would especially with the sentiment change. What have shorts done today to the share price? How many times must you touch fire in order to learn you get burned and the long side has no control over this investment. Given that the stock is a cult stock, a rights offering makes the most sense. Since rights offerings are not dilutive, shorts would have to bet that not enough remaining in the cult are willing to pony up. On the other hand, shorts are going to have trouble covering any other way. They have a tightly wound spring. I actually expect that the stock moves significantly upwards due to deals, debt renegotiation, and script growth over the next few months. They will dilute with what they already can to kick the can down the road. The last ditch effort will be a rights offering IF debt renegotiation along with new debt fails to materialize. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2017 12:19:15 GMT -5
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Post by oldfishtowner on Jun 1, 2017 13:04:00 GMT -5
It depends on how you look at it. The investopedia article you reference says it is dilutive to the shares, which is correct. Since there are more shares, each represents a smaller share of the company and, therefore, for a given valuation of the company is worth less than before the rights offering. But in this sense, so is a stock split. And the reverse split was just the opposite. On the other hand, if the existing shareholder exercises his/her rights, their ownership in the company is not diluted. Which is the way some have been looking at it. But in the practical sense, if the rights offering is the difference between bankruptcy and a company turnaround leading to profitability, a smaller share of something is certainly worth more than 100% of nothing. So is that dilutive or non-dilutive? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2017 13:09:50 GMT -5
It depends on how you look at it. The investopedia article you reference says it is dilutive to the shares, which is correct. Since there are more shares, each represents a smaller share of the company and, therefore, for a given valuation of the company is worth less than before the rights offering. But in this sense, so is a stock split. And the reverse split was just the opposite. On the other hand, if the existing shareholder exercises his/her rights, their ownership in the company is not diluted. Which is the way some have been looking at it. But in the practical sense, if the rights offering is the difference between bankruptcy and a company turnaround leading to profitability, a smaller share of something is certainly worth more than 100% of nothing. So is that dilutive or non-dilutive? Of course, I would rather have something than nothing. I am profitable in my MNKD investment. I traded/gambled my way out of the hole and then crushed calls when they settled with SNY. I do not feel the same pain as other shareholders. I stopped with the long position when SNY dropped them and I have been in and out. I am all for dilution given the current sentiment of Afrezza and not dilution that gets them over the hump for 3-4 months. However, that does not change the fact that a rights offering is dilutive. |
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Post by oldfishtowner on Jun 1, 2017 13:54:00 GMT -5
It depends on how you look at it. The investopedia article you reference says it is dilutive to the shares, which is correct. Since there are more shares, each represents a smaller share of the company and, therefore, for a given valuation of the company is worth less than before the rights offering. But in this sense, so is a stock split. And the reverse split was just the opposite. On the other hand, if the existing shareholder exercises his/her rights, their ownership in the company is not diluted. Which is the way some have been looking at it. But in the practical sense, if the rights offering is the difference between bankruptcy and a company turnaround leading to profitability, a smaller share of something is certainly worth more than 100% of nothing. So is that dilutive or non-dilutive? Of course, I would rather have something than nothing. I am profitable in my MNKD investment. I traded/gambled my way out of the hole and then crushed calls when they settled with SNY. I do not feel the same pain as other shareholders. I stopped with the long position when SNY dropped them and I have been in and out. I am all for dilution given the current sentiment of Afrezza and not dilution that gets them over the hump for 3-4 months. However, that does not change the fact that a rights offering is dilutive. Of course. That's why I had revised the last sentence of my post before I saw your reply. And since you have immortalized the original, I reversed the edit to avoid confusion. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2017 14:20:05 GMT -5
Of course, I would rather have something than nothing. I am profitable in my MNKD investment. I traded/gambled my way out of the hole and then crushed calls when they settled with SNY. I do not feel the same pain as other shareholders. I stopped with the long position when SNY dropped them and I have been in and out. I am all for dilution given the current sentiment of Afrezza and not dilution that gets them over the hump for 3-4 months. However, that does not change the fact that a rights offering is dilutive. Of course. That's why I had revised the last sentence of my post before I saw your reply. And since you have immortalized the original, I reversed the edit to avoid confusion. All good old fish  |
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Post by peppy on Jun 1, 2017 15:20:36 GMT -5
1 million shares traded in 4 mins.
$1.69
www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time
1,499,084 shares in 9 mins.
1,910,806 in 15 minutes. $1.67
2,061,475 in 23 mins.
2,193,796 in 30 mins. $1.66
2,487,150 in 1 hour. $1.66
total real time volume today 4,231,526 $1.62 up .10 up 6.5% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time most of the volume in the first hour. Harry posted the calls and puts bought. summation volume, 5,665,077 we know the tase had turnovers.
Nice little squeeze. scripts tomorrow. The twenty day ma crossing over the 50 day ma to line up. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MNKD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68024161627
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 1, 2017 15:33:52 GMT -5
I like the way we held on around .10 up today. I was thinking we'd lose all the early gains. We need the cash news!
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jun 1, 2017 16:50:38 GMT -5
I like the way we held on around .10 up today. I was thinking we'd lose all the early gains. We need the cash news! I believe the shorts basically hooked the price today on a "boat anchor". They sold enough today to hold the price at around $1.62. They are good at this. Sell just enough to kill the buying enthusiasm over the Brazil announcement. Then wait for lower volume days and drive the price down. Thus causing discouragement in long term investors who then sell. I really truly hope the shorts burn on this stock for all of the misery they have caused shareholders over the last decade. |
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Post by peppy on Jun 2, 2017 9:34:53 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Jun 2, 2017 15:16:25 GMT -5
realtime volume at the half, 1,423,405 volume at the close, 2,257,705 $1.55 minus .07 minus 4.32% summary volume; 2,553,007 .
daily and weekly charts: 
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Post by compound26 on Jun 2, 2017 15:55:26 GMT -5
Lol, note that in after hours trading at 16:24:47, a trade of 8 shares (i.e., with a total dollar value of $12) drive down the PPS by 5 cents from 1.55 to 1.50. While at the same time, the other 10,000 plus shares traded with the PPS without any change. Come on. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Jun 2, 2017 18:19:10 GMT -5
Lol, note that in after hours trading at 16:24:47, a trade of 8 shares (i.e., with a total dollar value of $12) drive down the PPS by 5 cents from 1.55 to 1.50. While at the same time, the other 10,000 plus shares traded with the PPS without any change. Come on. If it makes you feel better ... that 8 shares had a commission rate of $9. So, save .05 ... but, add $1.125/share. I think the 10k lot was cheaper. LOL |
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Post by promann on Jun 5, 2017 5:27:27 GMT -5
Nice premarket volume starting early.. Previous mornings like these led to a high volume positive day A little over 8,000 shares traded up 10 cents at 1.65. :-). Let's hope this trend continues I'm thinking a good day is coming for us longs. :-) www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/premarket |
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Post by peppy on Jun 5, 2017 6:30:17 GMT -5
Nice premarket volume starting early.. Previous mornings like these led to a high volume positive day A little over 8,000 shares traded up 10 cents at 1.65. :-). Let's hope this trend continues I'm thinking a good day is coming for us longs. :-) www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/premarketplenty of volume pumping through already. (june 4th was yesterday, just sayin) www.screencast.com/t/oeKlehLaEB heh
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