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Post by golfeveryday on Jun 17, 2017 17:34:45 GMT -5
Dilution is an issue. There are a lot of shorts waiting for it. - Will DTC work? Depends what you expect DTC to deliver. I am deeply unconvinced personally that it will trigger a sharp rise in script since I see it as easy for a doctor to talk the patient around. What it will do is raise awareness and visibility which will help in the long run. - International partnership bringing in new revenue soon? Not going to happen to any significant extent. Afrezza would have to be competitively priced and those numbers are a fraction of the US. Couple that with needing to build up the market, and getting doctors on-board. New revenue - yes, soon - no. - One Drop delivering Afrezza direct to PWD bypassing doctor. That requires a change in the law or the classification of Afrezza. Neither of those is going to happen. What I expect to happen is a repeat of the last Deerfield settlement with the debt settled part in cash and part in stock. Some dilution, some cash preservation. . Age. With all the new hires the new show one drop. we know UAE is in play Mike not appearing worried I give dilution about a 5% chance at this point. We have turned the corner Mattocks suggesting reversed airing in South Africa, Canada, UK, and Latin America is no coincidence in my opinion. He has an affinity to MNKD and my bet he is going to air in countries where Mnkd has international expansion. |
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Volume too
Jun 17, 2017 18:08:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by saxcmann on Jun 17, 2017 18:08:29 GMT -5
Dilution is an issue. There are a lot of shorts waiting for it. - Will DTC work? Depends what you expect DTC to deliver. I am deeply unconvinced personally that it will trigger a sharp rise in script since I see it as easy for a doctor to talk the patient around. What it will do is raise awareness and visibility which will help in the long run. - International partnership bringing in new revenue soon? Not going to happen to any significant extent. Afrezza would have to be competitively priced and those numbers are a fraction of the US. Couple that with needing to build up the market, and getting doctors on-board. New revenue - yes, soon - no. - One Drop delivering Afrezza direct to PWD bypassing doctor. That requires a change in the law or the classification of Afrezza. Neither of those is going to happen. What I expect to happen is a repeat of the last Deerfield settlement with the debt settled part in cash and part in stock. Some dilution, some cash preservation. . Age. With all the new hires the new show one drop. we know UAE is in play Mike not appearing worried I give dilution about a 5% chance at this point. We have turned the corner How can you say that gambler? still no cash to extend runway. we haven't turned the corner yet. not until we figure out cash. why are shorts paying so much interest? They know, dilution coming? MC has hinted about cash runway for 18-24 months but books say otherwise. until cash figured out I'm nervous. my guess is 80% chance of more dilution. why else 25 million shorts and big interest rate??? |
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Post by deaner3 on Jun 17, 2017 20:12:34 GMT -5
. Age. With all the new hires the new show one drop. we know UAE is in play Mike not appearing worried I give dilution about a 5% chance at this point. We have turned the corner How can you say that gambler? still no cash to extend runway. we haven't turned the corner yet. not until we figure out cash. why are shorts paying so much interest? They know, dilution coming? MC has hinted about cash runway for 18-24 months but books say otherwise. until cash figured out I'm nervous. my guess is 80% chance of more dilution. why else 25 million shorts and big interest rate??? I don't think the shorts are shorting because they think it is the smart play at this point. It's the big pharma desperation to destroy before they are destroyed. IMO. Fortunately it looks like their attempt isn't going to work. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 17, 2017 22:25:24 GMT -5
Dilution is an issue. There are a lot of shorts waiting for it. - Will DTC work? Depends what you expect DTC to deliver. I am deeply unconvinced personally that it will trigger a sharp rise in script since I see it as easy for a doctor to talk the patient around. What it will do is raise awareness and visibility which will help in the long run. - International partnership bringing in new revenue soon? Not going to happen to any significant extent. Afrezza would have to be competitively priced and those numbers are a fraction of the US. Couple that with needing to build up the market, and getting doctors on-board. New revenue - yes, soon - no. - One Drop delivering Afrezza direct to PWD bypassing doctor. That requires a change in the law or the classification of Afrezza. Neither of those is going to happen. What I expect to happen is a repeat of the last Deerfield settlement with the debt settled part in cash and part in stock. Some dilution, some cash preservation. . Age. With all the new hires the new show one drop. we know UAE is in play Mike not appearing worried I give dilution about a 5% chance at this point. We have turned the corner The Deerfield payment is due July 21st. That gives just over a month and I don't see which of the events are going to cover that payment within that timescale. Mannkind is going to try and preserve cash (as they should) so they will do the same sort of deal as last time - part cash, part dilution. The new hires are just cost at this point. I don't see what One Drop gives us in immediate cash terms, UAE? Maybe but it's low margin/low volume. It's Mike's job not to appear worried! The chance of dilution is far higher than 5% at this point. Unless I have missed something, and I welcome suggestions, I don't see where the money comes from. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 17, 2017 22:35:53 GMT -5
. Age. With all the new hires the new show one drop. we know UAE is in play Mike not appearing worried I give dilution about a 5% chance at this point. We have turned the corner Mattocks suggesting reversed airing in South Africa, Canada, UK, and Latin America is no coincidence in my opinion. He has an affinity to MNKD and my bet he is going to air in countries where Mnkd has international expansion. The UK is at least 18 months away there as you would have to go through EMA, NICE, and the purchasing trusts. South Africa is 24 months (12 months for a generic which is the best case) to get through the MCC assuming there isn't a backlog at the time. LATAM and Canada I am not sure (didn't someone give a time for Brazil?) |
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 17, 2017 23:29:07 GMT -5
It's a bit strange that there is such a disconnect between investors...
I put the odds of dilution at 95% this year, in other words basically guaranteed.
Someone commented "all we need to do is find new investors".
New Investors = dilution
I think they meant a loan. I think from from MannKind's perspective dilution is better than a loan. A loan incurs obligations, and reduces flexibility.
At this stock price the last thing they want is to issue more shares, but I don't think they have a choice...
What I want, is one last dilution this year that will cary us all the way through 2018. The problem is scripts are increasing to slowly to significantly reduce the cash burn. Also, there is no where else to cut costs. If anything cost are going to increase for Afrezza trials and TS pipeline trials. We need to get the trials done ASAP to give us any leverage when negotiating partnerships. Leverage = $$$ upfront (unlike the Brazil deal)
What Mike is confident about is avoiding bankruptcy... that's very different from him being confident MannKind will avoid dilution.
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Post by golfeveryday on Jun 18, 2017 6:39:29 GMT -5
Mattocks suggesting reversed airing in South Africa, Canada, UK, and Latin America is no coincidence in my opinion. He has an affinity to MNKD and my bet he is going to air in countries where Mnkd has international expansion. The UK is at least 18 months away there as you would have to go through EMA, NICE, and the purchasing trusts. South Africa is 24 months (12 months for a generic which is the best case) to get through the MCC assuming there isn't a backlog at the time. LATAM and Canada I am not sure (didn't someone give a time for Brazil?) Very true. US has been in the works for quite some time. I have expected Canada to be one of the next countries announced for Afrezza expansion, so that lines up. Not sure about Brazil and does anyone know if the UK process had been started? |
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Post by agedhippie on Jun 18, 2017 10:26:27 GMT -5
The UK is at least 18 months away there as you would have to go through EMA, NICE, and the purchasing trusts. South Africa is 24 months (12 months for a generic which is the best case) to get through the MCC assuming there isn't a backlog at the time. LATAM and Canada I am not sure (didn't someone give a time for Brazil?) Very true. US has been in the works for quite some time. I have expected Canada to be one of the next countries announced for Afrezza expansion, so that lines up. Not sure about Brazil and does anyone know if the UK process had been started? The UK process has not been started. More to the point neither has the EMA process which precedes the process for the UK and other EU countries. |
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Post by peppy on Jun 19, 2017 16:38:19 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Jun 20, 2017 18:29:19 GMT -5
todays MNKD real time volume, 776,565 shares, $1.53 down 1 cent. down .65% 30 min volume, 220,176. 60 min volume 285,427. 3 1/2 hour volume, 456,607.
todays summation volume, 1,301,369 shares.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MNKD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p14611223458
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Post by peppy on Jun 21, 2017 9:33:07 GMT -5
todays MNKD real time share volume is non-existent.
80,183 shares in 30 mins
108,253 shares in an hour. $1.515
www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time
added: 188,231 real time shares at 1 1/2 hours $1.505 7 mins later 235,232 $1.47 6 mins more 268,019 $1.51 minus 2 cents.
second day in a row, the dump bought up.
presently 341,085 shares close to the two hour of trade mark. $1.53 unchanged.
343,885 the two hour mark. $1.52. |
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Post by peppy on Jun 21, 2017 11:00:51 GMT -5
todays MNKD real time share volume is non-existent.
80,183 shares in 30 mins
108,253 shares in an hour. $1.515
www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time
added: 188,231 real time shares at 1 1/2 hours $1.505 7 mins later 235,232 $1.47 6 mins more 268,019 $1.51 minus 2 cents.
second day in a row, the dump bought up.
presently 341,085 shares close to the two hour of trade mark. $1.53 unchanged.
343,885 the two hour mark. $1.52. through $1.57 $1.61 $1.63 $1.68 target. 2 1/2 hour real time volume, 446,097 shares.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 21, 2017 12:54:21 GMT -5
Hey, biotech has been awash with green this week, and MNKD is participating, sort of like a guy at a wild frat party with a club soda sitting alone in a corner...
But, as we know, that may be the guy you want to be!
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Post by n8 on Jun 21, 2017 13:13:41 GMT -5
Hey, biotech has been awash with green this week, and MNKD is participating, sort of like a guy at a wild frat party with a club soda sitting alone in a corner... But, as we know, that may be the guy you want to be! Designated driver to greener pastures? |
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Post by peppy on Jun 22, 2017 11:24:35 GMT -5
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