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Post by peppy on Aug 15, 2017 15:11:17 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Aug 15, 2017 16:14:46 GMT -5
per above, never mind options expire on Friday. the price might get held based on where the options market makes the most money. Very doubtful there will be a pin this week at opex. That would assume a 20% more in the stock by Friday as the pin values are only 1.00 or 1.50 between 1 dollar and $1.50 is $1.25. I am option stupid. the least amount of people to make money on these options, price would settle where?
MNKD $1.27 +0.01 +0.79%
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 15, 2017 16:23:27 GMT -5
Very doubtful there will be a pin this week at opex. That would assume a 20% more in the stock by Friday as the pin values are only 1.00 or 1.50 between 1 dollar and $1.50 is $1.25. I am option stupid. the least amount of people to make money on these options, price would settle where?
MNKD $1.27 +0.01 +0.79%
Had a brother that was an option floor trader (market making firm) for awhile, so take this with grain of salt that it is simply what I picked up talking to him while he was in the business. If you mean the least amount of people (other than the market makers), it still would be hard to predict. Market makers can try to maintain totally neutral positions in the stock and simply collect the premium decay, but there are many other strategies they may use depending on the appetite for risk. They could be net long or net short on the stock... or trying to play swings in implied volatility. I would assume that when people speculate the price will be pegged at a given strike price it is assuming the market markers (or other large sellers of options) are purely playing premium decay. In that case I don't think it would reason that half way between would be a target to pin price. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 15, 2017 16:36:43 GMT -5
between 1 dollar and $1.50 is $1.25. I am option stupid. the least amount of people to make money on these options, price would settle where?
MNKD $1.27 +0.01 +0.79%
Had a brother that was an option floor trader (market making firm) for awhile, so take this with grain of salt that it is simply what I picked up talking to him while he was in the business. If you mean the least amount of people (other than the market makers), it still would be hard to predict. Market makers can try to maintain totally neutral positions in the stock and simply collect the premium decay, but there are many other strategies they may use depending on the appetite for risk. They could be net long or net short on the stock... or trying to play swings in implied volatility. I would assume that when people speculate the price will be pegged at a given strike price it is assuming the market markers (or other large sellers of options) are purely playing premium decay. In that case I don't think it would reason that half way between would be a target to pin price. yeah, I am option stupid. maximum-pain.com/stock/MNKD.aspx
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 15, 2017 17:19:37 GMT -5
Very doubtful there will be a pin this week at opex. That would assume a 20% more in the stock by Friday as the pin values are only 1.00 or 1.50 between 1 dollar and $1.50 is $1.25. I am option stupid. the least amount of people to make money on these options, price would settle where?
MNKD $1.27 +0.01 +0.79%
Options writers need to keep the price between 1.01 and 1.49 to have the most amount of options expire worthless. A pin would be to move the price to an exact strike price to have an extra set of strikes expire worthless. If we were to have amazing scripts on Friday and the price would trade over 1.50 during the session, the market makers may attempt a late short attack to have the stock price close at 1.50 or below so the 1.50 strikes do not execute. This is called pinning the stock price. The sun and moon need to align perfectly with the current price at 1.26 and that won't happen until Monday morning in Oregon to South Carolina. There is little incentive to have the price move above 1.49 or below 1.01 to have different strikes expire worthless. It is my understanding that options writers would hedge by selling/buying the oppisite end of the option they had just sold/bought and keep the difference (vig like a bookie), or hedge with the underlying creating covered calls or married puts for a guaranteed profit. They are the house, they make money on transactions, not taking risk. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 15, 2017 18:11:26 GMT -5
between 1 dollar and $1.50 is $1.25. I am option stupid. the least amount of people to make money on these options, price would settle where?
MNKD $1.27 +0.01 +0.79%
Options writers need to keep the price between 1.01 and 1.49 to have the most amount of options expire worthless. A pin would be to move the price to an exact strike price to have an extra set of strikes expire worthless. If we were to have amazing scripts on Friday and the price would trade over 1.50 during the session, the market makers may attempt a late short attack to have the stock price close at 1.50 or below so the 1.50 strikes do not execute. This is called pinning the stock price. The sun and moon need to align perfectly with the current price at 1.26 and that won't happen until Monday morning in Oregon to South Carolina. There is little incentive to have the price move above 1.49 or below 1.01 to have different strikes expire worthless. It is my understanding that options writers would hedge by selling/buying the oppisite end of the option they had just sold/bought and keep the difference (vig like a bookie), or hedge with the underlying creating covered calls or married puts for a guaranteed profit. They are the house, they make money on transactions, not taking risk. Capturing the spread like that is certainly nice work and a no-brainer for the market makers. But they also will balance out various options (different strikes and expirations) as well as short or long positions in the underlying stock in order to come up with relatively neutral positions where they can benefit from the time decay in the option premiums. Back in the day it seemed the ones that worked with my brother rarely took overall long or short positions as they had no desire to figure out what a company actually did. They would bet on implied volatility, so there are certain positions they could make money if it went up or if it went down. Since they are the ones that live and breath implied volatility they could make assessments about when it was too low or too high without needing to understand the business of a particular company. They have computer programs that guide them on all this stuff with metrics for their overall positions in a given issue... or at least it was a computer recommendations back years ago. Perhaps now the computers run the show and the people just sit back drinking coffee and raking in the money. peppy ... I still feel like an options novice and I've been trading them off and on for a couple of decades now. My experience talking to options traders just makes me realize how much of the mechanics of the market I don't understand. |
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Post by celo on Aug 16, 2017 11:19:27 GMT -5
MNKD real time volume on the day, 1,148,627 $1.19 up 3 cents.
Weekly Chart
Seems to be breaking out of the trend line. Nice move today |
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 16, 2017 11:19:53 GMT -5
up 10% and for this time of day when we are normally pressured down, somerhing appears to be up
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Post by peppy on Aug 16, 2017 11:30:09 GMT -5
5 minutes short of 3 hours trade mnkd real time share volume 1,099,443. $1.37 up 10 cents volume started coming in the last hour. (after two hours of trade) www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time |
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Post by peppy on Aug 16, 2017 11:34:18 GMT -5
(Celo) 88 cent triangle has formed May 8th to present.
break and hold of what looks like $1.60 + .88 = $2.48.
good luck to us all.
www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time
(Afrezza is an excellent insulin.
The pharmacy purchasing manufactures and insures have tried their best to Bankrupt the competition.)
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 16, 2017 12:11:43 GMT -5
(Celo) 88 cent triangle has formed May 8th to present.
break and hold of what looks like $1.60 + .88 = $2.48.
good luck to us all.
www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time
(Afrezza is an excellent insulin.
The pharmacy purchasing manufactures and insures have tried their best to Bankrupt the competition.)
Aug. 16 at 9:19 AM NatesNotes Nate Pile $MNKD @bacon_sarnie and on barely over 1M shares! Don't forget - "The Crowd is large... and shares are scarce." ;-) |
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Post by babaoriley on Aug 16, 2017 12:38:39 GMT -5
Easy explanation, Sports busted her Piggy Bank.  |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 16, 2017 13:06:30 GMT -5
Easy explanation, Sports busted her Piggy Bank. Lol, just a little profit from my LL calls:-) |
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Post by kite on Aug 16, 2017 13:14:35 GMT -5
What's going on with this stock today?? I'm glad I bought more shares a few days ago as well. It's exciting to watch! I'm wondering if there are any good news
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Post by peppy on Aug 16, 2017 13:20:03 GMT -5
What's going on with this stock today?? I'm glad I bought more shares a few days ago as well. It's exciting to watch! I'm wondering if there are any good news options expiry today. The settlement the next three days. (Three days to settle.) that is the increased volume as well.
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