Volume too

[sportsrancho]

Sept 24, 2017 7:33:17 GMT -5 cjm18 said:

Looks like they are Waiting for the label change to dilute. The perfect trade would be buy dips now and sell the label change news. The lack of volume on Friday after scripts came out is telling as was the 75% short interest.

Except that it seems everyone is thinking that. Not sure about it playing that way.

[promann]

Sept 24, 2017 8:26:54 GMT -5 lennymnkd said:

Will the study , LAKERS posted / 60 patents ... four weeks , time in range , CGM to be completed on OCT 15 have any effect on label delay : on or before sept 29th ?

I hope not! If this was true and management already knows that the label change  will be delayed, that's material news which would have to be reported. One would think anyways..

[peppy]

1 million shares real time, 15 prior to the half.
low volume.
$1.88 minus 7 cents
www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time
label date days away

    

[joeypotsandpans]

No shares available to borrow at the world's largest DTC clearing house. So the 52k traded at the lows looks like more of the same charade

cha·rade
SHəˈrād/Submit
noun
an absurd pretense intended to create a pleasant or respectable appearance.

Key words being, absurd pretense intended appearance

[centralcoastinvestor]

Sept 26, 2017 11:50:08 GMT -5 joeypotsandpans said:

No shares available to borrow at the world's largest DTC clearing house. So the 52k traded at the lows looks like more of the same charade

cha·rade
SHəˈrād/Submit
noun
an absurd pretense intended to create a pleasant or respectable appearance.

Key words being, absurd pretense intended appearance

As we all know, it doesn't matter if there are any shares to borrow.  That's what selling naked shares is for, right.  I believe current law allows market makers to sell naked shares to provide "balance" to the market.  What a scam.  It is my understanding that the short volume has been 70% over the last couple of days.  This extended drop is fake.  These are not real shares being sold.  Drives me nuts that this is allowed.

[mytakeonit]

So you're saying that shorts need to drop their shorts so I can buy real naked shares? Okay ... Well, I just hope the shorts can get the pps down below a buck now ... so I can buy a few more tons of naked shares before the label news kicks in.

What happens when the shorts can't cover these naked shares later Do we get an overload in the prison system ... or, does the burden fall on the brokerage houses that allowed the naked shares?

Should be interesting real soon !!!

[derek2]

what do you define as a naked short? More importantly, what do those purporting to feed you data define as a naked short? A short sale that the broker allows and locates the shares 5 minutes later?

An hour later? A day? Because the volume fails to deliver (after 3 days) is low and gets totally resolved quite frequently. Some would have you believe that there's some multiple of the entire float that is naked shorted in perpetuity. Not so. Not even near. The quantity of oustanding fails as of August 30 was 54,492 shares, with a high of 168K for the whole second half of August.

Naked shorting has almost no play when it comes to MNKD stock, wishful thinking aside. The numbers just don't support it, unless you count a trade that gets executed and then shares located within minutes as an evil naked short, when in fact it's just the brokerage taking a bit of risk to facilitate a trade.

[Omega]

Sept 26, 2017 15:04:44 GMT -5 derek2 said:

what do you define as a naked short? More importantly, what do those purporting to feed you data define as a naked short? A short sale that the broker allows and locates the shares 5 minutes later?

An hour later? A day? Because the volume fails to deliver (after 3 days) is low and gets totally resolved quite frequently. Some would have you believe that there's some multiple of the entire float that is naked shorted in perpetuity. Not so. Not even near. The quantity of oustanding fails as of August 30 was 54,492 shares, with a high of 168K for the whole second half of August.

Naked shorting has almost no play when it comes to MNKD stock, wishful thinking aside. The numbers just don't support it, unless you count a trade that gets executed and then shares located within minutes as an evil naked short, when in fact it's just the brokerage taking a bit of risk to facilitate a trade.

Shares Short 21M
www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nasdaqshort-highlites.html

Daily Trading Volume Avg is around 3M

So the 21M shares have no play when it comes to SP either?

[ghochr]

Sept 26, 2017 15:04:44 GMT -5 derek2 said:

what do you define as a naked short? More importantly, what do those purporting to feed you data define as a naked short? A short sale that the broker allows and locates the shares 5 minutes later?

An hour later? A day? Because the volume fails to deliver (after 3 days) is low and gets totally resolved quite frequently. Some would have you believe that there's some multiple of the entire float that is naked shorted in perpetuity. Not so. Not even near. The quantity of oustanding fails as of August 30 was 54,492 shares, with a high of 168K for the whole second half of August.

Naked shorting has almost no play when it comes to MNKD stock, wishful thinking aside. The numbers just don't support it, unless you count a trade that gets executed and then shares located within minutes as an evil naked short, when in fact it's just the brokerage taking a bit of risk to facilitate a trade.

Well said but that's what people on the naked short train doesn't want to hear even though it's simple and you have data to prove the number of outstanding fail to deliver.

I don't remember the user but some thing like Jude that has this whole theory of naked short volume

And done of the longs orders here could have been filled by those naked short volume and located in few seconds

SMH but then the whole world and market is against the retail share holders and is a big conspiracy and the shorts already had made their money by sucking out 3.8 billion from the peak

[derek2]

Sept 26, 2017 17:34:21 GMT -5 ghochr said:

Sept 26, 2017 15:04:44 GMT -5 derek2 said:

what do you define as a naked short? More importantly, what do those purporting to feed you data define as a naked short? A short sale that the broker allows and locates the shares 5 minutes later?

An hour later? A day? Because the volume fails to deliver (after 3 days) is low and gets totally resolved quite frequently. Some would have you believe that there's some multiple of the entire float that is naked shorted in perpetuity. Not so. Not even near. The quantity of oustanding fails as of August 30 was 54,492 shares, with a high of 168K for the whole second half of August.

Naked shorting has almost no play when it comes to MNKD stock, wishful thinking aside. The numbers just don't support it, unless you count a trade that gets executed and then shares located within minutes as an evil naked short, when in fact it's just the brokerage taking a bit of risk to facilitate a trade.

Well said but that's what people on the naked short train doesn't want to hear even though it's simple and you have data to prove the number of outstanding fail to deliver.

I don't remember the user but some thing like Jude that has this whole theory of naked short volume

And done of the longs orders here could have been filled by those naked short volume and located in few seconds

SMH but then the whole world and market is against the retail share holders and is a big conspiracy and the shorts already had made their money by sucking out 3.8 billion from the peak

Darrell (dejude42) is a good guy, but I disagree with him on this issue.

No doubt there are abuses, but the evidence isn't there for MNKD.

[derek2]

Sept 26, 2017 15:43:49 GMT -5 Omega said:

Sept 26, 2017 15:04:44 GMT -5 derek2 said:

what do you define as a naked short? More importantly, what do those purporting to feed you data define as a naked short? A short sale that the broker allows and locates the shares 5 minutes later?

An hour later? A day? Because the volume fails to deliver (after 3 days) is low and gets totally resolved quite frequently. Some would have you believe that there's some multiple of the entire float that is naked shorted in perpetuity. Not so. Not even near. The quantity of oustanding fails as of August 30 was 54,492 shares, with a high of 168K for the whole second half of August.

Naked shorting has almost no play when it comes to MNKD stock, wishful thinking aside. The numbers just don't support it, unless you count a trade that gets executed and then shares located within minutes as an evil naked short, when in fact it's just the brokerage taking a bit of risk to facilitate a trade.

Shares Short 21M
www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nasdaqshort-highlites.html

Daily Trading Volume Avg is around 3M

So the 21M shares have no play when it comes to SP either?

I've shown several times that there's no correlation - positive or negative - between changes in outstanding short interest and price. It's just noise. This is valid whether you measure at day of trade or day of clearing (trade + 3).

If short interest goes up does price go down? Nope
If short interest goes down does price go down? Nope
If short interest goes up does price go up? Nope
If short interest goes down does price go up? Nope

No predictive power.

Naked shorting has no effect on MNKD stock price.

Mar 23, 2015 at 10:53am otherottawaguy, brentie, and 2 more like this QuoteEditlikePost Options Post by dereklinders on Mar 23, 2015 at 10:53am


I did some analysis over the weekend as a follow-up to my analysis on change in outstanding short shares vs share price.



If you remember, I took the bi-weekly short shares outstanding report and charted the change in short position versus the change in share price over those two weeks. The result was no correlation. Not positive correlation, not negative correlation. A drunken walk with no predictive power at all. That is to say, if short interest increased, the share price could go up or down. If the short interest decreased, the share price could go up or down.


That is to say, the evil short cabal has no effect on the share price - and why should it? The changes in short interest, positive or negative, represent a small fraction of share volume, and the effect is swamped by normal reading activity. It's like trying to burst a levee by peeing in the river.

Well, some folks don't let go of POV easily, and had some concerns.


1. The data wasn't granular enough, as each datum represented a 2-week period, and lots of effect could be hidden within. Daily would be better.

2. The real bette noir of the markets, the evil naked short, who distorts the market with virtual shares, is not identified. that's what you need to measure.


Well, okay then. Here's part 2 of "Short sellers have no effect on MNKD share price". BTW - I'll follow up this post with the raw data so that you can see for yourself.


Methodology:


I went to www.sec.gov/foia/docs/failsdata.htm#.VRASYvnF-BI and selected "Archive". I downloaded the 24 files from 2014 fail to deliver reports (they're published every two weeks, with daily data). i appended them together in Excel and filtered for symbol "MNKD". I then took these results to a new spreadsheet.


IMPORTANT NOTE:

The Quantity (Fails) column is NOT additive. It's the total outstanding fails. That is to say, you don't add up this table and say "Holy cow! 7 Million shares naked shorted! Nope. In this case, the max was 1.97 million shares on Jan 22, which quickly came down to 660K the next day (brokerages with stock on the FTD list are forbidden to allow clients to short that stock until the FTD is cleared, so they are motivated to find shares.) This is a common mis-understanding, and one promulgated by some charlatans wanting to perpetuate the fairy tale of the short boogeyman. Don't fall for it.

I added columns for daily change in quantity and daily change in price, since common folklore would predict that an increase in fail to deliver amount would result in a decrease in share price. Right?

Given that a fail to deliver hits this report a day after the settlement date (since the broker has until the end of the settlement date to deliver the lent shares), I moved the Quantity (fails) back four days to make sure that the date of those short sales without lent shares (naked shorts) would match the date of the price effect (3 days to clear, 1 day to make the FTD report). I also looked at the effect if I kept the dates as-is or back just one day, just as a sanity check.

So now I have DAILY data (240 data points for 2014) that shows the daily change in naked shorting and daily change in share price.

Results:

I calculated the correlation coefficient (r) value between (change in naked shorted shares) and (change in stock price)

If there was any effect, you would expect an r-value of at least 0.5 or -0.5 .

How to Interpret a Correlation Coefficient r

By Deborah J. Rumsey, PhD from Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition


In statistics, the correlation coefficient r measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables on a scatterplot. The value of r is always between +1 and –1. To interpret its value, see which of the following values your correlation r is closest to:

Exactly –1. A perfect downhill (negative) linear relationship

–0.70. A strong downhill (negative) linear relationship

–0.50. A moderate downhill (negative) relationship

–0.30. A weak downhill (negative) linear relationship

0. No linear relationship

+0.30. A weak uphill (positive) linear relationship

+0.50. A moderate uphill (positive) relationship

+0.70. A strong uphill (positive) linear relationship

Exactly +1. A perfect uphill (positive) linear relationship

My results:

An r-value of 0.042
Almost zero.

It shows that there is no relationship between the daily change in naked shorted shares and share price.

Once again, it's not surprising. The change in FTD (a proxy for # of naked short shares in a day) is swamped by the daily volume. Again, peeing in a river hoping to flood it.

I hope this shows you proof that if you're looking for a reason for volatility in MNKD's share price, it isn't because of short sellers.

1. Short volume doesn't affect share price.

2. Naked shorting doesn't affect share price.

3. message boards don't affect share price (otherwise those on my ignore list would be rich)


Believe truth backed up by proof, not fairy tales and folklore. You'll be at an advantage to the market.

[joeypotsandpans]

This should help remind some on days like yesterday and today, I like how he puts it in layman's terms so for those that are tired of seeing it, it is the blog article Hudson wrote about days like today coexisting with a large short holding:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market

Bottom line, for all the recent aliens that joined the board this isn't a yahoo msg. board and it won't be turned into one. If there were true long liquidation then those shares would either be available shares to borrow or sold to covering shares that have been lent out. If I am being told there are no shares to borrow than it appears most of what Hudson writes about how the shares are pitched back and forth to temporarily control s/p should be evident on low volume days like this.

[joeypotsandpans]

Sept 27, 2017 9:28:58 GMT -5 joeypotsandpans said:

This should help remind some on days like yesterday and today, I like how he puts it in layman's terms so for those that are tired of seeing it, it is the blog article Hudson wrote about days like today coexisting with a large short holding:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market

Bottom line, for all the recent aliens that joined the board this isn't a yahoo msg. board and it won't be turned into one. If there were true long liquidation then those shares would either be available shares to borrow or sold to covering shares that have been lent out. If I am being told there are no shares to borrow than it appears most of what Hudson writes about how the shares are pitched back and forth to temporarily control s/p should be evident on low volume days like this.

I show 5.56k calls for the 10/6 expiration opened today at the 2 strike....so big hedge? big bet? error on my screen? am I seeing things lol....for a fairly quiet day.. surely if it was not offset and part of the MM circle jerk because as those blank faces we all know and love have stated "there is no manipulation on this security" please take quoted portion with a good amount of sarcasm. The wheels on the bus continue to go round and round, again ask yourself why didn't they exit the bus at .13/sh?








[dreamboatcruise]

Sept 27, 2017 16:52:33 GMT -5 joeypotsandpans said:

Sept 27, 2017 9:28:58 GMT -5 joeypotsandpans said:

This should help remind some on days like yesterday and today, I like how he puts it in layman's terms so for those that are tired of seeing it, it is the blog article Hudson wrote about days like today coexisting with a large short holding:

seekingalpha.com/instablog/2918951-g-hudson/1026551-how-the-big-players-manipulate-the-stock-market

Bottom line, for all the recent aliens that joined the board this isn't a yahoo msg. board and it won't be turned into one. If there were true long liquidation then those shares would either be available shares to borrow or sold to covering shares that have been lent out. If I am being told there are no shares to borrow than it appears most of what Hudson writes about how the shares are pitched back and forth to temporarily control s/p should be evident on low volume days like this.

I show 5.56k calls for the 10/6 expiration opened today at the 2 strike....so big hedge? big bet? error on my screen? am I seeing things lol....for a fairly quiet day.. surely if it was not offset and part of the MM circle jerk because as those blank faces we all know and love have stated "there is no manipulation on this security" please take quoted portion with a good amount of sarcasm. The wheels on the bus continue to go round and round, again ask yourself why didn't they exit the bus at .13/sh?








Some smart shorts probably did exit much lower than where we are now.  I would imagine they use trailing stops just like longs often do.  Hopefully some of the longs got in much lower, as they would probably be easier to scare out of their positions.

But as you elude to, there likely are a lot of traders simply playing the volatility... I think less manipulation from true MM than from hedge funds and other momentum traders.  I sometimes get the feeling MM is simply used here to reference traders rather than investors.

It could be that the trade is part of playing what now is getting set up to be a binary event.  Though it seems like we have many more possible outcomes than just two in reality.

[mnkdfann]

Sept 27, 2017 16:52:33 GMT -5 joeypotsandpans said:

I show 5.56k calls for the 10/6 expiration opened today at the 2 strike....so big hedge? big bet? error on my screen? am I seeing things lol....for a fairly quiet day.. surely if it was not offset and part of the MM circle jerk because as those blank faces we all know and love have stated "there is no manipulation on this security" please take quoted portion with a good amount of sarcasm. The wheels on the bus continue to go round and round, again ask yourself why didn't they exit the bus at .13/sh?

Even at 0.13/sh there was a market cap of 10s of millions of dollars. Why would professional shorts leave that much on the table if they believed at the time it was going even lower (even to zero)? (That's like asking, why didn't every long sell at $10 a share back in 2014?)

You can argue that they got it wrong and shorts SHOULD have covered then, but investors of all sorts (long and short) make mistakes in timing with hindsight.