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Post by mnholdem on Mar 17, 2017 9:10:03 GMT -5
Don't be surprised if MannKind announces a restructured debt agreement with Deerfield in the coming months. And that's about like restructuring one's debt to a loan shark or a bookie... usually involves some pain. I'm flinching as we speak waiting to have my retirement knee caps whacked with a baseball bat. Not necessarily, my friend. A few months ago, I posted information about royalty-based financing. MannKind need only give a small percentage of future profits in exchange for pushing the debt payments out a few years. Look at it from Deerfield's POV for a minute. Afrezza, if successful in the market, will validate the Technosphere pulmonary drug delivery system, thereby increasing the value of MannKind's IP. Since Deerfield lays claim to that IP as collateral, it's in their best interest to help MannKind succeed.
In exchange for a restructured agreement, MannKind would pay royalties to Deerfield from sales of Afrezza and one or possibly all of their API-TS that come to market. It's non-dilutive and doesn't burden Deerfield with any more risk than is already there.
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Post by promann on Mar 17, 2017 9:33:14 GMT -5
And that's about like restructuring one's debt to a loan shark or a bookie... usually involves some pain. I'm flinching as we speak waiting to have my retirement knee caps whacked with a baseball bat. Not necessarily, my friend. A few months ago, I posted information about royalty-based financing. MannKind need only give a small percentage of future profits in exchange for pushing the debt payments out a few years. Look at it from Deerfield's POV for a minute. Afrezza, if successful in the market, will validate the Technosphere pulmonary drug delivery system, thereby increasing the value of MannKind's IP. Since Deerfield lays claim to that IP as collateral, it's in their best interest to help MannKind succeed.
In exchange for a restructured agreement, MannKind would pay royalties to Deerfield from sales of Afrezza and one or possibly all of their API-TS that come to market. It's non-dilutive and doesn't burden Deerfield with any more risk than is already there.
Deerfield is the one that negotiated the partnership with Sanofi and for their efforts we owe them money.. I would think MNKD may have a case to restructure the money owed in MNKDs favor seeing how badly the partnership went that Deerfield negotiated..
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Post by surplusvalue on Mar 17, 2017 9:35:12 GMT -5
Matt mentioned the percentage of the contractorrs kept. I thought he said a number much lower than 60% on today's call. Even if we kept half of them that would only be 25 reps. We have between 80 and 100 now. I think for many reasons we are much better off now.The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back?
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 17, 2017 9:51:45 GMT -5
And that's about like restructuring one's debt to a loan shark or a bookie... usually involves some pain. I'm flinching as we speak waiting to have my retirement knee caps whacked with a baseball bat. Not necessarily, my friend. A few months ago, I posted information about royalty-based financing. MannKind need only give a small percentage of future profits in exchange for pushing the debt payments out a few years. Look at it from Deerfield's POV for a minute. Afrezza, if successful in the market, will validate the Technosphere pulmonary drug delivery system, thereby increasing the value of MannKind's IP. Since Deerfield lays claim to that IP as collateral, it's in their best interest to help MannKind succeed.
In exchange for a restructured agreement, MannKind would pay royalties to Deerfield from sales of Afrezza and one or possibly all of their API-TS that come to market. It's non-dilutive and doesn't burden Deerfield with any more risk than is already there.
I think that is what the Deerfield agreement already is. Mannkind sold them $90 million in milestone payments as part of the 2013 agreement. Mannkind current has them as a long term liability at $9 million (fair value of $18.2 million) so Deerfield may not be keen to repeat the experience!
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Post by cyn on Mar 17, 2017 10:05:51 GMT -5
kbrion writes... "Scripts increase will maybe increase share price but then you will just get dilution. Mannkind needs to have an Apple getting $150M from Microsoft moment right now."
kb, totally agree. I also anticipate more dilution even with improving sales unless MNKD can demonstrate an "explosive" increase to entice a "Microsoft-like" partner in the next 6 months. The scam Sanofi partnership and launch caused a huge obstacle going forward in attracting partners in the required time to extend the operational cash runway. Sanofi had MNKD over a barrel when it came to negotiating settlement outcomes; and unfortunately imo Sanofi's stink continues to hoover over and impair MNKD's recovery. Future shareholder dilution seems inevitable barring a huge, unprecedented increase in Afrezza sales. JMHO
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 17, 2017 10:16:59 GMT -5
Even if we kept half of them that would only be 25 reps. We have between 80 and 100 now. I think for many reasons we are much better off now.The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back? You and I both know it's too early to decide if the new sales team is making headway. Next 8 weeks will be crucial for mnkd to increase scripts. If not numbers don't lie...agree
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Post by slugworth008 on Mar 17, 2017 10:21:48 GMT -5
Even if we kept half of them that would only be 25 reps. We have between 80 and 100 now. I think for many reasons we are much better off now.The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back? I too am unhappy with script numbers. But it's too early to judge the new sales team IMO.
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 17, 2017 10:22:23 GMT -5
kbrion writes... "Scripts increase will maybe increase share price but then you will just get dilution. Mannkind needs to have an Apple getting $150M from Microsoft moment right now." kb, totally agree. I also anticipate more dilution even with improving sales unless MNKD can demonstrate an "explosive" increase to entice a "Microsoft-like" partner in the next 6 months. The scam Sanofi partnership and launch caused a huge obstacle going forward in attracting partners in the required time to extend the operational cash runway. Sanofi had MNKD over a barrel when it came to negotiating settlement outcomes; and unfortunately imo Sanofi's stink continues to hoover over and impair MNKD's recovery. Future shareholder dilution seems inevitable barring a huge, unprecedented increase in Afrezza sales. JMHO Agree as well. Increased scripts will open many doors. Which door(s) will mnkd open? Yes, Dilution door is one door. Other doors will open...
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2017 10:24:29 GMT -5
Even if we kept half of them that would only be 25 reps. We have between 80 and 100 now. I think for many reasons we are much better off now.The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back? part of the reason is MPR - Medical possession ratio... So fewer refills due to larger boxes. The old team started July and had an impact into october - so about 2 months.. So may be the new team pushes the scripts starting April as most of them seem to be from Sanofi with 4 or more years of experience with established contacts?
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Post by surplusvalue on Mar 17, 2017 10:24:51 GMT -5
The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back? You and I both know it's too early to decide if the new sales team is making headway. Next 8 weeks will be crucial for mnkd to increase scripts. If not numbers don't lie...agree By headway do you mean achieving what half the sales force achieved before? I dont call that an improvement. Because 10 weeks into 2017 they cant even do that with double the personnel.
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Post by saxcmann on Mar 17, 2017 10:31:42 GMT -5
You and I both know it's too early to decide if the new sales team is making headway. Next 8 weeks will be crucial for mnkd to increase scripts. If not numbers don't lie...agree By headway do you mean achieving what half the sales force achieved before? I dont call that an improvement. Because 10 weeks into 2017 they cant even do that. Headway=week over week increases. Get close to Sanofi numbers and we got doors opening...
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Post by surplusvalue on Mar 17, 2017 10:33:41 GMT -5
The numbers seem to tell otherwise. This new salesforce that Matt and Mike have been pumping about cant even break 250 scripts a week. The old contract sales force did better all of December and almost all of October and November with half the people than this new "improved" sales team. Its really very pathetic given the other factors that have improved like coverage and lesser demands on PA. The new sales team looks to be less rather than more effective. If this keeps up how soon will it be before we are wishing we had the old sales team back? part of the reason is MPR - Medical possession ratio... So fewer refills due to larger boxes. The old team started July and had an impact into october - so about 2 months.. So may be the new team pushes the scripts starting April as most of them seem to be from Sanofi with 4 or more years of experience with established contacts? Sorry but Aug and Sept scripts were better than they have been since Jan as well so it didnt take two months to have an impact. By the 22 July they were already higher than they are now. The performance of the new sales team speaks for itself in comparison with double the personnel.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 17, 2017 10:37:27 GMT -5
And that's about like restructuring one's debt to a loan shark or a bookie... usually involves some pain. I'm flinching as we speak waiting to have my retirement knee caps whacked with a baseball bat. The restructuring was one thing I heard a.k.a "if we can find non-dilutive" I think is what he said. The good news is they have cash to pay the electric bills for awhile. But its always good to have more available cash. Maybe only one of your knee caps will get whacked. Good luck "finding" someone that will loan without a lot of warrants and/or death spiral like terms is what I'd say to Matt. Truly wish him good luck.
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Post by derek2 on Mar 17, 2017 10:38:15 GMT -5
Not necessarily, my friend. A few months ago, I posted information about royalty-based financing. MannKind need only give a small percentage of future profits in exchange for pushing the debt payments out a few years. Look at it from Deerfield's POV for a minute. Afrezza, if successful in the market, will validate the Technosphere pulmonary drug delivery system, thereby increasing the value of MannKind's IP. Since Deerfield lays claim to that IP as collateral, it's in their best interest to help MannKind succeed.
In exchange for a restructured agreement, MannKind would pay royalties to Deerfield from sales of Afrezza and one or possibly all of their API-TS that come to market. It's non-dilutive and doesn't burden Deerfield with any more risk than is already there.
Deerfield is the one that negotiated the partnership with Sanofi and for their efforts we owe them money.. I would think MNKD may have a case to restructure the money owed in MNKDs favor seeing how badly the partnership went that Deerfield negotiated.. Greenhill was the matchmaker www.greenhill.com/content/mannkind-corporation
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Post by kbrion77 on Mar 17, 2017 10:39:08 GMT -5
By headway do you mean achieving what half the sales force achieved before? I dont call that an improvement. Because 10 weeks into 2017 they cant even do that. Headway=week over week increases. Get close to Sanofi numbers and we got doors opening... For moral purposes I guess that would be positive but talking numbers even at Sanofi's peak weeks it would still be less than $25M a year in revenue which would still be viewed as a failing product in Wall Street's eyes.
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