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Post by cretin11 on Mar 31, 2017 14:45:25 GMT -5
What are the scripts reported in? 1000's? 10,000's? These don't make any sense to me. AMRN had 23,000 last week and that was OK. So, if MNKD had 256,000 scripts, that seems pretty good. Why is everyone saying they are very bad scripts? We expected a million by now, not a mere quarter million. C'mon fanz. |
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Post by fanz8967 on Mar 31, 2017 15:45:47 GMT -5
Jeez, They need a million a week to make a profit? I thought it was would be a million a year. No wonder they are going broke. All the rest of the bios I buy only need like 30,000-40,000 scripts a week to make a profit. Maybe they should raise the price or cut their costs?
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 1, 2017 7:43:57 GMT -5
Fanz:
Not sure where you got your numbers from or if you are just stirring the FUD pot.
So for you and anyone else that cares, here are some rough numbers for Breakeven.
Current Burn Rate: 10M / month
Annual Burn Rate: 120M
30 Day Patient Cost: 600
Profit to Mannkind: 150
30d Prescriptions Required for breakeven: 120M/150 = 800K
90d Prescriptions Required: 267k (annually)
Weekly TRX Required: 267 / 52 = 5128
Roughly speaking MNKD needs 5200 total prescription per week to break even at current price structure.
This corresponds to approximately 67700 patients using Afrezza.
Note: Danbury plant with 3 lines has current max capacity of 500k annual patients.
OOG
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Post by cjm18 on Apr 1, 2017 9:19:25 GMT -5
Fanz: Not sure where you got your numbers from or if you are just stirring the FUD pot. So for you and anyone else that cares, here are some rough numbers for Breakeven. Current Burn Rate: 10M / month Annual Burn Rate: 120M 30 Day Patient Cost: 600 Profit to Mannkind: 150 30d Prescriptions Required for breakeven: 120M/150 = 800K 90d Prescriptions Required: 267k (annually) Weekly TRX Required: 267 / 52 = 5128 Roughly speaking MNKD needs 5200 total prescription per week to break even at current price structure. This corresponds to approximately 67700 patients using Afrezza. Note: Danbury plant with 3 lines has current max capacity of 500k annual patients. OOG Thanks. So most precsxriptions are 90 days? Otherwise we need more? Castagna: There are over 22M Type 1 and Type 2 people with diabetes who are in treatment and over 4 Million of them are on meal-time insulin. The average territory has over 55,000 insulin prescriptions in their territory per quarter. Kam: Are they concentrated in a particular geographic area or are they spread out nationwide? Castagna: They are extremely focused in key markets that will directly impact ~50% of the meal-time insulin market and indirectly impact another 10-20%. |
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Post by saxcmann on Apr 1, 2017 9:37:36 GMT -5
Fanz: Not sure where you got your numbers from or if you are just stirring the FUD pot. So for you and anyone else that cares, here are some rough numbers for Breakeven. Current Burn Rate: 10M / month Annual Burn Rate: 120M 30 Day Patient Cost: 600 Profit to Mannkind: 150 30d Prescriptions Required for breakeven: 120M/150 = 800K 90d Prescriptions Required: 267k (annually) Weekly TRX Required: 267 / 52 = 5128 Roughly speaking MNKD needs 5200 total prescription per week to break even at current price structure. This corresponds to approximately 67700 patients using Afrezza. Note: Danbury plant with 3 lines has current max capacity of 500k annual patients. OOG Thanks. So most precsxriptions are 90 days? Otherwise we need more? Castagna: There are over 22M Type 1 and Type 2 people with diabetes who are in treatment and over 4 Million of them are on meal-time insulin. The average territory has over 55,000 insulin prescriptions in their territory per quarter. Kam: Are they concentrated in a particular geographic area or are they spread out nationwide? Castagna: They are extremely focused in key markets that will directly impact ~50% of the meal-time insulin market and indirectly impact another 10-20%. I'll take 1%...🤔 |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 1, 2017 10:28:49 GMT -5
30 Day Patient Cost: 600 Profit to Mannkind: 150 That's the list price for Afrezza and not what is paid for it by insurers isn't it? The real number should be a lot lower. |
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 2, 2017 5:41:32 GMT -5
Hence why the profit is only 25% of the list price, takes into account: the discounts, pharmacy markups and the variable costs of production.
OOG
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 2, 2017 9:27:30 GMT -5
Hence why the profit is only 25% of the list price, takes into account: the discounts, pharmacy markups and the variable costs of production. OOG I don't think anyone knows what the gross profit margin is on Afrezza at the various volume points. For example today the cost of producing Afrezza exceeds the sales price because the volume of sales is low so we lose money for each box sold (we can see this in the accounts filed). At 5000 prescriptions per week the cost of production would be smaller but would it be small enough to be profitable? That's hard to know without more information than we have. As it stands 25% is an arbitrary number and could be 20% or 30%, or even 5%, with equal validity. |
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Post by cjm18 on Apr 2, 2017 9:45:22 GMT -5
The prices listed on symphony is retail I presume. It's above 600 now.
From the last conference call. I can't make sense of the numbers.
"During the fourth quarter, we received $10.2 million from the sale of insulin to Sanofi, $4.8 million from sales and shipments of Afrezza, $2.2 million from sales of surplus insulin to a third-party"
For the full-year 2016, net revenue was $174.8 million, comprised primarily of $172 million of net revenue from collaboration with Sanofi. Net revenue from commercial product sales was $1.9 million related to Afrezza product dispensed to patients after giving effect to gross to net adjustments on gross revenue of $2.7 million.
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Post by sr71 on Apr 2, 2017 12:35:46 GMT -5
For those who tried Afrezza and then dropped that treatment, it seems it would be important for Mike and Matt to determine what treatment(s), if any, that such patients have chosen subsequently, and more importantly WHY. This might provide new insights as to what these former Afrezza patients consider preferable regarding the later non-Afrezza treatments, which could be used to directly address their perceptions regarding Afrezza. Of course that would require one-on-one interactions between Mannkind's hired nurse practitioners and the (former) patients, including meaningful follow-up dialogue.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Apr 2, 2017 12:44:25 GMT -5
Aged: I would agree with you that it is an somewhat of an arbitary number. The $150 is what I calculate as left after the COGS and Marketing Costs (i.e what is avail to cover the Fixed costs). And yes, I agree that MNKD is not making enough to cover those. The costs to produce have been calculated by others: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2426/afrezza-production-cost?page=2(see fugacity calcs) As per above post Profit Margin was calculated at 27% of retail price and have been using it since. I therefore calculate Profit before fixed costs as follows (contribution margin per box): Standard 30 day supply: $325 Experienced Patient: 150% X 325 = 487.5 (allowing for followups and adjustments as required) 487.5 * 27% = 131.62 (i'll even knock this down to $125) So breakeven under these numbers: 30 Day: 120M / 125 = 960k / 52 = 18461 90 Day: 18461 / 3 = 6153 Weekly NRX (of 3 month prescription) = 6153 (off by a 1000, my bad). Put this in context of the US market where 1% of the population (3M patients) are Type 1. We need 0.2% of the market to break even. Where would MNKD be at 1% of the global market? Not sure at this point if we will ever see that. If you care to provide an alternate calculation please feel free. OOG |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 2, 2017 13:48:26 GMT -5
The prices listed on symphony is retail I presume. It's above 600 now. From the last conference call. I can't make sense of the numbers. "During the fourth quarter, we received $10.2 million from the sale of insulin to Sanofi, $4.8 million from sales and shipments of Afrezza, $2.2 million from sales of surplus insulin to a third-party" For the full-year 2016, net revenue was $174.8 million, comprised primarily of $172 million of net revenue from collaboration with Sanofi. Net revenue from commercial product sales was $1.9 million related to Afrezza product dispensed to patients after giving effect to gross to net adjustments on gross revenue of $2.7 million. The accounts are a bit messy because of the write down. The 8K is a better document to look at because it covers the last 3 months of 2016 when Sanofi was out of the picture. They split out Afrezza sales (Net revenue – commercial product sales) for that period an in the last three months it was $1.3 million. The Cost of Goods Sold was $1.5 million but this is a bit misleading because usually it would include material however they wrote of the value of the materials in that big write down. This makes the cost of materials is zero which obviously is not real. Looking at the prior year I think those material costs should be around $2 million per quarter. My best guess is that today we are selling Afrezza for a $200k loss per quarter. Once we start having to buy materials again it would be $2.2 million but hopefully by then the sales would be higher which would reduce the component attributed to underutilization. |
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 2, 2017 13:59:57 GMT -5
Where would MNKD be at 1% of the global market? Not sure at this point if we will ever see that. Personally I will be on a beach in the Bahamas  I cannot provide different projections because I don't have the data as production ramps up. I can provide numbers that show today it costs more to make than we sell it for. That is an artifact of the low sales number though. There is also the fact that all the materials have been written down to zero so we are not currently showing their cost in the production numbers - once we need to buy more materials that will change sharply. |
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Post by madog365 on Apr 25, 2017 14:46:54 GMT -5
Going to paraphrase from the Q4 earnings presentation some of the key initiatives that Mike laid out: - On the size of the salesforce: "approximately 3X of where we were last year in terms of where we expect to make impact. And we still have few more openings, I think, six or seven."
- On nurse educators: "We transition to a per day nurse educator model. And so now we have almost 80 nurse educators across the country who will help to a per day in training and/or education in office"
- On reality show sponsorship: "we’ve partnered with third-party, such as Charles Mattocks who’s putting a reality show on for diabetes on this Discovery Life in the summer. That will be one of the first time you will see our TV commercial aired. It’s part of our sponsorship. We are going to get exclusive commercials during that show."
- On Damon Dash: "He has genuinely taken an interest in the product and with diabetes and educating others around their diabetes health. He’ll be launching something called Dash diabetes network over the coming weeks and there will be targeted content launching out of that process"
- On in-doctor's office ads: I wanted to announce today the Outcome Health platform...You’ve got the TV in the doctor’s office....You have the billboard if you look on the left wall, there’s like electronic billboards that will rotate, and you have patient iPads in the office. So when you’re waiting for the doctor to come in, you have an iPad and in all those scenarios you will see a Afrezza branding and ads being placed. They have averaged over 155,000 doctors, obviously, we won’t be in all those offices. But we will be in a large percentage of our targets that have this capacity and capability in the office.
- On social media: We’ll be partnering with a leading third-party portal who works with patients and doctors. They have 6 million people with diabetes in their network, 2.2 million unique visitors a month to the properties, and all 30,000 of our targets for doctors who will be also being engaged
Lot's of exciting developments - will they finally get the word out? Ok we are officially over a month since this post. I still haven't seen any actual marketing of Afrezza and everything still seems to be in the future. Sales people NEED marketing support- this is cruel at this point to expect them to make headway alone. - Where is dash diabetes network? I see Damon's posts on working on various videos for this. I thought this would have launched weeks ago and it still seems to be a long way off.
- Where are the in-doctor's office ads, i remember Sports posting that her friend saw one. Has anyone else seen these ads? What is their impact and are they still ongoing?
- Where is the partnership with a leading third party portal? Why has there been no information about this in over a month?
- What is going on with the reality show? I see the trailer was posted on vimeo but why has there been no information from Discovery Life promoting the show. When is this actually airing?
- Why has all posting on the official Afrezza twitter pages completed ceased? The last post is on April 6th. Have they chalked up twitter as a failure?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 25, 2017 15:12:24 GMT -5
For those who tried Afrezza and then dropped that treatment, it seems it would be important for Mike and Matt to determine what treatment(s), if any, that such patients have chosen subsequently, and more importantly WHY. This might provide new insights as to what these former Afrezza patients consider preferable regarding the later non-Afrezza treatments, which could be used to directly address their perceptions regarding Afrezza. Of course that would require one-on-one interactions between Mannkind's hired nurse practitioners and the (former) patients, including meaningful follow-up dialogue. One would assume it would almost always be one of the three rapid acting pens. Unless a particular doctor is actually prescribing Afrezza earlier than guidelines would say it should be then the pens are the only logical substitute for Afrezza. |
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