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Post by ssiegel on Apr 22, 2017 10:34:25 GMT -5
IMHO Liane and OOG's work in this thread coupled with the statement from mnkd about cartridge delivery up 19% (quoted above) despite TRX being down slightly, make a real difference to the outlook here. This in my view at last gives rational backing to a conclusion that afrezza is in fact selling better than first appears and that there is more reason for optimism, on a logical rather than just hopeful basis. Ultimately what matters is revenues and profits. I'm still startled when I look at the 10-K and see they reported only 1.9 million in revenues from afrezza for the whole year. That doesn't cover even a week's worth of expenses. It's a little awe provoking to consider how much they'll have to sell to get cash flow positive. |
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Post by rockstarrick on Apr 22, 2017 10:39:41 GMT -5
Unfortunately lakers, there are some here that don't see anything but the shareprice, I'm glad I'm not one of them. Thanks for sharing. Rick, honestly you do not look at the share price? See your post on 16 March Under thread "volume too: "Nasdaq is showing 2.10 and CNBC showing 2.02"  I guess I'll put it this way, I don't let the shareprice trigger my emotions, like anger, to the point I start threads about firing Management and the BOD. As I said, I'm not happy with the sp, (I clearly stated that in a very recent post), but hey, do you think Matt or Mike are ??, can you imagine what it would look like if they reacted publicly to the sp the way some investors do. We just keep with the plan, (I believe they have one) and don't let the distractions sidetrack us, (now shorts and many long shareholders) and we will get where we need to be. You won't see me bitching about Mike or Matt, I can say to date, the only thing that has really fluffed my feathers was not having "Inhaled" in our description at good rx. Good Luck to you |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Apr 22, 2017 11:31:38 GMT -5
Rick, honestly you do not look at the share price? See your post on 16 March Under thread "volume too: "Nasdaq is showing 2.10 and CNBC showing 2.02" I guess I'll put it this way, I don't let the shareprice trigger my emotions, like anger, to the point I start threads about firing Management and the BOD. As I said, I'm not happy with the sp, (I clearly stated that in a very recent post), but hey, do you think Matt or Mike are ??, can you imagine what it would look like if they reacted publicly to the sp the way some investors do. We just keep with the plan, (I believe they have one) and don't let the distractions sidetrack us, (now shorts and many long shareholders) and we will get where we need to be. You won't see me bitching about Mike or Matt, I can say to date, the only thing that has really fluffed my feathers was not having "Inhaled" in our description at good rx. Good Luck to you "fluffed my feathers". I believe there are Proboard rules about using foul language. I think Liane will need to look into this phrase specifically. |
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Post by ssiegel on Apr 23, 2017 9:27:21 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Apr 23, 2017 9:57:25 GMT -5
Nice guidelines. (Not American diabetes association guidelines, very good working guidelines.) Insulin has been in use since the 1940's? analogues since the 1980's? Over time these guidelines were developed. It hasn't always been this way. Physicians like control. They like to write for dosage. Notice the guidelines guide by fasting glucose levels. Notice how high the levels are shown. Now consider with afrezza and basal, fasting glucose levels at 100?
The Mannkind titration videos show the physician ordering the titrations, yes. Also, I think we have to distinguish here between type one and type two.
From the guidelines you posted, and good point, nice guidelines: Type 2 Diabetes Adult Outpatient Insulin Guidelines
Sutter Medical Foundation. February 2011.
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Post by me on Apr 23, 2017 10:31:51 GMT -5
I have a question for the group. When Sanofi originally launched Afrezza, the number of cartridges in one prescription (one script) was 90. This was made up of 4 and 8 unit cartridges. Is this correct? Then MannKind took over sales and marketing. In February 2016, MannKind launched a 180 cartridge titration pack made up of 4s and 8s. Then recently, a new titration pack was launched that is made up of 180 cartridges of 60 each 4s,8s and 12s. Mike Castagna tweeted today the following statement: If you can look at total cartridges shipped and number of insulin units dispensed you get a better picture. It got got me to thinking about comparing apples to apples. If Sanofi at its peak sold 600 scripts in one week times 90 cartridges, that would be 54,000 cartridges at the peak. And those would have been 4s and 8s which meant that people had to refill more often. Meaning less people were actually patients but refilling more often. Today we we had close to 300 reported for last week. I would figure all those script numbers would be for the 180 cartridges pack for a total of 54,000 cartridges. It's the same as the Sanofi peak. And, it more patients than Sanofi had because people had to refill more often. Is my math off here or is MannKind currently selling as many cartridges as Sanofi did at its peak? CCI, I personally don't see how the number of cartridges previously dispensed versus today is relevant beyond the additional revenues generated. Since we can see the gross revenues generated, the number of cartridges becomes irrelevant. Whether there are 54,000 cartridges in 300 scripts or 600 scripts, the bottom line is the net revenue (Gross Profit) generated for MNKD. Right now, we have about 130 refills each week, which reasonably correlates with both a 30-day or 90-day lookback. Because of this correlation with both lookback periods (along with other unknowns), we don't know whether we have 500 or 1500 patients regularly using Afrezza. Regardless of the actual number, it has been generally flat for a long time, with the weekly gross revenues fluctuating between $170K and $200K. If Gross Profit is 30% to 40% of this, we're at about 3% +/- for breakeven regardless of the number of cartridges sold. I think the metric(s) to follow are number of scripts and (especially) revenues (even though we don't know what MNKD's actual GP% is). We already have enough unknowns embedded in these two numbers without having to try to figure out how to tease out the number of cartridges dispensed per script. Sadly, I think the issue of cartridge count was nothing more than a red herring. In the end, we (quickly) need revenues to begin showing a trend toward a 35-fold increase. Otherwise, sales ain't going to save us, regardless of cartridge count. |
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Post by anderson on Apr 23, 2017 17:39:46 GMT -5
Me, I agree with you scripts vs cartridges isn't what needs to be looked at but revenue which is staying pretty much constant. So either there is a set number of people using Afrezza or every time a new person starts someone quits. We are in a steady state, and I am unsure of why MNKD try as they might cant break out of it.
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