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Post by jonny80s on Jun 12, 2017 8:09:14 GMT -5
With Mike stating that the future of Mannkind is in the global market place... is he admitting that the US market is a lost cause and that we should never expect scripts to increase here in the good ol' USofA?
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Post by silentknight on Jun 12, 2017 8:15:27 GMT -5
That's the conclusion I'm beginning to draw from continued script numbers that cant break 300. I believe the best opportunity to penetrate the U.S. market has come and gone, barring a miraculous label change or potential pediatric use. If endos can be convinced with a definitive label improvement that Afrezza is better or if pediatricians can prescribe for children, we will likely see much improved numbers. Granted, DTC is needed but I believe the adult market has proven too tough to crack for MNKD.
That being said, if MNKD can penetrate global markets and get Afrezza approved in places like Asia and Europe, they could potentially make more money there. I applaud Mike for keeping focus on overseas, especially given the failure of the product in the U.S.
I think of Afrezza like many movies today. Some release in the U.S. and absolutely bomb, but make hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign markets and ultimately become successes. I'm hoping the analogy holds for the drug.
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Post by jonny80s on Jun 12, 2017 8:22:48 GMT -5
............ Which begs the question............. if you can't sell it in the US why in hell would you manufacture it in the US?
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Post by matt on Jun 12, 2017 8:24:59 GMT -5
The days are pretty much over where a drug can be launched and sold cost-effectively in a single market, even a market the size of the US. Either you are a global player, or you are road kill, and increasingly small pharmas are either merging with larger ones or they become road kill. The economics are fairly simple; once you have spent the money to compile a regulatory file the cost to get approval elsewhere is a fraction of the cost. It is still a substantial cost, but most countries accept the Common Technical Document which is an all electronic document containing the key information needed to get a drug approved and this is supplemented with country-specific additions (like foreign language label copy).
What is disappointing is that no global player has emerged as partner, and once a company starts carving out major markets like Brazil, it becomes almost impossible to attract a truly big partner for a global deal. Building international share with a coalition of different partners with different financial strengths and different priorities is a hard slog. Somebody at MNKD will have a few million frequent flyer miles when they are done.
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Post by peppy on Jun 12, 2017 8:25:49 GMT -5
With Mike stating that the future of Mannkind is in the global market place... is he admitting that the US market is a lost cause and that we should never expect scripts to increase here in the good ol' USofA? I do not see it the same way. label change and advertising coming. What I do think Afrezza saids about the us market place, is physicians are muscled by the powers that be.
www.screencast.com/t/5qWk4cK1c
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Post by silentknight on Jun 12, 2017 8:27:00 GMT -5
............ Which begs the question............. if you can't sell it in the US why in hell would you manufacture it in the US? Because MNKD has invested millions into the factory in Danbury and it would be too expensive to relocate it? Also, its geographical location along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. makes it a good location to enable easy export to international markets. Think the ports of New York/New Jersey, international airports (JFK/Newark) and the hubs of UPS/FedEx in each location. If pediatric approval is achieved here, the U.S. market could be lucrative. Until and if that happens, Afrezza will be a operating at a loss in my opinion. |
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Post by deaner3 on Jun 12, 2017 8:29:29 GMT -5
I would say they haven't been able to get in front of the majority of the doctors anyway. Most huge hospital chains have formulatry procedures that take forever to get through. Prob still waiting on those most places before they can even do intros.
Patience. Usa will come. But just have to have the cash to get there. It's the unknown. But they are acting in such a manner they aren't worried which is bullish. So we will see
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Post by pengiep on Jun 12, 2017 8:43:34 GMT -5
Why manufacture in the US? These come to mind: Sunk costs of already in place machinery and location. Reliable infrastructure- and the US is probably the cheapest place to manufacture a product that must meet GMP and other very high standards for production.
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Post by kuka on Jun 12, 2017 8:47:12 GMT -5
Al Mann was a visionary. He knew that Afrezza would eventually be the "Best Selling Drug of ALL TIME" ....he may be gone but his legacy and vision will go on...
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Post by silentknight on Jun 12, 2017 9:02:41 GMT -5
Al Mann was a visionary. He knew that Afrezza would eventually be the "Best Selling Drug of ALL TIME" ....he may be gone but his legacy and vision will go on... He may have been a visionary but he was very very wrong about Afrezza and what its sales would look like. The drug has been a commercial failure thus far and can't even come close to being the best selling prandial insulin in the U.S, let alone the best selling drug of all time. Please.... |
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Jun 12, 2017 9:10:35 GMT -5
Al Mann was a visionary. He knew that Afrezza would eventually be the "Best Selling Drug of ALL TIME" ....he may be gone but his legacy and vision will go on... He may have been a visionary but he was very very wrong about Afrezza and what its sales would look like. The drug has been a commercial failure thus far and can't even come close to being the best selling prandial insulin in the U.S, let alone the best selling drug of all time. Please.... The label change (soon!) AND pediatric approval will happen. |
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Post by bradleysbest on Jun 12, 2017 9:44:50 GMT -5
Silent you are right so far.... Hoping Mike can figure it out & make Afrezza a winner.
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Post by lakon on Jun 12, 2017 9:56:07 GMT -5
............ Which begs the question............. if you can't sell it in the US why in hell would you manufacture it in the US? Intellectual Property Protection (Nobody else knows how to do this, and we'd like to keep it that way.) |
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 12, 2017 15:27:53 GMT -5
You know, Mike probably figured to himself, "if I can't sell Afrezza in the US, I'd better look elsewhere, cuz there is no better salesman than I."
I'm not a fan of Mike's attitude in general, however, if that's what it takes to keep this company alive until things turn around, then I'm 100% behind him!
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Post by anderson on Jun 12, 2017 17:44:20 GMT -5
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