Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2017 10:59:09 GMT -5
Let me ask a rhetorical question: Which company has the most to gain if Afrezza succeeds and or partners with Mannkind to ensure its survival?
Amphastar
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Post by cjc04 on Jun 22, 2017 11:02:27 GMT -5
This will be my last post. If I were Deerfield I'd buy another 5% of the company through debt to equity conversion. Then I'd loan the company some amount of money, making it clear more would be forthcoming if necessary. Short squeeze ensues and my 10+% stake would skyrocket in value. I'd let my compliance and legal departments work out how to allocate the gains amongst the various vehicles I manage. Oh yeah, I'd spend the rest of the year in the islands having beaten every Market composite against which my performance is compared. Guess we'll see. I thought I'd be in the islands a couple of years ago Yep.... I remember doing napkin math and being worried that even if they could get Danbury running to capacity with 10 lines, it still wouldn't be enough to keep up with demand and it would look bad for the company.... 😳
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Post by matt on Jun 22, 2017 11:04:08 GMT -5
How about you Google it and provide the link. You already sent me on a wild goose chase when you said to locate where the Mann Foundation bought 5 million more shares of MNKD after selling EYES stock. You still have not provided proof of that. Show me you're more than hot air Im pretty sure this is the first time since I've been invested that Al has been listed in more than one place. I wonder what changed ?? Institutional ownership is not as simple as adding up the number of shares one of these entities owns. Al Mann "owned" shares via options, while his "real" ownership was via the Al Mann Living Trust, and the trust was a controlling person of The Mann Group. As a result, the trust reports that it "owns" 114 million shares, but in fact it only really owns 21 million shares, plus the 3 million options, and is also credited with the 89 million shares owned in The Mann Group. If you add the two together (114 + 89), you will assume that the Mann entities own 203 million shares but that is not the case since the 89 million held by The Mann Group is a double count and the options have since expired. Unwinding all the ins and outs requires some work understanding the SEC attribution rules. You won't get there by a Google search. I think the confusion about the Living Trust acquiring more shares was due to transfer of options to the trust as of the data of death. Even though these were options, the SEC requires every entity that "owns or controls" the security to report it. Since options are not the same as shares, people saw the number change and assumed that there was some buying going on. In fact, it was the ownership of option securities changing from a living person to a trust due to a death, nothing more.
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Post by rockstarrick on Jun 22, 2017 11:26:37 GMT -5
Im pretty sure this is the first time since I've been invested that Al has been listed in more than one place. I wonder what changed ?? Institutional ownership is not as simple as adding up the number of shares one of these entities owns. Al Mann "owned" shares via options, while his "real" ownership was via the Al Mann Living Trust, and the trust was a controlling person of The Mann Group. As a result, the trust reports that it "owns" 114 million shares, but in fact it only really owns 21 million shares, plus the 3 million options, and is also credited with the 89 million shares owned in The Mann Group. If you add the two together (114 + 89), you will assume that the Mann entities own 203 million shares but that is not the case since the 89 million held by The Mann Group is a double count and the options have since expired. Unwinding all the ins and outs requires some work understanding the SEC attribution rules. You won't get there by a Google search. I think the confusion about the Living Trust acquiring more shares was due to transfer of options to the trust as of the data of death. Even though these were options, the SEC requires every entity that "owns or controls" the security to report it. Since options are not the same as shares, people saw the number change and assumed that there was some buying going on. In fact, it was the ownership of option securities changing from a living person to a trust due to a death, nothing more. Thanks for the response Matt, I guess the only point I was trying to make is the fact that Al Mann is now listed twice. I have kept a close eye on this information provided by CNBC since investing in mnkd back in 2012. For example, back when Bank of America returned the 9 million shares, Al Mann shares increased by 9 million, as if he himself loaned the shares to BofA. I just thought it was interesting to see the 22.1 post split shares, (it has always been 22.1 post split), then today seeing the additional listing, (I don't know when it changed, I just noticed it today). Im not trying to support any ideas that they have purchased additional shares, just pointing out the change. I appreciate your knowledge and contribution to this forum, and really appreciate you responding to my comment. Thanks Matt Good Luck Everybody 😎
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Post by rockstarrick on Jun 22, 2017 11:27:19 GMT -5
This will be my last post. If I were Deerfield I'd buy another 5% of the company through debt to equity conversion. Then I'd loan the company some amount of money, making it clear more would be forthcoming if necessary. Short squeeze ensues and my 10+% stake would skyrocket in value. I'd let my compliance and legal departments work out how to allocate the gains amongst the various vehicles I manage. Oh yeah, I'd spend the rest of the year in the islands having beaten every Market composite against which my performance is compared. Guess we'll see. I thought I'd be in the islands a couple of years ago Take me with you 😎
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 22, 2017 11:34:03 GMT -5
I thought I'd be in the islands a couple of years ago Yep.... I remember doing napkin math and being worried that even if they could get Danbury running to capacity with 10 lines, it still wouldn't be enough to keep up with demand and it would look bad for the company.... 😳 LOL! I have to say I had that thought when we only had the one line on, with two coming on. I didn't get quite to worrying about 10 lines, though!
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Post by kball on Jun 22, 2017 11:34:46 GMT -5
This will be my last post. If I were Deerfield I'd buy another 5% of the company through debt to equity conversion. Then I'd loan the company some amount of money, making it clear more would be forthcoming if necessary. Short squeeze ensues and my 10+% stake would skyrocket in value. I'd let my compliance and legal departments work out how to allocate the gains amongst the various vehicles I manage. Oh yeah, I'd spend the rest of the year in the islands having beaten every Market composite against which my performance is compared. Guess we'll see. I thought I'd be in the islands a couple of years ago We are, Facts... Fantasy Island
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Post by rockstarrick on Jun 22, 2017 11:37:49 GMT -5
Here is a previous post split screen shot I had saved
Here is the screenshot with Al Mann listed 2x
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 22, 2017 11:44:49 GMT -5
I believe that the new report simply reflects that these shares, currently controlled by two of Al Mann's holding companies, are no longer considered insider shares and have been re-assigned as institutional holdings.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 22, 2017 11:49:36 GMT -5
Hey, the share price is doing okay. What is it that is causing that? Cash around the corner? Hopefully, we're still on track with some foreign sales (not partnerships, but sales).
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Tinkerbell
Researcher
Watcher of the Skies
Posts: 143
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jun 22, 2017 13:30:45 GMT -5
I received a response from Mike re: two letters I sent to him and the Board. He acknowledged the points I made in both letters and agreed they had merit.
So now we just have to wait and see what happens re: the money situation. No one will disagree that additional monies are needed to sustain the sales momentum through 1st quarter of next year. The MannKind dedicated sales team launched in February of this year - right? They need at least 12 months so the question is how will MannKind obtain the needed cash?
Will they choose to go for new debt or an equity offering? That's something I am not privy to, nor has Mike disclosed anything to me.
But I've said this before and on this board - a rights offering to long term shareholders who've been in the stock at least 2 years would be a quick and a relatively painless raise. I'd rather buy the dilution than sit there and be met with it.
So let's just say that if I were approached privately to purchase additional shares at a 30% discount and at a 2:1 ratio for every share I could prove I've held for a minimun of 2 years, I'd eat up those shares faster than a speeding bullet; I'd hold on to them more powerfully than a locomotive and I'd leap over any tall building to get my hands on those shares as I flew past the hedgies magic cape and all. Oh yes and I would smile broadly knowing that for once, MannKind offered something to me for my years of loyalty. Pipe dream? Perhaps. Worth considering? I sure hope so.
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Post by nadathing on Jun 22, 2017 13:40:50 GMT -5
In this thread and others there is much speculation on how MNKD will survive, but rational suggestions are quickly ignored for more tantalizing suggestions of buy outs, bankruptcy, etc. While Deerfield is mentioned on occasion in other threads discussing MNKD's cash problem, there is not one mention here. Deerfield can demand payment in July or take a debt-for-equity exchange as it did before. I believe there is a good chance that Deerfield will exchange debt for equity and furthermore will provide MNKD with another $40 to $60 million through a convertible note with a conversion price of $2/share or higher. Dilution will be moderate, but certainly not enough to benefit shorts who were waiting for the cash raise to close their positions. Rather, the easing of MNKD's cash problem and the UAE approval that I believe will shortly follow (not to mention Reversed and DTC) will push the PPS well beyond whatever price erosion might have resulted from dilution. Those with open short positions remaining after the financing deal would be inviting disaster to hold on to their positions with the label approval due in September, the time-in-range study results due a month or two later and a possible approval in Brazil by the end of the year. This is why I think there is a 50% chance that shorts will not be able to exit gracefully if they are expecting a financial disaster for MNKD in July. Deerfield did well with their earlier debt-for-equity exchange. I think they will do much much better with another in July and that is why I think it will happen. Matt P. is the one with the history with Deerfield. IMO he likely will have had a hand in the July exchange if it takes place. While Castagna will be the one who makes Afrezza a commercial success, assuming that is what the future holds, Pfeffer, IMO, is the one who kept the lights on at MNKD so Castagna could work his magic. Kinda curious.... I have read many posts from people here and elsewhere saying we are getting label approval soon. What makes you think that it will be approved? The FDA has never shown any favor to MNKD and they may not grant the approval. Or, is it 100% they will?
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 22, 2017 13:41:46 GMT -5
Tink...I'm flat out of money. But I love your posts and wish you good luck if it happens.
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Post by kbrion77 on Jun 22, 2017 14:10:24 GMT -5
I received a response from Mike re: two letters I sent to him and the Board. He acknowledged the points I made in both letters and agreed they had merit. So now we just have to wait and see what happens re: the money situation. No one will disagree that additional monies are needed to sustain the sales momentum through 1st quarter of next year. The MannKind dedicated sales team launched in February of this year - right? They need at least 12 months so the question is how will MannKind obtain the needed cash? Will they choose to go for new debt or an equity offering? That's something I am not privy to, nor has Mike disclosed anything to me. But I've said this before and on this board - a rights offering to long term shareholders who've been in the stock at least 2 years would be a quick and a relatively painless raise. I'd rather buy the dilution than sit there and be met with it. So let's just say that if I were approached privately to purchase additional shares at a 30% discount and at a 2:1 ratio for every share I could prove I've held for a minimun of 2 years, I'd eat up those shares faster than a speeding bullet; I'd hold on to them more powerfully than a locomotive and I'd leap over any tall building to get my hands on those shares as I flew past the hedgies magic cape and all. Oh yes and I would smile broadly knowing that for once, MannKind offered something to me for my years of loyalty. Pipe dream? Perhaps. Worth considering? I sure hope so. Achieving any type of sales traction with reasonable numbers is the best way to repay us, they have failed yet so far.
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Tinkerbell
Researcher
Watcher of the Skies
Posts: 143
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Post by Tinkerbell on Jun 22, 2017 14:22:47 GMT -5
In this thread and others there is much speculation on how MNKD will survive, but rational suggestions are quickly ignored for more tantalizing suggestions of buy outs, bankruptcy, etc. While Deerfield is mentioned on occasion in other threads discussing MNKD's cash problem, there is not one mention here. Deerfield can demand payment in July or take a debt-for-equity exchange as it did before. I believe there is a good chance that Deerfield will exchange debt for equity and furthermore will provide MNKD with another $40 to $60 million through a convertible note with a conversion price of $2/share or higher. Dilution will be moderate, but certainly not enough to benefit shorts who were waiting for the cash raise to close their positions. Rather, the easing of MNKD's cash problem and the UAE approval that I believe will shortly follow (not to mention Reversed and DTC) will push the PPS well beyond whatever price erosion might have resulted from dilution. Those with open short positions remaining after the financing deal would be inviting disaster to hold on to their positions with the label approval due in September, the time-in-range study results due a month or two later and a possible approval in Brazil by the end of the year. This is why I think there is a 50% chance that shorts will not be able to exit gracefully if they are expecting a financial disaster for MNKD in July. Deerfield did well with their earlier debt-for-equity exchange. I think they will do much much better with another in July and that is why I think it will happen. Matt P. is the one with the history with Deerfield. IMO he likely will have had a hand in the July exchange if it takes place. While Castagna will be the one who makes Afrezza a commercial success, assuming that is what the future holds, Pfeffer, IMO, is the one who kept the lights on at MNKD so Castagna could work his magic. Kinda curious.... I have read many posts from people here and elsewhere saying we are getting label approval soon. What makes you think that it will be approved? The FDA has never shown any favor to MNKD and they may not grant the approval. Or, is it 100% they will?Actually, the FDA will have to save face this time around and I would think they'd give MannKind's Afrezza a deserving label. In my view, ultra fast is NOT enough when it comes to Afrezza and so I've forwarded three emails to Mike (originally sent to Matt and then Ray) describing what additional terminology would be extremely useful in the label. I sure hope they consider what I had to say and though it isn't my place to tell them what to do, as an investor, I have a voice and if it's reasonable one, considering it would not be a crime.
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