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Post by slugworth008 on Jun 25, 2017 12:01:44 GMT -5
Finally we cracj the 300 barrier. Now once we pass 500 and maintain it - I'll consider that the inflection point....and a big middle finger to SNY's sales force.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jun 25, 2017 14:48:38 GMT -5
Finally we cracj the 300 barrier. Now once we pass 500 and maintain it - I'll consider that the inflection point....and a big middle finger to SNY's sales force. I like it slug:-) But weren't they in the 6 hundreds? I'm gonna have to wait till we get to 700 to do my happy dance:-)))
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jun 25, 2017 16:33:14 GMT -5
Finally we cracj the 300 barrier. Now once we pass 500 and maintain it - I'll consider that the inflection point....and a big middle finger to SNY's sales force. I like it slug:-) But weren't they in the 6 hundreds? I'm gonna have to wait till we get to 700 to do my happy dance:-))) Since units per prescription don't match up equally now vs when Sanofi was selling Afrezza, I'm more interested in revenue and total units sold per week as the best metric. If we cross $400,000 per week, I believe that will surpass the best week ever for Sanofi. Then I agree with slug's appropriate hand gesture to Sanofi.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jun 25, 2017 17:41:33 GMT -5
If the revenue keeps rising, the runway extends. Would really love to see a nice move up again this coming Friday. I too agree with the hand gesture...and it's pointed at Shkreli as well.
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Post by peppy on Jun 25, 2017 17:56:53 GMT -5
I like it slug:-) But weren't they in the 6 hundreds? I'm gonna have to wait till we get to 700 to do my happy dance:-))) Since units per prescription don't match up equally now vs when Sanofi was selling Afrezza, I'm more interested in revenue and total units sold per week as the best metric. If we cross $400,000 per week, I believe that will surpass the best week ever for Sanofi. Then I agree with slug's appropriate hand gesture to Sanofi. how far away is mnkd from $400,000 a week?
mnkd.proboards.com/attachment/download/1873
add to those numbers, Week ending 6/16/17
TRx 385 (302 last week) TRx $280.55K TRx units in prescriptions 68.22K
NRx 226 (145 last week) NRx $159.08K NRx units total presciptions 39.15K
600 TRX a week would get revenue to $400,000 a week?
This inflection point would be more meaningful if word of a label change was leaking? oh, in my dreams. if UAE is true... an extra dream sequence.
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 25, 2017 18:21:38 GMT -5
I think we just past a potential inflection point, but we need to see continued script growth otherwise it's just a blip.
The next goal is: > $1,000,000 /week of revenue & > 1000 scripts /week & Getting those numbers in July
Go BIG or go home! (10,000 scripts /week by the end of the year)
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Post by mnkdfann on Jun 25, 2017 18:28:17 GMT -5
I like it slug:-) But weren't they in the 6 hundreds? I'm gonna have to wait till we get to 700 to do my happy dance:-))) Since units per prescription don't match up equally now vs when Sanofi was selling Afrezza, I'm more interested in revenue and total units sold per week as the best metric. If we cross $400,000 per week, I believe that will surpass the best week ever for Sanofi. Then I agree with slug's appropriate hand gesture to Sanofi. Keep in mind inflation. In another thread, alethea notes that his own Afrezza prescription cost (out of pocket, no insurance) has increased (if you run the numbers) about 28% over 2 years. [Hope alethea corrects me if I misread something there.] See his post in the first page of this thread: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/8113/spencers-latest-negative-spinSo we'd need something like $475,000 to 'beat' Sanofi's best week of $371,000 back in 2015. Honestly just splitting hairs though, as we all know we really need 7 figures not 6.
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Post by nylefty on Jun 25, 2017 20:26:28 GMT -5
Since units per prescription don't match up equally now vs when Sanofi was selling Afrezza, I'm more interested in revenue and total units sold per week as the best metric. If we cross $400,000 per week, I believe that will surpass the best week ever for Sanofi. Then I agree with slug's appropriate hand gesture to Sanofi. Keep in mind inflation. In another thread, alethea notes that his own Afrezza prescription cost (out of pocket, no insurance) has increased (if you run the numbers) about 28% over 2 years. [Hope alethea corrects me if I misread something there.] See his post in the first page of this thread: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/8113/spencers-latest-negative-spinAs far as I know, MannKind hasn't increased the price of Afrezza. Sounds like the pharmacy that alethea uses is responsible for the price increase -- or perhaps the distributor that supplies the pharmacy. Prices for prescription drugs can vary, sometimes considerably, from one pharmacy to another. GoodRx says that a box of 30 4's and 60 8's costs $343.44 at my local Price Chopper ($327.44 if the prescription is to be taken over 31 or more days), while the same box costs $367.73 at Walgreens.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jun 25, 2017 20:39:30 GMT -5
Keep in mind inflation. In another thread, alethea notes that his own Afrezza prescription cost (out of pocket, no insurance) has increased (if you run the numbers) about 28% over 2 years. [Hope alethea corrects me if I misread something there.] See his post in the first page of this thread: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/8113/spencers-latest-negative-spinAs far as I know, MannKind hasn't increased the price of Afrezza. Sounds like the pharmacy that alethea uses is responsible for the price increase -- or perhaps the distributor that supplies the pharmacy. Prices for prescription drugs can vary, sometimes considerably, from one pharmacy to another. Yes, fair point.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jun 25, 2017 22:22:02 GMT -5
Finally we cracj the 300 barrier. Now once we pass 500 and maintain it - I'll consider that the inflection point....and a big middle finger to SNY's sales force. I like it slug:-) But weren't they in the 6 hundreds? I'm gonna have to wait till we get to 700 to do my happy dance:-))) I don't remember exactly Sports - I though it was in the 500's but when you compare the sizes of the salesforces - I'll take 500+ --then they tell two friends...who tell two friends and shazam (add new users social media blurbs into that as well . But to your thought - at 700 I'd get my happy dance on too...I also think that when we hit 1,000 someone will get out the checkbook. IMO
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Post by deaner3 on Jun 25, 2017 22:40:27 GMT -5
The best stretch of trx started oct 2015 over 5 weeks
627 583 560 603 581
But that revenue wasn't much different than now
Those same 5 weeks 371,000 304,000 297,000 322,000 280,000
And we cleared 280000 this past week. So we are approaching sanofi best very quickly.
Things in my opinion are more bullish than ever for future. Just wish I could free up more cash at this point.
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Post by slugworth008 on Jun 26, 2017 0:15:19 GMT -5
The best stretch of trx started oct 2015 over 5 weeks 627 583 560 603 581 But that revenue wasn't much different than now Those same 5 weeks 371,000 304,000 297,000 322,000 280,000 And we cleared 280000 this past week. So we are approaching sanofi best very quickly. Things in my opinion are more bullish than ever for future. Just wish I could free up more cash at this point. Nice work deaner3, very nice indeed.
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Post by falconquest on Jun 26, 2017 6:02:31 GMT -5
The best stretch of trx started oct 2015 over 5 weeks 627 583 560 603 581 But that revenue wasn't much different than now Those same 5 weeks 371,000 304,000 297,000 322,000 280,000 And we cleared 280000 this past week. So we are approaching sanofi best very quickly. Things in my opinion are more bullish than ever for future. Just wish I could free up more cash at this point. I maintain that while fundamentals are more bullish, they are more than offset by the black swan known as operating capital (cash). You can have all the opportunity in the world but if you don't have the cash to take advantage of that opportunity then it becomes moot. We need to see how the cash issue will be resolved.
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Post by casualinvestor on Jun 26, 2017 9:10:52 GMT -5
Good to know they've been breaking the law? And sadly you hope I'm right? Care to throw any more fud on the fire.. Strategically it would be better IMO to announce your over all plan to give the company more runway after scripts have turned up. Because with out the script increase we wouldn't hold the gains in the pps. Although if it was a partnership maybe we would. IDK What I'm sure about: That the problem has been awareness, insurance, and under dosing. That the reps are doing a great job! That Mike has a plan and intends to announce that when he's ready:-). And that I'm not worried about it. Absolutely Rancho... I communicate everything with my wife so we are on same page and she brings a unbiased view to things. And she basically went through facts with me. Said.. you don't know for sure but this is about as high probability of success you can get at these levels. Don't stress and let it ride. Even if it gets to dilution there are so many people who believe just waiting for the announcement to buy. The bounce back from news would be very short term and the quickly roar past current pps onward to where we want it. So only thing to fear is bankruptcy not dilution and that isn't even a consideration for years and with a eventual blockbuster product and sales starting to pick up speed. It's going to succeed. So my advice to myself is quit worrying and buy more. Great post. The bolded part is the exact thing I keep worrying about. Are MNKD execs going to gamble and try to hold out for the highest possible PPS before announcing dilution? That's a risk they don't need to take. The meal-time correction "niche" for Afrezza is millions of people. I think the stock price will skyrocket to many times it's current value *if* they can do any of these things: 1) Sales hit even 1% of the mealtime correction market (may require superiority label) 2) They can get traction with the needle-phobia populations 3) Access the pediatric market (requires pediatric trial) 4) Steadily grow sales for a year through sales force work (boring...) If they authorize another 30 million shares, then yes it's 25-30% dilution. And each one of our shares are worth less. But (1.52*.75)*xxxx% is good enough for me. I'd rather that they stay safe on the cash front so they have time to get market share
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Post by silentknight on Jun 26, 2017 9:30:33 GMT -5
Something to keep in mind:
For MNKD to dilute to the extent that they cover a year's worth of operating funds, approximately $75 million, MNKD would need to sell approximately 50 million shares at the current share price, give or take a few cents.
With approximately 100 million shares outstanding (post-split), you're looking at a 50% dilution to get what many believe would be the result of a secondary offering. That's a huge haircut, not to mention a golden opportunity for shorts to cover AND the need to get shareholder approval to increase the authorized share count.
I'd rather see them do a rights offering to shareholders before going straight to dilution. If they can show continued improvement, I'd wager that many longs would buy more and give them at least a long(er) runway without eroding value.
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