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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 12, 2017 15:42:55 GMT -5
Given the incorrect facts that went into this calculation (most glaring was pretending our monthly expense is quarterly) and the reality that MNKD management has already stated that additional cash (I believe $20 to $30 million) would be needed just to clear 2017, would it be appropriate to rename this thread so that someone is not mislead by it if they don't find the details of the falsity of this statement, which unfortunately are buried a bit further down in the thread after a round of cheering of this misinformation?
Perhaps it should be renamed "New cash must be raised in 2017, based on facts and statement of management."
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Post by peppy on Jul 12, 2017 15:56:40 GMT -5
Every time I play with compounding, it amazes me. For your entertainment, I present you with the results of my playing MNKD numbers.
Assumptions:
Growth rate: 5% weekly. Retention rate on new prescription: 50% of new prescriptions after 4 weeks. Retention rate on existing refills: 50% of new prescriptions after 4 weeks.
So, my new prescription is 5% higher than the previous week. My refill is the sum of 50% of total prescriptions 4 weeks ago.
Facts:
new prescriptions: 184.75 (4 week average up to 6/30) refill prescriptions: 152.75 (4 week average up to 6/30) price: 773.33 (4 week average up to 6/30) -- Surprise#1 We are NOT cheap at all.
Rough facts:
Cash on hand at 6/30: 30M (?) Cash burn: $7M a quarter amounts to $7M/13 weeks. Add back $261,000 weekly revenue now, expenses is $799,462 per week.
With these numbers, I was trying to find out when we will run out of cash.
To my surprise, I could not. My spreadsheet tells me that Surprise#2 WE WILL NEVER RUN OUT CASH! In fact, our cash balance will reach its lowest point on week of 12/22/2017 at $21,753,908.50. Our maximum cash draw down was only $8.2M. We start to clime after that, just ready for Xmas.
Surprise#3: Our cashflow positive point can be achieved by selling only 1034 prescription.
My questions for these interested: Do you think this is a realistic scenario? If not, which number will you challenge? Suggestions, critical ones included, are welcome.
Merry Xmas! Have a feast, but don't forget your Afrezza.
@sportsrancho since you asked, here are my thoughts. My understanding is that the sales amount reported by Symphony and IMS is not the real revenue that Mannkind receives. At least, the sales amount they report does not take out rebates that Mannkind has to be pay the payors. See this Forbes article for more detail. So I would prefer use the net revenue reported by Mannkind. I do not know what constitutes "net revenue" for Mannkind's case. But seems like this explanation makes senses to me. Assuming this is true, this means the net revenue reported by Mannkind already takes into account all the discounts it offered to users. Per Mannkind's 1st quarter conference call transcripts, "our total net revenue for the first quarter of 2017 was $3 million which included $1.8 million from the sale of surplus bulk insulin to a third-party and $1.2 million of recognized Afrezza product dispensed to patients, after giving effect to gross to net adjustments of $0.4 million." So my understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the first quarter was $1.2 million, after taking out $0.4 million rebates to the payors. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,203. A total net revenue divided by 3,203 results in $375. So we can assume Mannkind gets $375 out of each script. Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even.
However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. quote: Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even.
reply: so approximately 10 times present the weekly. Thank you compound.
"You know, if one person, just one person does it they may think he's really sick and they won't take him. And if two people, two people do it, in harmony, they may think they're both faggots and they won't take either of them. And three people do it, three, can you imagine, three people walking in singin' a bar of Alice's Restaurant and walking out. They may think it's an organization. And can you, can you imagine fifty people a day, I said fifty people a day walking in singin' a bar of Alice's Restaurant and walking out. And friends they may thinks it's a movement."
The next earnings announcement conference call looks to be @ august 10th. Advertising and label.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 12, 2017 18:02:44 GMT -5
jay, check out Compound's math skills, put me down for a big "ditto," but not on his overall feeling. We need some great foreign sales, and we need them soon and we need them to generate significant cash. Thinking our script numbers are going to do as he/she thinks, well, let's just say we disagree.
The math skills that are relevant to me at the moment are: money put into MNKD shares/options, less current value of same; and, to kick myself a bit more - value of mnkd shares/options at $11/share, less current value of same.
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Post by rtpaeschke on Jul 14, 2017 7:59:41 GMT -5
I like the way you solved the problem Compound26. Nice job.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 8, 2017 15:23:39 GMT -5
Every time I play with compounding, it amazes me. For your entertainment, I present you with the results of my playing MNKD numbers.
Assumptions:
Growth rate: 5% weekly. Retention rate on new prescription: 50% of new prescriptions after 4 weeks. Retention rate on existing refills: 50% of new prescriptions after 4 weeks.
So, my new prescription is 5% higher than the previous week. My refill is the sum of 50% of total prescriptions 4 weeks ago.
Facts:
new prescriptions: 184.75 (4 week average up to 6/30) refill prescriptions: 152.75 (4 week average up to 6/30) price: 773.33 (4 week average up to 6/30) -- Surprise#1 We are NOT cheap at all.
Rough facts:
Cash on hand at 6/30: 30M (?) Cash burn: $7M a quarter amounts to $7M/13 weeks. Add back $261,000 weekly revenue now, expenses is $799,462 per week.
With these numbers, I was trying to find out when we will run out of cash.
To my surprise, I could not. My spreadsheet tells me that Surprise#2 WE WILL NEVER RUN OUT CASH! In fact, our cash balance will reach its lowest point on week of 12/22/2017 at $21,753,908.50. Our maximum cash draw down was only $8.2M. We start to clime after that, just ready for Xmas.
Surprise#3: Our cashflow positive point can be achieved by selling only 1034 prescription.
My questions for these interested: Do you think this is a realistic scenario? If not, which number will you challenge? Suggestions, critical ones included, are welcome.
Merry Xmas! Have a feast, but don't forget your Afrezza.
@sportsrancho since you asked, here are my thoughts. My understanding is that the sales amount reported by Symphony and IMS is not the real revenue that Mannkind receives. At least, the sales amount they report does not take out rebates that Mannkind has to be pay the payors. See this Forbes article for more detail. So I would prefer use the net revenue reported by Mannkind. I do not know what constitutes "net revenue" for Mannkind's case. But seems like this explanation makes senses to me. Assuming this is true, this means the net revenue reported by Mannkind already takes into account all the discounts it offered to users. Per Mannkind's 1st quarter conference call transcripts, "our total net revenue for the first quarter of 2017 was $3 million which included $1.8 million from the sale of surplus bulk insulin to a third-party and $1.2 million of recognized Afrezza product dispensed to patients, after giving effect to gross to net adjustments of $0.4 million." So my understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the first quarter was $1.2 million, after taking out $0.4 million rebates to the payors. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,203. A total net revenue divided by 3,203 results in $375. So we can assume Mannkind gets $375 out of each script. Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even.However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above.
An update of the above calculation based on the second quarter numbers: My understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the second quarter was $1.8 million. [They reported 1.5 million, but said there was a 0.3 million one-time fee to wholesale distributor that would not occur in the future. So we can deem the actual revenue for the 2nd quarter as 1.8 million, rather than 1.5 million]. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,836. A total net revenue divided by 3,836 results in $469. As the management explained, they are getting more revenue per script for various factors. So we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets at $469 out of each script. Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 3,444 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. |
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Post by saxcmann on Aug 8, 2017 15:31:51 GMT -5
Good info Compound! Thanks!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 8, 2017 17:42:19 GMT -5
@sportsrancho since you asked, here are my thoughts. My understanding is that the sales amount reported by Symphony and IMS is not the real revenue that Mannkind receives. At least, the sales amount they report does not take out rebates that Mannkind has to be pay the payors. See this Forbes article for more detail. So I would prefer use the net revenue reported by Mannkind. I do not know what constitutes "net revenue" for Mannkind's case. But seems like this explanation makes senses to me. Assuming this is true, this means the net revenue reported by Mannkind already takes into account all the discounts it offered to users. Per Mannkind's 1st quarter conference call transcripts, "our total net revenue for the first quarter of 2017 was $3 million which included $1.8 million from the sale of surplus bulk insulin to a third-party and $1.2 million of recognized Afrezza product dispensed to patients, after giving effect to gross to net adjustments of $0.4 million." So my understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the first quarter was $1.2 million, after taking out $0.4 million rebates to the payors. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,203. A total net revenue divided by 3,203 results in $375. So we can assume Mannkind gets $375 out of each script. Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even.However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above.
An update of the above calculation based on the second quarter numbers: My understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the second quarter was $1.8 million. [They reported 1.5 million, but said there was a 0.3 million one-time fee to wholesale distributor that would not occur in the future. So we can deem the actual revenue for the 2nd quarter as 1.8 million, rather than 1.5 million]. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,836. A total net revenue divided by 3,836 results in $469. As the management explained, they are getting more revenue per script for various factors. So we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets at $469 out of each script. Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 3,444 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. Hopefully we are at or very near break even by the time overseas sales kick in, because those are still a long ways in the future. |
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Post by straightly on Aug 11, 2017 1:16:03 GMT -5
Some updates:
1. Our growth rate, based on management's guideline, will be about 50% per quarter. That amounts to about 3.17% per week. Much lower than my original "conservative" assumption of 5% growth rate per week. This goes to show how speculative, easy, and deceptive number playing can be. So whatever I say here has only one assurance and that is <b>It will be wrong</b>
2. Our current cash at end of 6/30 is $43.4M.
3. as offered by (pro-)board members, our revenue per script is either $469 or $375.
4. We do not know what our refill rate, or retention rate, or return customer rate is. In fact, I do not even know how to define/calculate meaningful measures of that GIVEN our known numbers. So I do not fault Mike's comments that we are NOT paying particular attentions to that right now. So far, my 50% of new and 50% of refill from 4 weeks ago seemed to track the real numbers quite well, so I will continue to use them till better rates are found.
JUST (or not) with these assumptions, my spreadsheet pulled out these numbers. I am surprised. Will you?
1. Tomorrow, we will NOT crack 400. Not yet. It should be 395 Trx with 216 NewRx, and 180 Refill (with rounding error before you accuse me of mis-calculation).
2. We will run out cash 2018/1/12, consistent with management's prediction.
3. Nadir (has to use this word that I get this chance) of our cash position will be 2019/01/04 when we will reach negative of (51,448,957.31). If nadir is not familiar to you, this means that we will be cashflow positive after that. It also means that if we are not dead by then, we will not.
4. Surprise, surprise! IF we can sell and lease back the factory for more that %51.5M, <b>"We will never run out of cash!"</b> WOW! I manage to resurrect this thread!
4. That was assuming our revenue is $375 per script. If I use a revenue of $469 per script, we will only need (40,086,834.86).
5. With these assumptions, our refill will always trail newrx. But if we can SIMPLY (it is of course easy said) increase our conversion rate (newRx becomes refill) to 55% and continual rate (refill continues) to 65%, Our refill will then be higher than newRx and grow much faster. It will grow fast enough to lower our cash requirement to ONLY $29.5M.
6. I believe this is significant in two ways: 1, pay attention to retention pays, big time. 2. Mike's assertion in the conference call of wanting to have newRx higher than refill made sense because up till now our newRx rate is very low. However, once we got our doctors really prescribing AND patient really using Afrezza, I actually expect the 55% and 65% rates to be MORE realistic. So requiring our sales folks to surpass their Refill count might not be easy. We should encourage both newRx and refills, maybe even more on refills.
<b>Summary--If we can do 3.17% weekly growth till end of 2018, we will be cash flow positive and We will never run out of cash! (after that).</b>
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Post by compound26 on Sept 22, 2017 10:11:16 GMT -5
@sportsrancho since you asked, here are my thoughts. My understanding is that the sales amount reported by Symphony and IMS is not the real revenue that Mannkind receives. At least, the sales amount they report does not take out rebates that Mannkind has to be pay the payors. See this Forbes article for more detail. So I would prefer use the net revenue reported by Mannkind. I do not know what constitutes "net revenue" for Mannkind's case. But seems like this explanation makes senses to me. Assuming this is true, this means the net revenue reported by Mannkind already takes into account all the discounts it offered to users. Per Mannkind's 1st quarter conference call transcripts, "our total net revenue for the first quarter of 2017 was $3 million which included $1.8 million from the sale of surplus bulk insulin to a third-party and $1.2 million of recognized Afrezza product dispensed to patients, after giving effect to gross to net adjustments of $0.4 million." So my understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the first quarter was $1.2 million, after taking out $0.4 million rebates to the payors. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,203. A total net revenue divided by 3,203 results in $375. So we can assume Mannkind gets $375 out of each script. Based on a cash burn of $7.5 million/month and $90 million/year, it appears we will need 4,615 TRx per week to break even.However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above.
An update of the above calculation based on the second quarter numbers: My understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the second quarter was $1.8 million. [They reported 1.5 million, but said there was a 0.3 million one-time fee to wholesale distributor that would not occur in the future. So we can deem the actual revenue for the 2nd quarter as 1.8 million, rather than 1.5 million]. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,836. A total net revenue divided by 3,836 results in $469. As the management explained, they are getting more revenue per script for various factors. So we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets at $469 out of each script. Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 3,444 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. Playing with the numbers a little bit. Let's do an updated calculation using the latest symphony numbers for the week of 9/15.TRX 428 (+30.5% WoW) NRX 244 (+37%) Refills 184 (+22.7%) TRX$ 372k$ (+39.3%) The above numbers means that the per script gross revenue for the week of 9/19 is $372,000/428 = $869. If I recall corrected, on the second quarter conference call, the management mentioned that the gross to net discount is about 65%. So the net revenue if the week of 9/15 is somewhere around $869 x 65% = $565. So, based on the latest numbers for the week of 9/15, we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets somewhere around $565 out of each script.Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 2,859 TRx per week to break even ($84,000,000 / 52 / 565 = 2,859). |
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Post by compound26 on Oct 10, 2017 14:26:21 GMT -5
Playing with the numbers a little bit.
An update of the above calculation based on the second quarter numbers: My understanding is that Mannkind's net revenue for selling Afrezza in the second quarter was $1.8 million. [They reported 1.5 million, but said there was a 0.3 million one-time fee to wholesale distributor that would not occur in the future. So we can deem the actual revenue for the 2nd quarter as 1.8 million, rather than 1.5 million]. Based on the Symphony reported scripts numbers maintained on this site, we note that the TRx for the 1st quarter is 3,836. A total net revenue divided by 3,836 results in $469. As the management explained, they are getting more revenue per script for various factors. So we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets at $469 out of each script. Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 3,444 TRx per week to break even. However, even though we are currently pretty off from break even right now, I am pretty optimistic about Mannkind's future. Since Mannkind is only using 1/5 of the sales force of Sanofi and with Mannkind having a far less swagger than Sanofi (in terms of its influence on the behavior of doctors), a TRx above the Sanofi high watermark (627/week, with a weekly revenue of $370,000) will represent a meaningful success and milestone. I think we are not that far from reaching that point. As we approach 1,000 and 2,000 scripts a week, the revenues we get from the sales will meaningfully extend our runway and reduce the burden for future financing to extend the runway. Also at that point of time, PPS will be meaningfully higher, which makes future financing much easier. Additionally, any sales of Afrezza overseas, though may be at a lower price level, will also meaningfully reduce the required break even U.S. domestic weekly TRx stated above. Playing with the numbers a little bit. Let's do an updated calculation using the latest symphony numbers for the week of 9/15.TRX 428 (+30.5% WoW) NRX 244 (+37%) Refills 184 (+22.7%) TRX$ 372k$ (+39.3%) The above numbers means that the per script gross revenue for the week of 9/19 is $372,000/428 = $869. If I recall corrected, on the second quarter conference call, the management mentioned that the gross to net discount is about 65%. So the net revenue if the week of 9/15 is somewhere around $869 x 65% = $565. So, based on the latest numbers for the week of 9/15, we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets somewhere around $565 out of each script.Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 2,859 TRx per week to break even ($84,000,000 / 52 / 565 = 2,859).The last three weeks' per script sales numbers are $869, $866 and $860. Seems to be very consistent. If we are holding at this level going forward, then the break-even weekly script number of around 2,800/2,900 should also hold. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 10, 2017 14:38:42 GMT -5
From Nate:
I cannot help but think that based on the massive volume we have seen in the past few days that word might be leaking out about a possible partnership, or similarly big announcement, as it is quite likely that the terms of any discussions that had been underway would almost certainly have been contingent on the new FDA label.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 10, 2017 14:51:34 GMT -5
From Nate: I cannot help but think that based on the massive volume we have seen in the past few days that word might be leaking out about a possible partnership, or similarly big announcement, as it is quite likely that the terms of any discussions that had been underway would almost certainly have been contingent on the new FDA label. Nate get that from reading our board?  |
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Post by traderdennis on Oct 10, 2017 14:56:52 GMT -5
Playing with the numbers a little bit. Let's do an updated calculation using the latest symphony numbers for the week of 9/15.TRX 428 (+30.5% WoW) NRX 244 (+37%) Refills 184 (+22.7%) TRX$ 372k$ (+39.3%) The above numbers means that the per script gross revenue for the week of 9/19 is $372,000/428 = $869. If I recall corrected, on the second quarter conference call, the management mentioned that the gross to net discount is about 65%. So the net revenue if the week of 9/15 is somewhere around $869 x 65% = $565. So, based on the latest numbers for the week of 9/15, we can assume that going forward Mannkind gets somewhere around $565 out of each script.Assume a cash burn of $7 million/month (the management noted that cash burn for the second quarter was further reduced to $6.9 million per month if I recall correctly) and $84 million/year, it appears we will need 2,859 TRx per week to break even ($84,000,000 / 52 / 565 = 2,859).The last three weeks' per script sales numbers are $869, $866 and $860. Seems to be very consistent. If we are holding at this level going forward, then the break-even weekly script number of around 2,800/2,900 should also hold. Coumpound, at a 30% qtr over qtr increase in scripts, you get to your cash flow break even in 3rd quarter 2019. Even with the rise, is there enough cash to get there? |
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