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Post by seanismorris on May 30, 2014 2:40:19 GMT -5
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Post by seanismorris on May 30, 2014 2:46:54 GMT -5
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Post by kc on May 30, 2014 9:45:19 GMT -5
I am a 55 year old guy who has been in the market since age 15. Not a daytrader but a buy and hold guy. Explain to me the short squeeze that I keep hearing about on MNKD. I was on the Yahoo board where some folks stated they received letters from their broker asking them to lend them their shares to help cover postions of Shorts. This sounds very foolish to me. As I stated I am a buy and hold forever type person.
I hope MNKD gets its FDA approval and that not only do we help the Diabetes patient with beng able to go needle-less but that we all make some money along the way.
Alfred Mann is a very smart person and in my book a MENSCH.
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Post by BD on May 30, 2014 10:12:46 GMT -5
kc, having just turned double-nickel myself a few months ago, I feel an affinity So how much do you understand about shorting in general? If you've been in the markets this long, I'm surprised you're asking to have "short squeeze" explained... I'm glad to help, but first tell me what you already know...
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Post by kc on May 30, 2014 14:01:03 GMT -5
BD, I have not played options. Just buy and hold and hold... Sometimes too long. Like GE. Should have sold in 2001 when it hit its peak of 68.00 a share. But heck. I have had that stock since age 2 (1961).... But on a serious note. I really don't understand options. I guess that I should study up.
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Post by BD on May 30, 2014 15:19:48 GMT -5
Options are complicated. I have liane's copy of the "bible" of options trading, and haven't had the intestinal fortitude to delve into it yet. I really should give her copy back and buy my own, that will make me invested and I'm more likely to read it.
In any case, never reading the book sure didn't stop me from going for it, and I've lost 100's of K on some really ill-advised options plays (and I use the term "plays" loosely, as in kindergarten-quality play as opposed to actually knowing what I was doing.)
A few years later, I've hit my stride a bit more, but still only buying calls for leveraged long positions, nothing fancy and rarely if ever do I touch puts. I've also never sold calls or puts except to close.
I like buying leaps because they sort of smooth out the volatility, and there are usually opportunities during their lifetime to bail with a relatively small loss (or gain) if I don't feel the stock is heading to where I thought it would. And sometimes I get really lucky, and that good luck balances out a lot of the ignorance.
And if I totally screw up, the worthless calls are at least good for loss harvesting, lol.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jun 2, 2014 11:34:59 GMT -5
He's sell his calls at $10 ? Though this was a recommendation it sounds to me like the guy treats it like a commodity. Why would anyone sell at $10. when multiple huge catalysts are coming along (rhetorical). Will the stock spike as it did with ADA approval when FDA approves and then MNKD partners? What happens to it when the "unknown" become known and a R&D company not only has a product to sell to a huge population but more importantly have approval of dreamboat the technospere delivery system. Good bye head aches and potentially 100's of other disease applications. Though this was a plug for MNKD it also seemed a pump because the speaker was inarticulate about specifics. When he says $10 he puts a number on it regardless of what else is going on. Thanks for posting.. I liked seeing the chart and him mentioning multi year highs.
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 2, 2014 15:15:35 GMT -5
He's a technical trader, he knows very little about Mannkind or events driving the stock. All he cares about is making the easy money in MNKD, I'm ok with that.
I have both long term and trading money in MNKD. The core long term position I'm not selling, but MNKD is very volitile so there is money to be made in trading it. If I can buy low and sell high, obviously that's a win. Also, being very overweight MNKD (as a percentage of my portfolio) I need to lighten up a bit. At $10 it might be a good time to do so. After approval but prior to the partner announcement might also be a good time to both sell and buy more cheaper.
For example: 80% of my MNKD shares I bought between 3$ and 4$ (I'll be keeping those) I bought more at 5$, 6$ and 7$ as trades (the 5$ ones I'll sell at 10$, and start a position in Dexcom) The 6$ I'll sell after the approval bounce, and try to buy them back cheaper before the partnership announcement The 7$ I'll sell after the partnership announcement bounce
Prior to seeing the video, I might have sold the 5$ trade at ~$8.50 because the chart looked over extended and Dexcom looks oversold. But, because this guy (in the video) is a better technical trader, I'm waiting to sell some at 10$.
With regards to the video being a plug for MNKD, I think it is. Institutional investors are buying MNKD after it passed 5$, and now it's come to the attention of Technical traders. More eyes on MNKD is a good thing, some will be bullish and some bearish, but as long as they add to the information on Mannkind and it's potential, or obstacles facing the company, that's good information.
For example, I try spending as much time looking at competition to Afrezza (and products in competitors pipelines) as bullish potential for Technosphere, etc. What I see is Afrezza being the 'best in breed' mealtime treatment for Diabetes for many years to come. I've looked at diabetes, pumps, sensors, other inhaler tech, etc. on one of those tangents I found Dexcom (though I'm a bit late to the party, so I'm looking at a good entry point).
If someone just says "buy" Mannkind, (to me) that's useless information. With regards, to investing there is no such thing as TMI.
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Post by thekindaguyiyam on Jun 2, 2014 17:47:35 GMT -5
@ 10.00 seanismorris I'll be happy to buy all the shares you sell. My style of finance is to accumulate as many shares as I can hold on to prior to the catalyst events occurring. After approval of adcom Mannkind went up 110%. The volume has increased. The reward will appear overnight and happen very quickly... so quickly that a 10.00 mnkd turns into a 20.00 mnkd just as you are selling your shares. GLTY
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Post by seanismorris on Jun 3, 2014 16:53:45 GMT -5
I haven't sold any yet. And, I don't disparage anyone from buying them : ) when I do.
I wll point out there are other great companies to there. Dexcom doesn't have the upside of Mannkind, but what it does have is growing sales and FDA approval (check out the after hours news tonight). Risk wise it's attractive and also form a diversification standpoint.
Your strategy is accumulate shares into catalyst events. My strategy is to invest in 'best of breed' companies that also have catalyst events.
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Post by papihoyos on Jun 3, 2014 22:22:01 GMT -5
BD, I have not played options. Just buy and hold and hold... Sometimes too long. Like GE. Should have sold in 2001 when it hit its peak of 68.00 a share. But heck. I have had that stock since age 2 (1961).... But on a serious note. I really don't understand options. I guess that I should study up. BD download a free eBook from Amazon called "Options Trading in a Nutshell" by john Ondercin. Explains option in plain English and has a test at the end of each chapter.
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Post by coco on Jun 4, 2014 1:00:20 GMT -5
I have always wondered how to play options. Never could quite understand how it all works Thanks for the tip on this free downlode eBook. I will give it a try. Coco
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Post by ashiwi on Jun 4, 2014 4:39:24 GMT -5
KC, shorting is when you borrow shares from your broker ( you have to pay interest ), then you immediately sell those shares . You are doing this with the intention of the stock going down. Once the stock goes down you can buy the stock back cheaper and return the shares you borrowed. A short squeeze happens when the stock that you borrowed and sold goes up instead. Since you ultimately have to return the shares you borrowed, you have to "cover" your short by buying the stock at a higher price . It's common to "short" biotech stocks as more often than not clinical trials don't pan out or companies receive CRL ( pdufa rejections) . They are classically the riskiest investments. With 68 million MNKD shares shorted and the stock going up there is talk of a short squeeze as those shares will need to be covered . If Afrezza gets approved and the shorts have to cover in mass, that's a short squeeze . Many times shorts hedge their bets by buying calls to cover their short position . I suspect some of the recent price appreciation we are seeing now is some short covering. Personally, I never short stocks, I do sell puts, and buy and sell calls, but that's another story.
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Post by BD on Jun 4, 2014 6:48:25 GMT -5
BD, I have not played options. Just buy and hold and hold... Sometimes too long. Like GE. Should have sold in 2001 when it hit its peak of 68.00 a share. But heck. I have had that stock since age 2 (1961).... But on a serious note. I really don't understand options. I guess that I should study up. BD download a free eBook from Amazon called "Options Trading in a Nutshell" by john Ondercin. Explains option in plain English and has a test at the end of each chapter. Will do, thanks!
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Post by papihoyos on Jun 4, 2014 10:16:21 GMT -5
Appreciate the link to the chart. I understand the chart as follows: The Long volume are transactions at the ask price and therefore either a) new long buyer or b) covering a short position. The Short volume are transactions at the bid price and therefore a) long buyer closing position or b) new short position. Since the chart shows a decreasing % of short volume over the period either a) shorts are covering or b) new long positions (new buyers). Did I understand it correctly?
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