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Post by peppy on Oct 21, 2017 21:46:32 GMT -5
for the heck of it, let's look and see if we can make anything out of this. all help appreciated.
Waves. wave 2 is .618 times wave 1. Wave 3 = 1.618 times wave 1. wave 4 = .382 times wave 3. wave 5 = wave 1.
and wave 4 = wave 2.
IF ; wave 1 was 1 to 6.37. = 5.37. wave 2 .618 of 5.37 = 3.31. $6.37 - $3.31 = $3.06. wave 3, $3.06 times 1.618 = $4.95. $3.06 plus $4.95 = $8.01 wave 4, .382 times $4.95 = $1.89 ... $8.01 - $1.89 = $6.12. wave 5 = wave 1 $6.12 + $5.37 = $11.49.
oh haha. geeze that's scary. Joey and all, Help!
All started with IF:
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Post by peppy on Oct 21, 2017 21:53:07 GMT -5
I am wrong, redo. coming. I screwed up wave 3?
grrr, I screwed it up.
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Post by xanet on Oct 21, 2017 22:13:41 GMT -5
I am wrong, redo. coming. I screwed up wave 3?
grrr, I screwed it up. At least you know what waves are... so you are wave ahead of me!
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Post by peppy on Oct 21, 2017 22:20:17 GMT -5
Waves.
wave 2 is .618 times wave 1.
Wave 3 = 1.618 times wave 1.
wave 4 = .382 times wave 3.
wave 5 = wave 1.
Define wave 1. IF wave 1 is $6.89 the high minus point of break out $2.16 then wave one = $4.74.
$4.74 times .618 = $2.92. 6.89 minus 2.92 = $3.97. = wave 2.
wave 3 = 4.74 times 1.618 = $7.66
$3.97 plus $7.66 = $11.64. that's wave 3 target. check my work!.
wave 4 = .382 wave 3. 7.66 times .382 = 2.92. 11.64 - 2.92 = 8.72.
wave 5 = wave 1 8.72 + 4.74 = $13.46.
check my work! help
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
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Post by straightly on Oct 22, 2017 2:43:47 GMT -5
Waves.
wave 2 is .618 times wave 1.
Wave 3 = 1.618 times wave 1.
wave 4 = .382 times wave 3.
wave 5 = wave 1.
Define wave 1. IF wave 1 is $6.89 the high minus point of break out $2.16 then wave one = $4.74.
$4.74 times .618 = $2.92. 6.89 minus 2.92 = $3.97. = wave 2.
wave 3 = 4.74 times 1.618 = $7.66
$3.97 plus $7.66 = $11.64. that's wave 3 target. check my work!.
wave 4 = .382 wave 3. 7.66 times .382 = 2.92. 11.64 - 2.92 = 8.72.
wave 5 = wave 1 8.72 + 4.74 = $13.46.
check my work! help
stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
I bought the book on Elliott wave. But all it managed to do was putting me to sleep. Good night, waves.
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Post by kimi on Oct 22, 2017 7:45:35 GMT -5
"Believe it or not, there are only three rules when it comes to interpreting Elliott Wave. There are many guidelines, but only three HARD rules. These are unbreakable. Guidelines, on the other hand, are bendable and subject to interpretation. Furthermore, these rules only apply to a 5-wave impulse sequence. Correction, which are much more complicated, are given more leeway when it comes to interpretation. Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves. Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1. stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theoryIf your def. wave 1 is the real one, your assumptions are pobably right. Especially rule 2 will give us a large upside. But there are alternative readings. Wave 1: 1,84 to 2,37 Wave 2: 2,37 to 1,99 Wave 3: 1,99 to 5,92 Wave 4: 5,92 to 4,41 Wave 5: 4,41 to 6,97 Correction A: 6,97 to 4,80 Correction B: 4,80 to 5,72 Correction C: 5,72 to 3,75 End of grandsupercycle New Wave 1: 3,75 to 4,45 New Wave 2: 4,45 to (4,11?) Time will tell. Hopefully your wave 1 is the right one
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Post by cretin11 on Oct 22, 2017 8:46:39 GMT -5
This stuff reminds me of astrology. Seems like hocus pocus but it's fun when good things are predicted and then come true.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2017 10:46:28 GMT -5
This stuff reminds me of astrology. Seems like hocus pocus but it's fun when good things are predicted and then come true. There is nothing as good as a straight line correlation in a double log diagram. Or in the case of stock market prediction the old rule applies: if one method does not work, chose a new one and increase the number of variables you adapt..IMO the stock price strongly reflect the effect of manipulation and to a smaller degree script numbers and the potential of partnership. IMO best approximation of future share price are the options. If Our look at expiration date Jan 18 some % see a default but most a price range between 3-5. If you look at Jan 19 about 30 % believe in a default and then there is a rather flat distribution up to $12. (Out of memory.. if some is interested I suggest looking at the free IB option lab app.). Naturally this price range is based on today's knowledge. If scripts pop or partnership announced it would change.
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 22, 2017 11:05:40 GMT -5
This stuff reminds me of astrology. Seems like hocus pocus but it's fun when good things are predicted and then come true. There is nothing as good as a straight line correlation in a double log diagram. Or in the case of stock market prediction the old rule applies: if one method does not work, chose a new one and increase the number of variables you adapt..IMO the stock price strongly reflect the effect of manipulation and to a smaller degree script numbers and the potential of partnership. IMO best approximation of future share price are the options. If Our look at expiration date Jan 18 some % see a default but most a price range between 3-5. If you look at Jan 19 about 30 % believe in a default and then there is a rather flat distribution up to $12. (Out of memory.. if some is interested I suggest looking at the free IB option lab app.). Naturally this price range is based on today's knowledge. If scripts pop or partnership announced it would change. I can’t find that app. Is it available for the iPhone?
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2017 11:23:50 GMT -5
There is nothing as good as a straight line correlation in a double log diagram. Or in the case of stock market prediction the old rule applies: if one method does not work, chose a new one and increase the number of variables you adapt..IMO the stock price strongly reflect the effect of manipulation and to a smaller degree script numbers and the potential of partnership. IMO best approximation of future share price are the options. If Our look at expiration date Jan 18 some % see a default but most a price range between 3-5. If you look at Jan 19 about 30 % believe in a default and then there is a rather flat distribution up to $12. (Out of memory.. if some is interested I suggest looking at the free IB option lab app.). Naturally this price range is based on today's knowledge. If scripts pop or partnership announced it would change. I can’t find that app. Is it available for the iPhone? It is called IB Probability Lab and at least available for android system. It is free of charge.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2017 11:27:02 GMT -5
LosingMyBullishness and if you look at the 2020 puts there is zero belief for default since the bid on the $1 puts is ZERO.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2017 11:58:36 GMT -5
LosingMyBullishness and if you look at the 2020 puts there is zero belief for default since the bid on the $1 puts is ZERO. True. Have just look at it. Could be that these option are pretty new and onlz hardcore affrezzians had bought them.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2017 12:00:45 GMT -5
LosingMyBullishness and if you look at the 2020 puts there is zero belief for default since the bid on the $1 puts is ZERO. True. Have just looked at it. Could be that these options are pretty new and only hardcore affrezzians have bought them till now. This is what Jan 19 looks like
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2017 12:03:46 GMT -5
True. Have just look at it. Could be that these option are pretty new and onlz hardcore affrezzians had bought them. This is what Jan 19 looks like The flat distribution and the high default probability shows IMO that the market has no clue about how this story works out positively. 35% believe that MNKD will have failed by then.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Oct 22, 2017 12:06:04 GMT -5
This is what Jan 19 looks like The flat distribution and the high default probability shows IMO that the market has no clue about how this story works out if you are positive. 35% believe that MNKD will fail. Which also fits to the fact that this stock is one of the most shorted.
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