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Post by lakers on Nov 4, 2017 16:23:50 GMT -5
To Be fair, Dr. D deserves to be in good grace with Mnkd. He was an early investor, now 5% owner, and maybe 10% in the future. After Dr. Mann passed away, Dr. D could have made life hard for Mnkd. Instead he sustained Mnkd. He deserves to buy at $3.25, almost half of PIPE at $6. If Pps will recover to $20, then PIPE investors will likely forgive this treatment. That said, Mnkd likely wants to make PIPE investors profitable to grease the skid for the inevitable next PIPE in 2Q18. ATM is more of an emergency as its avg price tends to be worse than PIPE's. If Can, Mex, IC, MENA (S Africa, UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia) partnership can be materialized in 1H18, the next PIPE will be much easier if needed at all. Mnkd needs volume to pay for the plant's fixed cost, the insulin contract with AMPH (MC has said this several times) who may also help by forming a JV with a local partner in China. That said I prefer a BP invests $100M for 5-10% stake in Mnkd, 100% P/L on BP, 30% royalty, Mnkd gets paid for COGS, milestone incentive, some upfront money, and let Mnkd controls the Phase 4 trials in the U.S. The BP must not have any fast acting drug that may cause conflict of interest. After all, they need A to compete against Fiasp. Thus the list excludes Novo, Lily, Sny. It may include Merk, Amgen, Pfizer (the 3rd time is the charm). I still want Mnkd to choose it's own international partners. www.medscape.com/viewarticle/855774Mr Knox and colleagues analyzed market data for 121 countries, representing 96% of the world's population with diabetes. They identified a total of 42 insulin manufacturers selling their products in various parts of the world. The "Big 3" — Denmark-based Novo Nordisk, United States–based Eli Lilly, and France-based Sanofi — accounted for a total 93% of the insulin market by revenue and 92% by insulin production. Of the other 39, another four companies — Bioton in Poland, Biocon in India, Wockhardt in India, and Julphar in the United Arab Emirates— currently have their insulins registered and/or sold in 10 to 30 countries each and could potentially expand to help ease access barriers elsewhere, Mr Knox said. |
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Post by lakers on Nov 4, 2017 18:00:33 GMT -5
Dr. D is Deerfield who is helping a patient. PIPE is Private Investment in Public Equity. |
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Post by kc on Nov 4, 2017 18:26:37 GMT -5
Well Deerfield is fully engaged. They want to win and know the deal. Their confidenence was show in the extension to 2021 and the new reduced rate of 5.75%
That rate is about half of the old rate and shows that they think or know that the company is heading in the right direction and they are part of any decision that is made.
This is not their first rodeo and they see the $$$$$ ahead.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Nov 4, 2017 18:31:16 GMT -5
To Be fair, Dr. D deserves to be in good grace with Mnkd. He was an early investor, now 5% owner, and maybe 10% in the future. After Dr. Mann passed away, Dr. D could have made life hard for Mnkd. Instead he sustained Mnkd. He deserves to buy at $3.25, almost half of PIPE at $6. If Pps will recover to $20, then PIPE investors will likely forgive this treatment. That said, Mnkd likely wants to make PIPE investors profitable to grease the skid for the inevitable next PIPE in 2Q18. ATM is more of an emergency as its avg price tends to be worse than PIPE's. If Can, Mex, IC, MENA (S Africa, UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia) partnership can be materialized in 1H18, the next PIPE will be much easier if needed at all. Mnkd needs volume to pay for the insulin contract with AMPH (MC has said this several times) who may also help by forming a JV with a local partner in China. That said I prefer a BP invests $100M for 5-10% stake in Mnkd, 100% P/L on BP, 30% royalty, Mnkd gets paid for COGS, milestone incentive, some upfront money, and let Mnkd controls the Phase 4 trials in the U.S. The BP must not have any fast acting drug that may cause conflict of interest. After all, they need A to compete against Fiasp. Thus the list excludes Novo, Lily, Sny. It may include Merk, Amgen, Pfizer (the 3rd time is the charm). I still want Mnkd to choose it's own international partners. www.medscape.com/viewarticle/855774Mr Knox and colleagues analyzed market data for 121 countries, representing 96% of the world's population with diabetes. They identified a total of 42 insulin manufacturers selling their products in various parts of the world. The "Big 3" — Denmark-based Novo Nordisk, United States–based Eli Lilly, and France-based Sanofi — accounted for a total 93% of the insulin market by revenue and 92% by insulin production. Of the other 39, another four companies — Bioton in Poland, Biocon in India, Wockhardt in India, and Julphar in the United Arab Emirates— currently have their insulins registered and/or sold in 10 to 30 countries each and could potentially expand to help ease access barriers elsewhere, Mr Knox said. I wonder why Teva is not investing in MNKD. They struggle with their present business model but still have some money to invest. This time both parties would need each other. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Nov 4, 2017 18:39:40 GMT -5
TRx was low 400's when Pps hit $6.96 on 10/10. Street looks forward. Hmm. I interpreted this as a manipulation by Wainwright and MNKD to get a good price for a limited amount of stock. It was too coincidental that they sold at the right time. The price fell as Wainwright sold off again shortly after. What do you mean by "Wainwright sold off again shortly after"? |
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Post by kc on Nov 4, 2017 18:46:06 GMT -5
My guess is Teva is really struggling just to try to keep their share price up and fix the company if they can.
Who are some of the associates James Flynn has in past deals? Anybody do that research. Companies that made it? Who they were sold to later on?
Curious if James Flynn is in some of the same social circles as Jim Cramer. Perhaps they are in the same Hamptons social Circle.
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Post by LosingMyBullishness on Nov 4, 2017 18:52:31 GMT -5
Hmm. I interpreted this as a manipulation by Wainwright and MNKD to get a good price for a limited amount of stock. It was too coincidental that they sold at the right time. The price fell as Wainwright sold off again shortly after. What do you mean by "Wainwright sold off again shortly after"? Sorry if I remembered the company wrong who MNKD chose for the Private offering. What I mean is that I found it strange that there were suddenly a lot of big size buys up to a favourable price, then there was the offering and then it went straight south again. It looked like a short squeeze for a while but then came the offering. Why then and not at 10 or xx ? if the label was the main reason for the steep rise, why did it all fell apart so quickly? Was it really that big money believed that scripts would triple in 3weeks? I doubt that. Sure there were a lot of traders but was that 20mil shares in a day? |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Nov 6, 2017 10:28:59 GMT -5
I would say that was a pretty nice rejection of the first test of the 50d sma support after the sep/oct bullish breakout, nice reversal off that probe of support  lets see if it can take out yesterday's high at $3.36 The 50d sma continues to act as nice support as the week begins, the rejection last week says this was oversold, a break above current resistance at $3.50 would open the door to the recent higher levels:   |
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Post by cjc04 on Nov 6, 2017 11:09:20 GMT -5
I would say that was a pretty nice rejection of the first test of the 50d sma support after the sep/oct bullish breakout, nice reversal off that probe of support lets see if it can take out yesterday's high at $3.36 The 50d sma continues to act as nice support as the week begins, the rejection last week says this was oversold, a break above current resistance at $3.50 would open the door to the recent higher levels: I’ve thrown T/A out the window until “Dr. D” converts. I just hope the last 4 days was what they needed to convert tomorrow, after something good is said, but I’m just not seeing it. |
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Post by peppy on Nov 6, 2017 11:22:12 GMT -5
so many shares in play.
the Deerfield shares. How many did they buy this time?
the 6 dollar share buy in.
Tase. The shares come off the tase tomorrow.
Short shares,
Place the shares and sell the insulin.
Insurance coverage update tomorrow.
Everyone in insulin/pharma is watching. They are not blind; they can read continuous glucose monitors and tweets.
What MNKD has going for it, is the continuous glucose monitors. Without their proof, pharma and insurance status quo, along with the media would be believed.
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 6, 2017 15:24:27 GMT -5
The following is why Pps is pinned near $3.25 until 1/15/18. Deerfield as 5% owner of Mnkd can potentially sell short to achieve this. Pps was closed at $3.26 Fri 11/3/17. Uncanny! Guess we have plenty of time to accumulate or initiate a position! If Deerfield decides to convert on Mon 11/6/17 using avg of 3.26, 3.23, 3.01, or $3.17, or $3.25 whichever is greater. Pps will shoot up after that as they must know something and can't wait to convert at $3.25. Low Close* Adj. close** Volume 03-Nov-2017 3.25 3.49 3.15 3.26 3.26 53,27,200 02-Nov-2017 2.94 3.35 2.78 3.23 3.23 74,67,700 01-Nov-2017 3.28 3.36 3.00 3.01 3.01 59,68,700 So, don't be too greedy if you want to accumulate! It's my wishful thought that Deerfield will convert on Mon 11/6/17, one day before ER on Tues 11/7/17. Thus, investors may have a very small window to buy. Dr. D was clever by waiting till Pps trending down to ink the deal. Pps on Fri 10/20 was $4.11. Then, on Mon 10/23, the deal was announced. Mon is the optimal date for him to convert lest Mnkd announces any good news between 11/7/17 and 1/15/18. MannKind also entered into an exchange and fourth amendment to the Facility Agreement, pursuant to which $10.0 million in principal previously due on October 31, 2017 under the 9.75% Senior Convertible Notes will be deferred to January 15, 2018 (the “October Payment”), conditioned upon, among other things, MannKind depositing $10.0 million with an escrow agent, which is subject to reduction as the October Payment is satisfied through conversions to equity. Specifically, the Facility Agreement was amended and restated to provide that Deerfield may convert principal due from time to time into an aggregate of up to 4,000,000 shares of MannKind’s common stock. The conversion price will be the greater of (i) the average of the volume weighted average price per share of the common stock for the three trading day period immediately preceding the date of any election by Deerfield to convert principal amounts and (ii) $3.25 per share, subject to adjustment under certain circumstances described in the notes. Any conversions of principal by Deerfield under the Facility Agreement will be applied first to reduce the October Payment, and after the October Payment has been satisfied, to reduce other principal payments due under the notes. Pinned at $3.26. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Nov 6, 2017 16:00:04 GMT -5
One day of decent rise may/should force their hand to buy, unless they really like gambling. But until then, I think they are holding off to earn interest. And every day of interest earned (9.75% annual?) gets them a few more shares bought at $3.25, and it's essentially free for them.
This has been a small lesson in greed for me here. A couple of times I've thought: "Well, any more amount that they can get out of this will be such a small % that it's not worth keeping the PPS low". And I've been wrong each time. This stone has one more drop of blood in it, so keep squeezing - this is not a mindset I'm used to dealing with.
I don't really think this is hurting investors that are still thinking of buying. Lower PPS is good for buyers. Not so good for people who want to get a short term profit, or have options on the line.
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Post by peppy on Nov 6, 2017 16:38:58 GMT -5
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Post by promann on Nov 8, 2017 8:04:37 GMT -5
I'm predicting a higher then average volume day today.. Over 10 million.. anyone agree?
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Post by rombic33 on Nov 8, 2017 8:47:38 GMT -5
10 mil of sold shares? Or manipulated? Or bought?
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lets see if it can take out yesterday's high at $3.36
