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Post by porkini on Dec 10, 2017 14:41:54 GMT -5
All this probability of IF shares will be used... how about WHEN shares will be used and at WHAT price? I sure don't have an answer for that and I don't know all is going on behind the scenes, but from what we know that's happened the past year, what is the probability of those shares being used at a low, current, high, or extraordinarily high price? This information would be much more useful in my opinion.
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 10, 2017 14:58:09 GMT -5
akemp3000 ... It would help me visualize if you generated a cumulative distribution function curve  Would also be interesting to know a few years ago (assuming you were following MNKD then) what probability you would have attached to MNKD eventually using up all of their then authorized shares, as they now basically have. That would help me predict a probability for the accuracy of your predictions Nice. It would also help me if a cumulative distribution function curve could be created but by the time I finished, it would be obsolete I've followed and have owned MNKD shares since well before Adcom. I followed it live. I was on another message board for a few years before someone suggested I come here which was a significant upgrade. I would not have predicted MNKD using up all of their shares back then. I would not have predicted the company giving Sanofi excessive control whereby they could stagnate Mannkind for a period of time. I would not have predicted the CEO changes. I didn't predict the evolution of CGMs almost guaranteeing success for Afrezza by proving to the world that Al Mann's chart was right all along. I have continued to predict HUGE success for Mannkind based on superior science that will eventually become common in healthcare. I don't often predict time frames. I prefer to share positive comments and am especially inspired when I see negative comments proliferate. I will keep the probability of the accuracy of my predictions at 30% as there are too many variables that can shock us all which is common, i.e. Biomm, One Drop and Locust Walk were all announced in May without prior knowledge by anyone on this board. While we don't always agree, I do appreciate your passion and perspectives. This board certainly educates and keeps things interesting while we wait to find out who will be on the winning team. The great thing is that anyone can quickly defect and change teams though AF, SO and others will only do so after the fact. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Dec 10, 2017 15:41:37 GMT -5
akemp3000 ... It would help me visualize if you generated a cumulative distribution function curve Would also be interesting to know a few years ago (assuming you were following MNKD then) what probability you would have attached to MNKD eventually using up all of their then authorized shares, as they now basically have. That would help me predict a probability for the accuracy of your predictions Nice. It would also help me if a cumulative distribution function curve could be created but by the time I finished, it would be obsolete I've followed and have owned MNKD shares since well before Adcom. I followed it live. I was on another message board for a few years before someone suggested I come here which was a significant upgrade. I would not have predicted MNKD using up all of their shares back then. I would not have predicted the company giving Sanofi excessive control whereby they could stagnate Mannkind for a period of time. I would not have predicted the CEO changes. I didn't predict the evolution of CGMs almost guaranteeing success for Afrezza by proving to the world that Al Mann's chart was right all along. I have continued to predict HUGE success for Mannkind based on superior science that will eventually become common in healthcare. I don't often predict time frames. I prefer to share positive comments and am especially inspired when I see negative comments proliferate. I will keep the probability of the accuracy of my predictions at 30% as there are too many variables that can shock us all which is common, i.e. Biomm, One Drop and Locust Walk were all announced in May without prior knowledge by anyone on this board. While we don't always agree, I do appreciate your passion and perspectives. This board certainly educates and keeps things interesting while we wait to find out who will be on the winning team. The great thing is that anyone can quickly defect and change teams though AF, SO and others will only do so after the fact. Hey akemp, I've always enjoyed your posts and comments. I sure remember you well from the good ole Wild West Yahoo Message Board days. I believe MannKind is in the best position for success they have ever been in. I began owning shares in Mnkd in 2007. I was a lurker on YMB for a couple of years until I got the guts to post. Now I can't help myself, at times I need to post.  Keep up the good work. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Dec 10, 2017 16:30:14 GMT -5
Hi Central Coast. Thanks much. I've always enjoyed and respected your posts over the years as well. Those were certainly the Wild West days. I always believed Shkreli was in that mix but highly doubtful now I agree this is different than anything we've seen before. Thank goodness for Michael Castagna and his team. I believe they're going to get us where we want to go. Maybe soon we can have that meeting in Vegas we used to talk about! GL |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Dec 10, 2017 16:33:15 GMT -5
Hi Central Coast. Thanks much. I've always enjoyed and respected your posts over the years as well. Those were certainly the Wild West days. I always believed Shkreli was in that mix but highly doubtful now I agree this is different than anything we've seen before. Thank goodness for Michael Castagna and his team. I believe they're going to get us where we want to go. Maybe soon we can have that meeting in Vegas we used to talk about! GL I was thinking the same thing about Vegas. I think we will know when it's time to celebrate. Not yet, but it's coming. |
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Post by pat on Dec 10, 2017 16:47:03 GMT -5
I've also owned for many years. I'm starting to load up now.
I was always had a sneaking suspicion that shrikeli was smittysghost on ymb
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Post by cjc04 on Dec 12, 2017 13:20:36 GMT -5
BIG options play today..
8,000 calls & 8,000 puts traded at 5.00 for this Friday.
Same trade made for Jan 19th
Looks like a volatility play for post vote and again for post Dr D deadline.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 12, 2017 13:45:15 GMT -5
BIG options play today.. 8,000 calls & 8,000 puts traded at 5.00 for this Friday. Same trade made for Jan 19th Looks like a volatility play for post vote and again for post Dr D deadline. Yes, especially if the strike would have been $3. Not sure about these transactions. Interesting to say the least. Perhaps Options Monster or one of Sports' connections will be able to analyze these transactions. |
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Post by madog365 on Dec 12, 2017 13:47:14 GMT -5
smart play by a short hedge fund looking to unwind their position in the case some big news is dropped
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Post by lsl428 on Dec 12, 2017 14:20:31 GMT -5
BIG options play today.. 8,000 calls & 8,000 puts traded at 5.00 for this Friday. Same trade made for Jan 19th Looks like a volatility play for post vote and again for post Dr D deadline. Yes, especially if the strike would have been $3. Not sure about these transactions. Interesting to say the least. Perhaps Options Monster or one of Sports' connections will be able to analyze these transactions. its was done as a synthetic combo against stock is , looks like the synthetic price was 3.21 a share based on the calls being .01 and the puts went up at 1.80...it was a prearranged trade ...represents 800K shares not sure if that block of stock went up or if it will go up at the close on a cross.....its definitely not some spec position on a huge up move although id gladly take that in an instant |
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 12, 2017 16:58:07 GMT -5
Thanks, Isl!
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Post by kite on Dec 13, 2017 9:53:32 GMT -5
It's so quiet...
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Post by liane on Dec 13, 2017 9:55:54 GMT -5
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Post by kite on Dec 13, 2017 9:56:43 GMT -5
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Post by liane on Dec 13, 2017 10:01:16 GMT -5
Next we need paint drying.
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Keep up the good work.
