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Post by cjm18 on Jan 9, 2018 11:00:43 GMT -5
My understanding is a bit different: Sept 30th they had ~$20M left, gained ~$57M and reported a burn of ~$10M/month (up from $7.3M). That would leave them with ~47M around now. Adding details in the other thread Yes, about 46.8m as of end of year depending upon exact burn rate in 17q4. I don’t recall the burn rate for 18q1 being mentioned in the call nor that there would be advertising after the new year. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 9, 2018 11:11:33 GMT -5
Mannmade posted this post on another thread. 1. Deerfield Debt: The $10m note that is due this coming Monday, 01.15.18 will (my opinion) either be; a.) renegotiated to a lower price and exchanged for stock, b.) pushed back for another quarter, or c.) they will take the cash. My hope is that it is pushed back for another quarter as I think that would been seen as mildly positive. 2. Cash: My understanding of the current cash situation (and I could be wrong) is that Mnkd had approximately $40m coh at the end of 4th Q 2017, with a current cash burn of between $28m and $32m per quarter and a need to have $25m in reserve at the end of 1st Q 2018 per the Deerfield note. So it looks like Mnkd can solve this one of several ways: a.) Use the ATM to finance short term needs, b.) try and get the pps up perhaps with the announcement of some good news, or combination thereof, such as the NDA filing, meeting 4th Q guidance, increased insurance coverage (which we have been expecting in January 18), partnership announcement, STAT Study Results announcement (although I am inclined to think this will not happen until ADA) and then raise enough cash to take us 12 to 18 months out and hopefully much closer to break-even, or c.) raise cash at the current pps for another quarter or two.. In any event something will have to be announced regarding the cash situation during the first quarter. My hope is that they will announce some good news and with this, find a way to push up the pps and raise enough cash to carry us towards breakeven, taking this topic off the table for at least 12 months as one less thing to discuss while the company gains momentum and the pps in turns gains steam and stability. 3. Scripts/Revenue: are really all that matters. Everything else mentioned above whether as a specific topic or part of the several possible binary/good news events we think are on the horizon are just stop gaps for MNKD until scripts and the resulting revenue starts to climb in a bigger way. Once this happens then the stock will stabilize, the shorts will start to exit, and we can all watch this company grow over the next several years. I use the word "hope" above to express my choice of how I would like things to go in the short term, but of course as I have said before "hope is not a strategy." I am however of the beleif that Mike does have a strategy and we should likely see some of it play out in the next 30 to 45 days. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9329/fly-wall-hall-jpm-2018#ixzz53d5a7Z00==================================================================================================== "No matter where you go, there you are." causalinvestor wrote, My understanding is: At September 30, 2017, the Company’s capital resources consisted of cash and cash equivalents of $20.1 million (http://investors.mannkindcorp.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-17-22243&CIK=899460) In Oct they gained $57.7M. With a 10M/month burn rate, they should have had about $47M left in cash at 1/1/18. I can't find anything about changing the reserve. So, yes cash needs to be raised before 3/31/18. That will be necessary whether $10M is paid to Deerfield or not Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9329/fly-wall-hall-jpm-2018?page=3#ixzz53hidUowL |
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Post by peppy on Jan 9, 2018 12:37:51 GMT -5
on the bright side, since their are buyers coming in on the 15 min, I thought I would look at where the 20 day moving average is. I like the moving averages all lining up here. Price needs to head back up to 3 dollars.  |
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Post by peppy on Jan 9, 2018 18:03:45 GMT -5
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Post by rombic33 on Jan 10, 2018 9:02:55 GMT -5
So, do they prepare the MNKD day for downtrend? 1480 shares and minus 10cents?
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 12, 2018 11:40:51 GMT -5
www.stocksgallery.com/2018/01/12/mannkind-corporation-mnkd-is-at-2-51-per-share-and-deciphera-pharmaceuticals-inc-dcph-is-listed-at-24-99/MannKind Corporation (MNKD) is at $2.51 per share and Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (DCPH) is listed at $24.99 By Ross Arlen -January 12, 201802 MannKind Corporation (MNKD) Stock Price Key indicators: As close of Thursday trade, MannKind Corporation (MNKD) is standing at value of $2.51 with the falling stream of -2.71%. Active Investors have to observe some key indicators about shares of MannKind Corporation (MNKD). Let’s have a look at recent traded volume and some historical average volume information. In recent session, MannKind Corporation (MNKD) traded 1.68 million shares at hands. This volume capacity is dissimilar from 3 months average volume. Currently, the stock has a 3 months average volume of 4.58 million. Investors may be trying to identify volume trends over time. Some investors may look for consistency, while others may be interested in strange activity. Active Investors often continue a close observation on any stock volume. Volume is extremely important point of concern in technical analysis while price is the primary point of concern in technical analysis. Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given period of time, usually a day. The higher the volume, the more active is the stock. Technical Outlook: Technical analysis is as a method that applies to take a guess of future price trends through analyzing market action. The core idea of technical analysis is that history tends to repeat itself. That is why we can find certain situations in the market that occur regularly. These situations can be discovered by chart analysis and technical indicators, which we can use for our advantage – and that is precisely what technical analysis is trying to do. After keeping Technical check on movement of stock price comparison to its moving averages like 20, 50 and 200 SMA, we detected following trends of MNKD. These trends are grabbed from latest trading activity. These up or down trends are telling the direction of stock price on basis of moving averages. This analysis is focused on overall picture of trading activity. This presents short term, intermediate and long term technical levels of MannKind Corporation (MNKD) stock. Short Term: bearish Trend Intermediate Term: downward Trend Long Term: strong Trend MannKind Corporation (MNKD)’s current session activity disclosed discouraging signal for active traders. This is the signal from the 20-day MA which is used to monitor changes in share price. MannKind Corporation (MNKD) stock price dropped with downswing change of -2.98% when it was compared to 20-day moving average. MannKind Corporation (MNKD) is currently moving with downbeat trend. The stock showed unconvincing performance of -14.10% after taking comparison with 50-period moving average. When we have been seen snap of a longer-term MA 200-day then it shown beneficial position along an upward movement of 19.79%. After a long term look, we can observe that the current signal is Attractive for investors.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 12, 2018 12:01:41 GMT -5
"Technical analysis is a method that applies to take a guess of future price trends through analyzing market action."
IMHO technical analysis is wonderful for traders, not so much for investors as it places too much emphasis on the past. I don't see consideration for the high probability that scripts and therefore the pps will likely jump in the near term because of the most recent marketing push.
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Post by mnholdem on Jan 12, 2018 13:18:37 GMT -5
Barring a Hail Mary announcement during the 4-day trading week, there are around 26 million Jan 19, 2018 buy options (260k contracts) that will expire next Friday. These were originally LEAPS, most of which were bought years ago and include both pre- and post-split. If share price continues to be held down, all but the $0.50, $1.00, $1.50 and $2.00 strikes (post-split) will expire worthless and most of the $2 strikes will not be exercised because exercising them wouldn't recoup the premiums originally paid by investors for these contracts. It's unfortunate for many shareholders who invested in the company for years believing the share price would be much higher by Jan-2018.
Some will argue that the large volume of open interest for these Jan 19, 2018 options has been a major incentive for the Money Movers to suppress MNKD stock price and others will suggest that, once they've expired, share prices will begin an upward movement again.
We'll see.
Obviously, the risks associated with options can turn out to be painful. Unlike stocks themselves, you cannot hold them indefinitely and so MannKind's past failures can no longer be rectified. I have a few of these contracts myself and I agree with Nate Pile's advice. Never invest more than you are willing to lose. |
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Post by casualinvestor on Jan 12, 2018 14:31:03 GMT -5
I'm not very knowledgeable when it comes to options. But if the PPS is $2.40 for example, and the premium was paid months ago, why wouldn't someone exercise a $2.00 option for a 20% upside?
Also, looking at the options further: if the PPS dropped below $2.00, that would bring ~3000 puts into the money and remove ~6000 calls from the money. Considering the relative cheapness of shares to short (23% at Schwab), bad news next week might make that drop possible.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 12, 2018 15:38:02 GMT -5
I'm not very knowledgeable when it comes to options. But if the PPS is $2.40 for example, and the premium was paid months ago, why wouldn't someone exercise a $2.00 option for a 20% upside? Also, looking at the options further: if the PPS dropped below $2.00, that would bring ~3000 puts into the money and remove ~6000 calls from the money. Considering the relative cheapness of shares to short (23% at Schwab), bad news next week might make that drop possible. The $2.00 Calls would get exercised for exactly the reason you gave. Not exercising the Call would simply leave $0.40 sitting on the table. The premium for the Call is irrelevant - it's a sunk cost. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 12, 2018 15:53:09 GMT -5
"Technical analysis is a method that applies to take a guess of future price trends through analyzing market action." IMHO technical analysis is wonderful for traders, not so much for investors as it places too much emphasis on the past. I don't see consideration for the high probability that scripts and therefore the pps will likely jump in the near term because of the most recent marketing push. "Technical analysis is a method to foretell the future originally developed at Hogwarts, and generally considered an art not accessible to muggles." |
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Post by peppy on Jan 12, 2018 16:01:18 GMT -5
weekly chart  |
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Post by buyitonsale on Jan 12, 2018 16:11:06 GMT -5
Options are not for me I decided... so I just keep adding shares.. especially on down days like today  Go MNKD! |
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Post by olebob1 on Jan 12, 2018 16:55:00 GMT -5
the rate to a lender is about 24% at Fidelity but the borrower is currently paying about 49% or more, not cheap in my book
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Post by olebob1 on Jan 12, 2018 16:57:20 GMT -5
I'm not very knowledgeable when it comes to options. But if the PPS is $2.40 for example, and the premium was paid months ago, why wouldn't someone exercise a $2.00 option for a 20% upside? Also, looking at the options further: if the PPS dropped below $2.00, that would bring ~3000 puts into the money and remove ~6000 calls from the money. Considering the relative cheapness of shares to short (23% at Schwab), bad news next week might make that drop possible. The $2.00 Calls would get exercised for exactly the reason you gave. Not exercising the Call would simply leave $0.40 sitting on the table. The premium for the Call is irrelevant - it's a sunk cost. the rate to borrow is more like 49% currently at Fidelity. |
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