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Post by therealisaching on Jan 26, 2018 10:26:37 GMT -5
The only thing that matters is sales growth and subsequent profits. Improved label helps, improved formulary helps but sales growth trajectory needs to be such to demonstrate the product is commercially viable. So far, the revenue stream has not demonstrated that. I've been at it for nearly 10 years. Time is no longer Mannkind's friend. The company can raise $$ and limp along but the window to make Afrezza commercially viable in the United States is closing. There needs to be a big uptick in revenue in the next few months. $450K a week or so in revenue isn't even close. They need to get revenue north of $100mm this year in the US and I have not seen anything to demonstrate this will happen. It could change and start a strong ramp but there are only so many tomorrows. Agree in part = sales growth and subsequent profits are what matters.
Respectfully disagree that the window is closing. 4th qtr weekly sales are double of what was being generated at the end of q2. When Mike started at his first annual meeting he said $20MM in a first year launch would be considered successful. I realize one can argue this isnt the first year, but in many ways it is and its running at $20MM. Lets say there are 2 more doubles of growth during 2018 and 2019 is forecasting $100MM/year in sales I would say its on the right path.
A painful path that absolutely will require more cash. I'd certainly prefer another avenue, one with a partner with upfront cash. Its been tough to watch but sitting back and watching where the company is now vs when Sanofi cancelled the partnership I do feel long term success is the ultimate outcome here.
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Post by peppy on Jan 26, 2018 10:37:19 GMT -5
Today was so much fun...let's do it again tomorrow, eh? Here is my thought. Based on what occurred in October, the price will probably consolidate a bit tomorrow. Then during sometime next week, there will another leg up with good volume with a one-day increase of $1 or more.  Today's price action in many ways is reminiscent of what occurred on October 5, 2017, which, by the way is also a Thursday. We know what followed. mnkd.proboards.com/post/124389Nasdaq real time volume today, 49,879,664 shares. $4.95 up $1.41. up 39.83%www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-timeThe golden cross will happen tomorrow. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MNKD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p43042944282 this chart showing the Nasdaq summary volume on the day, 73.7 million. Compare it with today's (January 25, 2018) price action and volume. mnkd.proboards.com/post/136631MNKD Nasdaq real time volume today, 27,070,893 shares. $3.7975*. + 1.1075. +41.17%. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume. 38,053,716 shares. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkdshare volume fell off after Europes close. one more thing, usually a Wolfe wave is a change of trend. Just sayin. for instance when the s and p hit 666 in 2009, it came off the bottom with a Wolfe wave. you were right, I was wrong. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2018 10:44:03 GMT -5
The only thing that matters is sales growth and subsequent profits. Improved label helps, improved formulary helps but sales growth trajectory needs to be such to demonstrate the product is commercially viable. So far, the revenue stream has not demonstrated that. I've been at it for nearly 10 years. Time is no longer Mannkind's friend. The company can raise $$ and limp along but the window to make Afrezza commercially viable in the United States is closing. There needs to be a big uptick in revenue in the next few months. $450K a week or so in revenue isn't even close. They need to get revenue north of $100mm this year in the US and I have not seen anything to demonstrate this will happen. It could change and start a strong ramp but there are only so many tomorrows. Agree in part = sales growth and subsequent profits are what matters.
Respectfully disagree that the window is closing. 4th qtr weekly sales are double of what was being generated at the end of q2. When Mike started at his first annual meeting he said $20MM in a first year launch would be considered successful. I realize one can argue this isnt the first year, but in many ways it is and its running at $20MM. Lets say there are 2 more doubles of growth during 2018 and 2019 is forecasting $100MM/year in sales I would say its on the right path.
A painful path that absolutely will require more cash. I'd certainly prefer another avenue, one with a partner with upfront cash. Its been tough to watch but sitting back and watching where the company is now vs when Sanofi cancelled the partnership I do feel long term success is the ultimate outcome here.
Possible that a new paradigm in the Rx space due to Amazon changes things quickly and I appreciate your perspective but in my mind, $100mm in total revenue for 2019 isn't enough and in the world of big Pharma and diabetes, $100mm isn't even a rounding error. You could make a case that the real commercial efforts in the Castagna era are still in their infancy but the street doesn't give a hoot. Sales, earnings growth and cashflow are all that matter, everything else is noise. |
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 26, 2018 10:51:43 GMT -5
I wish Kovacocy and Feuerstein could be lured into a small room together. There would be a huge explosion and they would both cease to exist.
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Post by peppy on Jan 26, 2018 10:55:59 GMT -5
I wish Kovacocy and Feuerstein could be lured into a small room together. There would be a huge explosion and they would both cease to exist. I have thoughts like that. However, they do not involve Adam F or Mike K. COVFEFE. |
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Post by kc on Jan 26, 2018 11:04:37 GMT -5
Kovacocy. 3 mins ago: - "MNKD - the run is just beginning. Add at $3.10-3.15." This advice from the GREAT SALAMI or SWAMI (you make the call) and $5.00 gets me starbucks coffee today.
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Post by tchalaa on Jan 26, 2018 11:09:25 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 26, 2018 11:21:55 GMT -5
Perhaps today is a mere bear raid - yesterday, they were caught flatfooted, but overnight they coordinated a raid before the rally got out of control like last time.
But the other possibility is the Klingons and the Romulans found out we were double-dealing them, incensing both, and now those deals are off.
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Post by peppy on Jan 26, 2018 11:38:01 GMT -5
Perhaps today is a mere bear raid - yesterday, they were caught flatfooted, but overnight they coordinated a raid before the rally got out of control like last time. But the other possibility is the Klingons and the Romulans found out we were double-dealing them, incensing both, and now those deals are off. so you have seen the aliens in California? do you ever get to go to the underground facilities? so much military in California. underground under the military bases the word is 10 floors/miles deep. And then there is the underground train. |
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Post by bosephe on Jan 26, 2018 12:03:37 GMT -5
Maybe this is a cash raise by Mannkind like when the pps shot up to $6 and quickly returned back to the $2 range.
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Post by oneluckyday on Jan 26, 2018 12:08:54 GMT -5
Ok, I got in 2.65 on Wed so I made some profit so far... What do guys think about today's high and close? Also what do you think about next week's performance? Thank you:)!
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Post by alethea on Jan 26, 2018 12:59:48 GMT -5
Maybe this is a cash raise by Mannkind like when the pps shot up to $6 and quickly returned back to the $2 range. Kinda looking that way. THEY just slammed it down to 2.92 with 685 thousand shares in just 5 minutes. As Ben Stein calls out, " SEC, SEC, where are you SEC? Anybody seen Bueller (SEC)?" |
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 26, 2018 13:05:19 GMT -5
Ok, I got in 2.65 on Wed so I made some profit so far... What do guys think about today's high and close? Also what do you think about next week's performance? Thank you:)! You had you're oneluckyday yesterday. I'm afraid you've over-stayed. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 26, 2018 13:06:32 GMT -5
Ok, I got in 2.65 on Wed so I made some profit so far... What do guys think about today's high and close? Also what do you think about next week's performance? Thank you:)! Next weeks performance will be Shakespeare... full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Out, out, brief candle. |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jan 26, 2018 13:06:42 GMT -5
Maybe this is a cash raise by Mannkind like when the pps shot up to $6 and quickly returned back to the $2 range. Kinda looking that way. THEY just slammed it down to 2.92 with 685 thousand shares in just 5 minutes. As Ben Stein calls out, " SEC, SEC, where are you SEC? Anybody seen Bueller (SEC)?" The amazing leap yesterday and the crash today. You would think the SEC would notice something like that. This stock has been manipulated for so long I am not holding my breath that they will ever step in and prevent the manipulation. |
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