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Post by peppy on Oct 5, 2017 8:18:07 GMT -5
Added some Jan. 19 $4 calls to my position. Won't sell any below $10. May sell a bit at around $10. Will only sell the majority at $20-25 or above or upon a buy-out. IMHO, the fair value of MNKD is $20-25 right now, which can be achieved by a peak annual sale of Afrezza at $200 million gross, with $100 million profit and a PE at 20. Mannkind will easily reach this target by just being a niche player in any of the following markets: the pediatric market, PWDs using CGMs/Freestyle Libre/Ond Drop, and PWDs using Afrezza as a supplement to RAAs (just to correct high BGs). And the above does not even take into account the international market and the other TS applications. So I am in full agreement with Nate in that the fair value for MNKD is a market cap of $1-3 billion right now ($10-30 PPS). And if Afrezza actually becomes a major player in the diabetes market in general, i.e., successfully grabbing a substantial market share from RAAs, then the sky is the limit. Just think about it, what if tiny little MNKD has a $500 million annual profit? Where will the PPS be at? And if Afrezza actually becomes a major player in the diabetes market in general, i.e., successfully grabbing a substantial market share from RAAs, then the sky is the limit. Just think about it, what if tiny little MNKD has a $500 million annual profit? Where will the PPS be at?
Mike C our Lee Iacocca. 
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Post by cjc04 on Oct 5, 2017 8:21:28 GMT -5
No way am I going to sell. To the moon, or crash and burn for me. No middle of the road. I LOVE that this post got so many thumbs up! |
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Post by jbe on Oct 5, 2017 8:23:37 GMT -5
Yes script sales are primary, we don't know what is causing the share price rise, but ideally it's because of a jump in sales....or, could be due to maybe mnkd being sold and insiders are buying up shares to just below sale price, or, a large insurance company is going to improve coverage of Afrezza; or, could just be due to a wave of irrational exuberance. But, fingers crossed for good numbers tomorrow.
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Post by porkini on Oct 5, 2017 8:23:51 GMT -5
On or about 09/21, added modestly @1.94, long. Holding all from before and since spike (or is it a thrust?).
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Post by cjc04 on Oct 5, 2017 8:32:06 GMT -5
Granted a super small sample size above but with 93% so far either holding or adding, and those who have held and already have their shares lent out and are on a "dividend re-investment plan" with the proceeds, it is pretty evident why the the large short position is trapped now and back when they couldn't get out at the bottom near .13....thus the skew of call to put ratio climbing. I am selling my deep ITM and doubling positions rolling up the ladder further out. As far as my shares, like I said locked them up and lost the key. Are we having fun yet?  You make me feel smart Joey, that's exactly what I'm doing.... I have calls with up to 1,000% gains, and trying to roll them over but I can't believe how expensive they've gotten, and the volume feels like I'm following the herd.... I guess I'll have to decide soon if I am more afraid of being an idiot for wasting .50 on a $5 call OR Being an idiot for buying a $5 call for only .50..... But, my shares will NEVER be touched,,, all or nothing! |
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 5, 2017 8:38:11 GMT -5
Added some Jan. 19 $4 calls to my position. Won't sell any below $10. May sell a bit at around $10. Will only sell the majority at $20-25 or above or upon a buy-out. IMHO, the fair value of MNKD is $20-25 right now, which can be achieved by a peak annual sale of Afrezza at $200 million gross, with $100 million profit and a PE at 20. Mannkind will easily reach this target by just being a niche player in any of the following markets: the pediatric market, PWDs using CGMs/Freestyle Libre/Ond Drop, and PWDs using Afrezza as a supplement to RAAs (just to correct high BGs). And the above does not even take into account the international market and the other TS applications. So I am in full agreement with Nate in that the fair value for MNKD is a market cap of $1-3 billion right now ($10-30 PPS). And if Afrezza actually becomes a major player in the diabetes market in general, i.e., successfully grabbing a substantial market share from RAAs, then the sky is the limit. Just think about it, what if tiny little MNKD has a $500 million annual profit? Where will the PPS be at? I’m with you, those are my targets:-) Agree with every word! |
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Post by oldfishtowner on Oct 5, 2017 8:38:52 GMT -5
Not selling a share until it hits $50. THen I might sell 10% of my shares. Will hold most to provide income the rest of my life. I expect to see several splits (not reverse splits) over the years, increasing the number of share I hold several fold. I will accumulate an embarrassment of riches selling out of the money calls once the stock hits 100. This all presumes that the company is not bought out. I will be very sad if it is.
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Post by casualinvestor on Oct 5, 2017 8:39:05 GMT -5
Haven't sold a share yet, and don't expect to anytime soon. I've only known about this stock for about a year+ Not sure when I'll add to the position. I averaged down pretty aggressively for a while. Adding shares at $0.72 or $1.2 is a lot more meaningful (and mentally easy, since it's averaging down) than adding shares at $4.0 after a long run and averaging up At one point, I made a decision to buy a nice swim spa rather than invest more in MNKD at ~$1.50. I can't wait to swim in a tub that cost me $200k      Options will probably be the next way to invest |
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Post by boca1girl on Oct 5, 2017 8:58:09 GMT -5
Too funny. I hope you really enjoy that new tub. I’m gun shy on options. I lost BIG on Jan 2016 leaps, strikes at 3, 5, & 7 pre-split, that I bought soon after FDA appproval. And those were in my IRA so I couldn’t even write off the loss. |
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Oct 5, 2017 8:59:07 GMT -5
Granted a super small sample size above but with 93% so far either holding or adding, and those who have held and already have their shares lent out and are on a "dividend re-investment plan" with the proceeds, it is pretty evident why the the large short position is trapped now and back when they couldn't get out at the bottom near .13....thus the skew of call to put ratio climbing. I am selling my deep ITM and doubling positions rolling up the ladder further out. As far as my shares, like I said locked them up and lost the key. Are we having fun yet? You make me feel smart Joey, that's exactly what I'm doing.... I have calls with up to 1,000% gains, and trying to roll them over but I can't believe how expensive they've gotten, and the volume feels like I'm following the herd.... I guess I'll have to decide soon if I am more afraid of being an idiot for wasting .50 on a $5 call OR Being an idiot for buying a $5 call for only .50..... But, my shares will NEVER be touched,,, all or nothing! I just rolled my FEB 1's into double the amount Jan'19 3's and pocketed a nice difference....are we having fun yet? |
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Post by novafett on Oct 5, 2017 9:17:11 GMT -5
I bought in September at $2.17. Last purchase before that was 11/16 at $2.82. Wish i would have bought under a $1  |
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Post by humann on Oct 5, 2017 10:17:25 GMT -5
Added modestly, because though it is fun to see the crazy action, I'm still way underwater. So this is still averaging way down for me.
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Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Oct 5, 2017 10:22:45 GMT -5
I am so mercked UP right now |
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 5, 2017 10:27:18 GMT -5
Went shopping for options a few minutes ago - wow, lots of activity and they are expensive! Something very, very good is happening, and the label change may well have been the trigger for a deal of some LARGE sort.
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Post by compound26 on Oct 5, 2017 10:35:59 GMT -5
Went shopping for options a few minutes ago - wow, lots of activity and they are expensive! Something very, very good is happening, and the label change may well have been the trigger for a deal of some LARGE sort. Yes, they are becoming more expensive. For your consideration, yesterday I sold 30 Jan. 18 $5 puts and using the proceeds to pick up about 100 Jan. 19 $4 calls. If I did it today using the same strategy, the proceeds from that 30 puts will only be able to get me 30 calls. |
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