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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 3, 2015 12:02:45 GMT -5
just received this from Griffin Securities...
MannKind Corp. BUY
Company Update : Pharmaceuticals
Afrezza Makes Its Debut
GRIFFIN
SECURITIES
Member FINRA, SIPC
Keith A. Markey, Ph.D., M.B.A.
kmarkey@griffinsecurities.com
Stock Symbol NASDAQ: MNKD
Current Price $6.43
12 mos. Target Price $16.25
Market Cap $2,608.7 mln
Sanofi and MannKind issued a joint press release this morning to announce the official launch of Afrezza®, the inhalable insulin that offers diabetics an opportunity to improve their control of glucose levels with less risk of hypoglycemia. The Companies have not released much information about the launch other than to say that the drug is available nationwide. However, we understand that Sanofi has dedicated 1,500 sales reps to call on endocrinologists and primary care physicians who see diabetics often.
Afrezza packaging is suited to diabetics who are well controlled. According to the package insert, the drug will be available in five different dosage sizes that provide a 30-day supply: (i) 90 – 4 unit cartridges, (ii) 90 – 8 unit cartridges, (iii) 60 – 4 unit and 30 – 8 unit cartridges, (iv) 30 – 4 unit and 60 – 8 unit cartridges, and (v) 90 – 4 unit and 90 – 8 unit cartridges. Our discussions with patients and pharmacies suggest that the first, third and fourth package sizes are available presently. Thus, the initial dosage strengths provide a month’s supply for patients who require one of the three dosage sizes at a meal. Our understanding is that patients are eligible to receive one or two identical boxes per copay, but face a second copay if two different boxes are needed, at least under some insurance programs. This is a good starting point for the rollout, in our opinion, but it doesn’t provide for patients who might benefit from an extra dose for an especially large meal or just before bedtime.
The Afrezza difference is in the pharmacokinetics. As shown in the accompanying chart (below left), MannKind has created Afrezza to deliver insulin (red line in chart) in a manner that closely resembles the hormone’s release from a normal pancreas (blue line) into the blood. Their profiles differ significantly from that of rapid acting insulin analogs (black line), and it is the slow decline in insulin with the analogs that often causes the dangerous condition of hypoglycemia.
Execution moves to the fore with Afrezza’s launch. Investors’ attention has shifted to the drug’s acceptance via Sanofi's sales reports, and in the months ahead, it will shift further to progress on MannKind's bottom line. We will provide estimates with the release of the Company's results for the December quarter. Nonetheless, we believe the pharmacokinetic profile of Afrezza sets it apart from the competition and will enable it to secure a large share of the diabetes market. We continue to give MannKind stock a BUY rating. .
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Post by savzak on Feb 5, 2015 6:36:35 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 5, 2015 9:30:55 GMT -5
Wonder if the RBC Capital target was yesterday's late catalyst? Likely not, still think we have some news coming soon.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 5, 2015 12:22:30 GMT -5
MannKind (MNKD) Outperform Rating Maintained at RBC Amid Afrezza Launch
February 4, 2015 9:30 AM EST
RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating on MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD) with a price target of $13. Analyst Adnan Butt
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 5, 2015 12:36:42 GMT -5
MannKind (MNKD) Outperform Rating Maintained at RBC Amid Afrezza Launch February 4, 2015 9:30 AM EST RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating on MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD) with a price target of $13. Analyst Adnan Butt RBC has been a big supporter of MNKD for a while. I would like another big brokerage firm to start coverage of MNKD with a buy or outperform rating. Once we see increased coverage, along with buy/outperform rating, then the price will take off and $13 will be behind us! |
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Feb 5, 2015 12:41:16 GMT -5
MannKind (MNKD) Outperform Rating Maintained at RBC Amid Afrezza Launch February 4, 2015 9:30 AM EST RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating on MannKind (NASDAQ: MNKD) with a price target of $13. Analyst Adnan Butt RBC has been a big supporter of MNKD for a while. I would like another big brokerage firm to start coverage of MNKD with a buy or outperform rating. Once we see increased coverage, along with buy/outperform rating, then the price will take off and $13 will be behind us! SAdly, I don't think we'll see much love from the ANALysts or any new manipulating brokerage firm until Afrezza shows it can sell. Most see Afrezza as Exubera Jr. |
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Post by shortslaver on Feb 5, 2015 15:24:36 GMT -5
RBC has been a big supporter of MNKD for a while. I would like another big brokerage firm to start coverage of MNKD with a buy or outperform rating. Once we see increased coverage, along with buy/outperform rating, then the price will take off and $13 will be behind us! SAdly, I don't think we'll see much love from the ANALysts or any new manipulating brokerage firm until Afrezza shows it can sell. Most see Afrezza as Exubera Jr. Yes but once it does then they will raise their targets. And the stock price will continue to rise and the narrative will become more and more positive and then they will raise their targets again. I've seen this numerous times with stocks that were considered "cultish" or "risky" and then took off because the products were a success and then analysts who were once negative began raising their targets. The stock would continue to rise and they would adjust their targets upwards. See AAPL after the iPhone was announced and TSLA when the ModelS began to go on sale. |
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Post by mannmade on Feb 6, 2015 8:48:31 GMT -5
stafforddaily.com/target-price-and-average-rating-consensus-on-mannkind-corporation/334521/Target Price and Average Rating Consensus on MannKind Corporation MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) has received a Neutral rating, according to the latest rank of 3 from research firm, Zacks. The counter could manage an average rating of 2.25 from 8 analysts. As per the latest data, 1 analysts has given a sell rating on the shares of the company. 3 market experts have complete faith in the companys business and have marked it as a strong buy. 1 analysts recommended buying the counter. 3 analysts have rated the company at hold. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD): The stock price is expected to reach $ 9.75 in the short term. The number of analysts agreeing with this consensus is 9. The higher estimate for the short term price target is at $16 while the lower estimate is at $4. The standard deviation of the price stands at $4.4. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) did not disappoint in the market session and closed up 4.34% or 0.295 points. The session began at $6.97, and reached the lowest point of the day at $6.9, and ended at $7.1. Maintaining a positive momentum since the opening trade, the stock climaxed at $7.29. The volume for the day stood at 16,565,169 shares. Each share was earlier valued at $6.805. The 52-week high of the counter is registered at $11.48 and the company has a current market cap of $2,880 million, as per the recent data. The yearly low of the shares is registered at $3.8. MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD) reported a rise of 1,201,528 shares or 1.6% in the short interest. The remaining shorts are 30.5% of the total floated shares. The net short interest, as on January 15,2015, stood at 76,855,662 shares and the stocks days to cover will be 17 by factoring in the average per day volume of 4,475,961 shares. On December 31,2014, 75,654,134 shares were shorted.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2015 15:42:18 GMT -5
mannmade... wow, it seems like 9 out of 8 analysts think we'll go to $9.75. 112% of analysts think we're heading higher... that's impressive.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 7, 2015 17:56:33 GMT -5
dbc, I have to agree... It's nice to see even with what may ultimately be modest PT that a growing consensus of analysts seem to be positive on mnkd. When you combine with the Black Rock disclosure I am hoping to see some analyst upgrades shortly. I mean really how in good conscious can BofA maintain a $4.00 pps target? Really?
As many on this board have noted we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel imho...
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Post by bradleysbest on Feb 9, 2015 16:23:30 GMT -5
FWIW..... Louis Navellier has MNKD as a BUY on his stock portfolio grader. Rates MNKD as a "B" on his grading system.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Feb 25, 2015 9:25:11 GMT -5
Just received this from Griffin:
GRIFFIN
SECURITIES
Member FINRA, SIPC
Keith A. Markey, Ph.D., M.B.A.
Stock Symbol NASDAQ: MNKD
Current Price $6.72
12 mos. Target Price $16.25
Market Cap $2,726.3 mln
MannKind Corp. BUY
Company Update : Pharmaceuticals
Afrezza Debuts & Strategic Plans Emerge
MannKind and Sanofi are preparing for growing demand for Afrezza®. It’s still too early to get a read on uptake of the inhalable insulin, since it’s been on the market for little more than two weeks. We believe the initial demand is coming from diabetics who participated in the clinical trials and others who became aware of the drug’s unique attributes well before launch. By mid-year, sales should benefit from the marketing support, a larger dosage strength should be available, and favorable reimbursement policies should be in place. In preparation, MannKind is adding fill & finish production lines that will more than triple its production capacity in the June quarter.
The R&D pipeline will be refilled soon. MannKind plans to develop Technosphere® formulations of active pharmaceutical ingredients in three areas: pulmonary disease, pain, and cancer supportive care. The compounds will have a minimal development time, since they are already approved in other formulations. Also, the Company is targeting large markets in which a Technosphere preparation will offer a new approach to medicating. The first such product may launch in late 2016.
Operations performed in line with expectations to close out an eventful year. MannKind received $200 million via an upfront fee and two $25 million milestone payments, but no revenues were booked in the quarter. The accounting treatment for these payments and the Company’s share of the losses incurred by the partners in the early stages of Afrezza’s commercialization is somewhat unusual, as we discuss in this report. Otherwise, the quarterly results showed good control over R&D and general & administrative expenses. Operating costs should remain at levels comparable to or lower than those of the December quarter in the months ahead. We are looking for Afrezza to begin generating a profit for MannKind in 2016.
The Company will probably refinance debt that is coming due in August. The $100 million convertible debt has a conversion price of $6.80 a share, which is within reach. However, we believe MannKind would prefer to refinance, given today’s low interest rate environment and the opportunity to avoid diluting shareholders.
Our revised financial model points to a bright future. We continue to give MNKD stock a BUY rating and a 12-month price target of $16.25.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Feb 25, 2015 12:07:52 GMT -5
MannKind's Accounting Is 'Murky,' MLV Analyst Says
Last update: 25/02/2015 6:52:47 am
MLV & Co. commented on MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ: MNKD) following the company’s Q4 earnings report. The firm maintained a Hold rating and $7 price target.
Analyst Arlinda Lee noted that the company reported in line results but looked for data on NRx and TRx for Afrezza, as well emerging products in the pipeline, to be near-term catalysts for the stock.
Lee commented that the Afrezza inhaled-insulin product had only been on the market two weeks and that “impediments to the uptake of Afrezza include physician re-education and the necessity for prospective patients to make an appointment with a doctor for a pulmonary function test.”
The analyst note highlighted the company’s accounting and described it as “murky.” Lee explained that until the company’s profit-sharing partnership with Sanofi SA (ADR) (NYSE: SNY) becomes cash-flow positive, MannKind is unable to book upfront milestone revenues.
Lee thought investors should not expect to see revenues on the P&L until 2016 due to the accounting rules and limited availability of information on the product launch.
The company did mention the possibility that SNY, due to its reporting schedule, may disclose Afrezza sales earlier than MannKind.
Investors would receive more information as "early activity from the profit-share, including the recently earned $50 million in milestones, will be booked on MNKD's balance sheet, with some clarity on sales, profits or losses to be provided via MD&A disclosures in SEC filings,” according to Lee.
The $7 price target was based on a sum of the parts probability-weighted discounted earnings analysis. The firm expected fiscal 2015 to result in a loss per share of $0.28.
MannKind recently traded at $6.84, up 1.8 percen
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 25, 2015 12:11:10 GMT -5
Short interest report is published today after hours. I don't suppose we'll see much change given the price action lately, though. I don't mean to sound like Debbie Downer, so let me try to be a little more upbeat:
"I'm confident that it's only a matter of time (due to reporting of positive sales numbers) before short interest in MNKD starts to wane."
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Post by cybergym66 on Feb 25, 2015 12:41:52 GMT -5
Short interest report is published today after hours. I don't suppose we'll see much change given the price action lately, though. I don't mean to sound like Debbie Downer, so let me try to be a little more upbeat: "I'm confident that it's only a matter of time (due to reporting of positive sales numbers) before short interest in MNKD starts to wane." "I'm confident that it's only a matter of time (due to reporting of positive sales numbers) before short interest in MNKD starts to wane." .... "but time is a relative thing!"
I don't think the numbers will be significantly different from two weeks ago...could be up or down a few million. Talk to me when we see a 10 Million drop in short interest! I bet the SI is a little higher than before (less than 3 Million higher). |
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