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Post by mnholdem on Oct 28, 2017 7:45:13 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. Potential collaborators/partners will look a lot deeper than mere sales. Consider that MannKind has exceeded giant Sanofi using a fraction of the sales force and expenses. They've even managed to secure a label upgrade from the FDA on a tight budget. A deep-pocketed partner with the resources to launch a large sales & marketing campaign will recognize MannKind as a cash-bound biotech company with a potential blockbuster and view the situation today as an excellent opportunity to share in the profits.
Frankly, I think your logic is superficial.
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Post by mydogskip on Oct 28, 2017 10:14:53 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. Potential collaborators/partners will look a lot deeper than mere sales. Consider that MannKind has exceeded giant Sanofi using a fraction of the sales force and expenses. They've even managed to secure a label upgrade from the FDA on a tight budget. A deep-pocketed partner with the resources to launch a large sales & marketing campaign will recognize MannKind as a cash-bound biotech company with a potential blockbuster and view the situation today as an excellent opportunity to share in the profits. Frankly, I think your logic is superficial. With all due respect, wishful thinking on your part. Mannkind has exceeded what Sanofi has done but by how much? Not a whole lot. Sanofi wasn't even trying so the comparison is "superficial" on your part. There is a reason why Mannkind had to go it alone after Sanofi. And while I understand so many on here are emotionally involved with this stock, frankly, you don't have the facts on your side. To paraphrase Daniel Patrick Moynihan , "You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts." MNKD is a crap shoot. Technosphere has been around for a very long time and yet NO major pharma or minor pharma has licensed it. Why is that? Fact is that Mannkind has had very little success in commercializing Technosphere. That's not to say the technology doesn't work but not all good tech is successful. I still have a small investment in MNKD and I wish to see them succeed but the odds are still not in the company's favor as of right now. Scripts are still stagnant. That's the facts, man.
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Post by barnstormer on Oct 28, 2017 10:28:46 GMT -5
As we all speculate on the future of MNKD it is hard to discount what the real insiders know about what is going on behind the curtain. Kent Kresa would not put a $1M into something he didn't think would give him a solid return. He seems to be more present over the past year. I believe he was never a fan of Matt (Al's boy) and was the main reason Matt was replaced. I spoke to Matt right after the RS and he illuded to Kent scrutinizing all of his decisions. Shortly there after Matt was gone. Kent knows how to put deals together. I believe he was skeptical about Al's desire to partner with Sanofi but was over ruled. I don't think he will let that happen again. He knows what is going on behind that curtain and is willing to put his skin in the game. A little about Kent
When Kresa took over Northrop Grumman, he transformed the company which like GM was on the brink of extinction.[6] In a 2002 Los Angeles Times interview, when the company was on the verge of closing, Kresa was quoted saying, "We could just go out of business and give money back to our shareholders or we could reinvent ourselves...It became clear to us we could take the latter path." [7] Under Kresa's control, Northrop Grumman was transformed resulting in the acquisition of 16 companies including TRW and the Space Park in Redondo Beach, California.
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 28, 2017 11:13:53 GMT -5
Bravo... bravo!
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Post by chyaboi on Oct 28, 2017 11:18:53 GMT -5
I respectfully disagree. Potential collaborators/partners will look a lot deeper than mere sales. Consider that MannKind has exceeded giant Sanofi using a fraction of the sales force and expenses. They've even managed to secure a label upgrade from the FDA on a tight budget. A deep-pocketed partner with the resources to launch a large sales & marketing campaign will recognize MannKind as a cash-bound biotech company with a potential blockbuster and view the situation today as an excellent opportunity to share in the profits. Frankly, I think your logic is superficial. With all due respect, wishful thinking on your part. Mannkind has exceeded what Sanofi has done but by how much? Not a whole lot. Sanofi wasn't even trying so the comparison is "superficial" on your part. There is a reason why Mannkind had to go it alone after Sanofi. And while I understand so many on here are emotionally involved with this stock, frankly, you don't have the facts on your side. To paraphrase Daniel Patrick Moynihan , "You are entitled to your own opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts." MNKD is a crap shoot. Technosphere has been around for a very long time and yet NO major pharma or minor pharma has licensed it. Why is that? Fact is that Mannkind has had very little success in commercializing Technosphere. That's not to say the technology doesn't work but not all good tech is successful. I still have a small investment in MNKD and I wish to see them succeed but the odds are still not in the company's favor as of right now. Scripts are still stagnant. That's the facts, man. If MNKD is a crap shoot per "facts" , why are you here and still invested? Why write paragraphs about per "facts" no one has liked MNKD? Seems a bit emotional...
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Post by lb on Oct 28, 2017 11:33:13 GMT -5
"Until Mannkind can show Afrezza can sell, no BP is going to touch it. The opportunity to have done so is when Sanofi walked away and no deals were had. Mannkind has a lousy record of making deals (or bogus deals). As I have stated before, it doesn't matter if you lengthened the financial runway when your airplane doesn't have enough fuel to reach liftoff and you have one missing wheel."
Sadly, isn't that true. Wall Street is clearly saying: "Show me the scripts!" And the scripts are not picking up materially because Afrezza is not a Preferred drug on 99% of insurances' formularies. It is not preferred because doctors don't prefer it. And doctors don't prefer it because it's not preferred on insurance formularies. Try to break this vicious circle. With current rate of growth, it might take years before MNKD just breaks even.
It's almost like they might have more luck with another drug which would not have any competition at all or hardly any, would be given a green light by FDA, be given a preferred status out of the door, and sell like hot cakes. Didn't Mike mention something like that coming (pulmonary hypertension)? What was the timeline for the NDA he gave?
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Post by lakers on Oct 28, 2017 13:10:06 GMT -5
Ordinary I would agree, but Merck has been facing headwinds as European bio similar are cutting into its revenue. I read an article recently where the author stated, "Historically, patent expiration causes the vast majority of brand-name drug sales to shift to competitors, however, it's anyone's guess exactly how quickly that will happen at Merck. Merck's fast-growing drugs provide it with some insulation, and if the company secures FDA approval of MK-1293, a bio similar to the $6 billion plus per year insulin Lantus, then it may be in even better shape to handle the hit to sales caused by expiring patents." That got me to thinking that if Merck is planning to market a potential blockbuster basal insulin, why not consider a potential blockbuster prandial insulin -Afrezza? It may be reaching, but I'm not ready to totally dismiss the idea of a collaboration or M&A. Having Merck become a parent corporation to MannKind presents some exciting capabilities, PAH to name just one. MRK, MYL sued by Sny on Lantus patent Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/8972/mrk-myl-sued-lantus-patent#ixzz4wpLBYtfoWith basal blocked, Merck may need an ultra-fast-acting prandial to compete against the world renowned Fiasp (Fast-acting insulin aspart) already for sale in EU, Canada. With MRK marketing muscle, A could become a BB. So could inhaled Tresprotinil for PAH. There would be great synergy for Merck to own part or all of Mnkd. I believe there is better than 50-50 chance this will happen. The Q is how does Merck value Mnkd thru an equity stake, 200M for 10% ($2B), or an outright M&A ($3B)? One can buy MRK stock to participate in the TS success down the road. The fastest way for A to become a BB is to be owned by a committed, deep pocketed partner/owner who has several hundreds million marketing budget. It's hard to dink, dunk to a TD. One needs to stretch the field sometimes to put fear in the opponent.
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Post by straightly on Oct 29, 2017 0:28:19 GMT -5
"Until Mannkind can show Afrezza can sell, no BP is going to touch it. The opportunity to have done so is when Sanofi walked away and no deals were had. Mannkind has a lousy record of making deals (or bogus deals). As I have stated before, it doesn't matter if you lengthened the financial runway when your airplane doesn't have enough fuel to reach liftoff and you have one missing wheel." Sadly, isn't that true. Wall Street is clearly saying: "Show me the scripts!" And the scripts are not picking up materially because Afrezza is not a Preferred drug on 99% of insurances' formularies. It is not preferred because doctors don't prefer it. And doctors don't prefer it because it's not preferred on insurance formularies. Try to break this vicious circle. With current rate of growth, it might take years before MNKD just breaks even. It's almost like they might have more luck with another drug which would not have any competition at all or hardly any, would be given a green light by FDA, be given a preferred status out of the door, and sell like hot cakes. Didn't Mike mention something like that coming (pulmonary hypertension)? What was the timeline for the NDA he gave? "Until Mannkind can show Afrezza can sell" Afrezza is not the BB yet as we believe it can. But MNKD HAS shown Afrezza sell. MNKD has shown this at least on three occasions: 1. When Deerfield postponed its 8/31 payments. 2. When it sell its stocks to raise the $57m. 3. When it convinced Deerfield again to new loan terms. We are talking hard cash and cool calculations here. Emotions we little guys suffer are not in the equation.
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